Government Interference and the Efficiency of the Land Market in China

Municipal governments in China established direct control of the supply of urban land in August 2004. This paper examines whether this government action mitigates the efficiency of the residential land market. Using a unique data set of detailed land and residential community transactions with manually collected location information for residential land lots in seven Chinese cities, this paper analyzes the relationship between the land lease prices and residential property prices from the first quarter of 2001 to the fourth quarter of 2007. Results indicate that property prices determined land prices both before and after 2004:3, but the effect was significantly weaker after 2004:3. This is consistent with the hypothesis that the market for residential land became less efficient after municipal governments gained direct control of the land supply.     

Marking Single–Family Property Values to Market

This paper is the text of the 2001 Presidential Address for the American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association. House price prediction accuracy is a function of: (1) the procedure used to identify within–metropolitan–area housing submarket boundaries, (2) the econometric technique used to estimate the parameters of the house price model and (3) the characteristics of the local housing market. This paper empirically examines several procedures for delineating within–metropolitan–area housing submarket boundaries. In addition, the paper examines the increase in prediction accuracy that can be achieved by employing spatial econometric techniques to spatially adjust ordinary least squares house price predictions. Finally, the paper examines the influence that local housing market characteristics have on house price prediction accuracy. Housing market characteristics examined here are: (1) structural characteristics of neighborhood properties, (2) heterogeneity of the neighborhood housing stock and (3) housing market liquidity. Prediction accuracy is examined using hedonic house price equations with over 40,000 single–family transactions for Dallas, Texas.     

The Relationship between Median and Constant Quality House Prices: Implications for Setting FHA Loan Limits

This paper examines the relationship between the asset price of housing and median sales price. We demonstrate: (1) median house prices (as reported by the National Association of Realtors) overstate the increase in constant-quality house prices by about 2% per year over the 1976–1985 period; and (2) regional differences in median house prices and their rates of increase, respectively, are systematically related to regional differences in real incomes and their rates of increase. We use these results to evaluate the recent proposal to raise the FHA maximum loan limit ceiling from the current ceiling of $124,750 to 95% of the area median house price.     

Spatial Autoregression Techniques for Real Estate Data

This paper describes how spatial techniques can be used to improve the accuracy of market value estimates obtained using multiple regression analysis. Rather than eliminating the problem of spatial residual dependencies through the inclusion of many independent variables, spatial statistical methods typically keep fewer independent variables and augment these with a simple model of the spatial error dependence. We discuss alternative spatial autoregression model specifications, estimation methods, and prediction procedures. An empirical example is provided in the appendix.     

Cash to spend: IPO wealth and house prices

This study demonstrates the impact of initial public offerings (IPOs) on local house prices. Applying spatial difference-in-differences methods to IPOs in California from 1993 to 2017, we find house prices increase by 0.7%–0.9% near an IPO firm's headquarters around filing and issuing dates. Upon lockup expiration, price changes depend on postissuance returns. Treating the San Francisco Bay as a commuting barrier, we identify sustained price increases after filings and temporary increases after issuing and lockup expiration. We also confirm post-IPO price divergence between the treatment and synthetic control areas. Our findings indicate the effect of liquid wealth under mild financial constraints.