Inflation in New EU Member States: A Domestically or Externally Driven Phenomenon?

This article empirically analyzes the domestic and external inflation determinants for eight non-eurozone new EU member states (NMS), using a structural vector autoregression model. Results indicate that foreign shocks are a major factor in explaining inflation dynamics in the medium run, while the short-run inflation dynamics are mainly influenced by domestic shocks. Moreover, the importance of the foreign inflation component has had a rising trend in the precrisis period in all NMS and mostly coincided with their accession to the EU. This trend ended with the onset of the global financial crisis. The study implicates the need to augment the classical Taylor rule with foreign factors in the case of small open economies.     

Context-Sensitive Access Control Model for Government Services

During the past two decades, e-government information systems have become less paper-based and more computer-based. Those information systems usually take the form of workflow systems. Due to the large social impact of e-government systems, computer security plays a pivotal role in ensuring its efficiency and effectiveness. Access control is one of the key aspects of computer security. Current access control models do not take into account the context of the system and its environment. In this article, we argue that a formal context-sensitive access control model can improve the development of e-government workflow systems and present a particular context-sensitive access control model. The subject of the article is a specification of the context-sensitive access control model for business processes (COBAC). By using a context-sensitive access control, it is possible to define more sophisticated access control policies that cannot be implemented by existing access control models. The COBAC's context is modeled using Web Ontology Language (OWL) in order to provide formal representation of context, rich representation of diverse contextual information, semantic interoperability between various context-aware systems, and a high degree of inference making. The presented model is applicable in different e-government systems, and supports the definition of access control policies for both simple and complex business processes. The model's prototype is verified by a case study on a real e-government business process—the national petty offense trial proceedings.     

Investment opportunities in the source country and temporary migration

Abstract This paper examines how attractive investment opportunities available to temporary migrants at home affect their saving behaviour and the optimal duration of stay abroad. The model predicts an inverse U‐shaped relationship between migration duration and the expected rate of return on repatriated savings. A higher rate provides an incentive to go back earlier and consume less abroad, while it can also trigger emigration aimed at generating the savings required for investment after return. The paper illustrates how the behaviour of temporary migrants reflects the interaction between their preferences and the opportunities available in labour and capital markets of both countries.     

A Conversation with James O. Ramsay

Jim Ramsay was born on September 5, 1942, in Prince George, British Columbia. He pursued undergraduate studies at the University of Alberta, where he completed a BEd in 1964 with a major in English and a minor in mathematics. He then specialized in statistics and psychometry, earning a PhD in psychology from Princeton University in 1966. After holding a temporary lectureship in the Department of Psychology at University College London for one year, he joined the Department of Psychology at McGill University, where he rose through the academic ranks. He was chair of his department from 1986 to 1989 and spent sabbatical leaves in Cambridge, Grenoble, and Toulouse. He was named professor emeritus upon his retirement in 2007. Jim is the author of four influential books and over 100 peer‐reviewed articles in statistical and psychometric journals. He developed much of the statistical theory behind multidimensional scaling and is widely recognized as the founder of functional data analysis. Three of his papers were read to the Royal Statistical Society, and another won The Canadian Journal of Statistics 2000 Best Paper Award. The Statistical Society of Canada (SSC) awarded him a Gold Medal for research in 1998 and an honorary membership in 2012. Jim was president of the Psychometric Society in 1981–82 and president of the SSC in 2002–03. The following conversation took place at Jim's home in Ottawa, Ontario, on March 14 and April 4, 2012.     

Cagan’s paradox and money demand in hyperinflation: Revisited at daily frequency

Using daily data the Cagan money demand is estimated and accepted for the most severe portion of Serbia’s 1992–1993 hyperinflation, i.e. its last 6 months. An implication is that the public adjusted daily throughout this extreme period. Moreover, the obtained semi-elasticity estimates are by far lower than those previously found using monthly data sets. Consequently, the daily estimates reject the longstanding Cagan’s paradox, based on monthly studies, by showing that the economy has been on the correct, increasing side of the Laffer curve almost through the end of hyperinflation. This strongly supports the view that hyperinflation is triggered and driven all way through its end by the government’s hunt for non-decreasing seigniorage. Daily adjustments of public in hyperinflation can account for the difference between the results obtained at daily and monthly frequencies, calling into question the latter. Some evidence is offered that the findings of this paper may hold for other hyperinflations.     

Useful measures in the field of time and dimensional rationalisation of manual training lessons

Schoolwork, especially lessons in manual skills is often associated with various ergonomics stresses. These stresses are the result not only of school obligations but also of the physical working environment and inadequate lesson planning. Much can be done in this field if certain approaches are taken into consideration at the work planning stage. Thus we can use certain analytical methods, such as the Method of Temporary Observations (Multi-Moment Method) and OWAS (a method for the evaluation of postural load during work), when positioning stressful lesson factors. This can be done in a relatively simple way in the field of time rationalisation as well as in the field of dimensional work adjustment to pupils. Research results in this paper show that by using a planned directed approach in this field, it is possible to achieve, a higher level of efficiency with normal levels of fatigue.     

Distribution of Dixon’s statistics in the case of an exponential population

Summary The distributions of Dixon’s statistics for the case of the sample from an exponential population are found. For some of these statistics the upper 100 α percentage points (α=0,1; 0,05 and 0,01) are tabulated.

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Zusammenfassung Die Verteilungen der Variablen von Dixon werden für den Fall der Stichproben aus einer exponentialen Grundgesamtheit gefunden. Für einige dieser Variablen werden die oberen 100 α Prozentpunkte (α=0,1; 0,05 und 0,01) tabelliert.

     

Mean squared error of the empirical best linear unbiased predictor in an orthogonal finite discrete spectrum linear regression model

The mean squared error (MSE) of the empirical best linear unbiased predictor in an orthogonal finite discrete spectrum linear regression model is derived and a comparison with the MSE of the best linear unbiased predictor in this model is made. It is shown that under weak conditions these two mean square errors are asymptotically the same.