利用虚拟经济的功能根治我国流动性膨胀——区别经济泡沫化与经济虚拟化的政策含义

我国经济高度依赖出口的状况短期内不会改变,这就意味着持续双顺差导致的资金大量流入的状态不会在短期内改变。在中国金融资产数量和品种有限的情况下,外部输入的流动性膨胀必然引起资产价格上升,加上流通中的人民币缺乏退出机制,持续的流动性膨胀将逼使中国经济走向经济泡沫化的途径,并使得紧缩、扩张、再紧缩、再扩张的循环周期越来越短。吸取日本泡沫经济的教训,借鉴美国经济虚拟化的有益经验,建立以数量和品种扩张为主的虚拟经济系统,充分发挥其流动性储备池的功能,一方面有利于建立人民币的输出渠道,从而有利于人民币的国际化;另一方面也能建立消除流动性膨胀的长效机制。     

金融结构变迁中的金融风险演化

鉴于美国次级债危机造成的损失正在金融市场上扩散,本文对金融结构变迁中金融风险的演化机制进行了分析,指出这次美国次级债危机是缺乏有效风险管理的必然结果。并提出了应该在世界范围内建立统一有效的风险管理机制的建议。     

Dynamics in near-potential games

We consider discrete-time learning dynamics in finite strategic form games, and show that games that are close to a potential game inherit many of the dynamical properties of potential games. We first study the evolution of the sequence of pure strategy profiles under better/best response dynamics. We show that this sequence converges to a (pure) approximate equilibrium set whose size is a function of the “distance” to a given nearby potential game. We then focus on logit response dynamics, and provide a characterization of the limiting outcome in terms of the distance of the game to a given potential game and the corresponding potential function. Finally, we turn attention to fictitious play, and establish that in near-potential games the sequence of empirical frequencies of player actions converges to a neighborhood of (mixed) equilibria, where the size of the neighborhood increases according to the distance to the set of potential games.     

虚拟经济与实体经济关系模型——对我国当前股市与实体经济关系的一种解释

近几年来中国股票市场与实体经济出现了明显的背离 ,本文试图从虚拟经济的角度解释这一现象。在对有关股票市场与实体经济背离的研究成果进行总结回顾的基础上 ,构建货币、虚拟经济与实体经济间关系的模型。分析发现 ,虚拟资产收益率和实物资产收益率的差异是股实背离的主要原因 ,而收益率差异又根源于股市结构和实体经济结构的非对称性 ,这种非对称性背后的根本原因在于资本市场体制改革的滞后。     

网络环境对传统会计模式影响的探讨

新技术的迅速发展使网络经济应运而生,网络环境具有知识化、虚拟化两大特性.本文从对会计人员职业判断的要求、会计职能向决策型转变、对会计核算的影响以及会计报表创新等四方面全面论述网络环境对传统会计模式产生的影响.     

论虚拟经济的风险规避

尽管虚拟经济在我国已得到了飞速发展,但其高风险性却并未获得足够的重视.本文认为虚拟经济中的风险主要由四个因素引起,即实体经济的不确定性、虚拟经济的投机性、信息不对称效应和制度性内生风险.而在虚拟经济风险的制造上,政府、中介组织和个体投机者扮演了重要的角色,因此,以这三大主体为线索进行实体经济的改造、加强对虚拟经济的监管、完善信息提供机制、鼓励金融体系的再创新便是解决虚拟经济中风险问题的根本出路.     

解析当代经济“倒金字塔”之谜——对20世纪80年代以来虚拟资产日益膨胀现象的思考

经济“倒金字塔”现象是金融全球化条件下虚拟经济加速发展的体现,是当代财富积累“价值化”趋势的反映。20世纪80年代以来,“倒金字塔”头重脚轻趋势日益明显,过度膨胀的虚拟资产容易引发经济危机,所以,应适度发展虚拟经济,趋利避害,保持宏观经济稳定,保障国家金融安全。     

An agent-based model of payment systems

We lay out and simulate a multi-agent, multi-period model of an RTGS payment system. At the beginning of the day, banks choose how much costly liquidity to allocate to the settlement process. Then, they use it to execute an exogenous, random stream of payment orders. If a bank's liquidity stock is depleted, payments are queued until new liquidity arrives from other banks, imposing costs on the delaying bank. We study the equilibrium level of liquidity posted in the system, performing some comparative statics and obtaining insights on the efficiency of alternative system configurations.     

资本市场效率视角:中国虚拟经济规模适度性研究

虚拟经济与实体经济有着千丝万缕的联系，其发展规模是否适度影响着实体经济的发展是否健康。通过从资本市场效率的角度探讨检验虚拟经济是否适度的方法，并对中国资本市场进行实证分析，发现中国资本市场效率不高，虚拟经济规模呈非适度性，究其原因须作进一步分析。     

Learning by matching patterns

We analyze a model of repeated play between two boundedly rational agents. In each stage each player recalls the outcomes from the most recent few rounds, calculates the distribution of its opponent's past reactions to this outcome pattern, and then optimizes myopically against this distribution. If both players use the same pattern length then the limit points of pattern matching are in the convex hull of the limit points of fictitious play. Thus if fictitious play converges into the set of Nash equilibria then pattern matching converges into the convex hull of Nash equilibria. If the players use different pattern lengths, the more sophisticated player may, but does not generally, succeed in playing as if it could perfectly predict its opponent's play.