Estimating nonlinear time-series models using simulated vector autoregressions

This paper develops two new methods for conducting formal statistical inference in nonlinear dynamic economic models. The two methods require very little analytical tractability, relying instead on numerical simulation of the model's dynamic behaviour. Although one of the estimators is asymptotically more efficient than the other, a Monte Carlo study shows that, for a specific application, the less efficient estimator has smaller mean squared error in samples of the size typically encountered in macroeconomics. The estimator with superior small sample performance is used to estimate the parameters of a real business cycle model using observed US time-series data.     

Research notes and communications management and organizational change: A note on the railroad industry

Hypotheses which relate top-level managers' age, years of company and industry service, and education to strategic change are studied with a sample of 855 managers from 27 railroads. Results generally support hypotheses that younger managers and those with less experience are more likely to alter their strategies with changing environmental conditions.     

中国自由贸易协定揭开隐藏的成本节约的秘密

当今的全球经济中,“中国价格”正在不断影响产品的生产区域和方式。中国具有丰富的劳动力资源以及低成本的生产结构。仅仅使用在其他国家生产产品的一小部分成本,就可以在中国生产出“中国制造”的产品。全世界的消费者当然希望能够获得更低的价格。     

Disclosure of allegedly illegal corporate activities and information risk

We investigate how the disclosure of allegedly illegal corporate activities such as the backdating of stock option grants affects the “information risk” of accused companies. This research provides evidence about the consequences of this risk change on equity values. We compare the earnings' response coefficients (ERC) for companies charged with backdating before and after it was revealed that these companies allegedly engaged in these activities. Our results show a U-shape pattern in ERC across post-backdating periods, suggesting a temporary decline in information risk. We also estimate the amount of company valuation losses that are based on the changes in the ERC. We find, on average, that a firm suffered approximately $26.2 million in valuation losses for four quarterly earnings announcements in the post-backdating period. Our economic significance analysis suggests that valuation losses related to changes in “information risk” provide some explanations for the subsequent market valuation consequences.     

NONPROFIT EMPLOYEES' MACHIAVELLIAN PROPENSITIES

Nonprofit organizations are held to high ethical standards due to their charitable missions serving the common good. Incidents of fiscal mismanagement within the nonprofit sector make it relevant to assay the ethical principles of employees. This study examines the level of Machiavellian propensities of US nonprofit employees. Results indicate Machiavellian propensities do exist in certain nonprofit employees and these employees agree with questionable behavior. Policy makers and oversight agencies may find these results useful in developing corporate governance and accountability measures for nonprofit organizations. Furthermore, board of director members may use these results to monitor employee actions and address management training.     

B‐TO‐B E‐COMMERCE: A CONTENT ANALYTICAL ASSESSMENT OF MOTOR CARRIER WEBSITES

An Internet presence is a critical early component in the process of building towards a fully operational and unified e‐commerce strategy. E‐commerce has significantly impacted logistics/supply chain strategies and the development and implementation of a website have become key issues for many firms within the transportation industry. This study provides an overview of website content within the motor carrier industry. Content analysis was used to assess the site design, informational content, and the interactive content of 152 motor carrier websites, and to compare the features offered on the Top 100 motor carrier firm websites with those offered on the sites of smaller carrier firms.     

The English Football Industry: profit,performance and industrial structure

The English (Association) Football League is a long established industrial cartel selling a highly popular product with only imperfect substitutes. Despite that, the majority of its member clubs lose money and the industry has faced successive financial crises over the last decade. This paper develops an empirical model of the financial performance of English League clubs using a high quality dataset of 48 clubs over the period 1974–89. The underlying model explains how rents are competed away through the maximising behaviour of club owners subject to production constraints. This model is parameterised by a system of equations which describe the behaviour of a maximising owner subject to demand and production constraints. The model is then used to examine the coordination failure which lies at the heart of the English Football League's decline and to assess the prospects for the Premier League.     

The Coevolution of the Real and Financial Sectors in the Growth Process

The role of debt and equity changes over time and with the levelof development. What are these changes, and why should theysystematically occur across different countries and time periods?This article characterizes financial innovation as a dynamicprocess that both influences and is influenced by the developmentof the real sector. It focuses on the emergence and developmentof equity markets, using a model that allows for growth andfor capital accumulation that is financed externally througha combination of debt and equity. As an economy develops, theaggregate ratio of debt to equity will generally fall; yet,debt and equity remain complementary sources for the financingof capital investments. The results suggest how various governmentpolicy actions might affect capital accumulation and equitymarket activity.     

Beyond Self-Regulation: Towards A Critique of Self-Regulation As A Control Strategy For Hazardous Activities*

After highlighting some of the key issues and positions in the debate around appropriate preventive regulation, the paper presents a number of observations directed at the proponents of greater self-regulation. These observations confront directly a number of familiar, but often unchallenged, arguments for self-regulation. More centrally we address claims concerning, the extent to which the chemicals industries have a good and improving ‘safety’ record; and whether the sector consists of companies both motivated and capable in the context of effective crisis and disaster management. Lastly, the paper sets out some ‘new directions’ for the nature and role of regulation in the effective prevention of crises. Thus the paper indicates a number of regulatory developments which are distinct from any shift towards greater self-regulation, but which would result in more effective crisis and disaster prevention in the UK chemicals industries and, indeed, beyond that specific sector.