The effect on stockholder wealth of product recalls and government action: The case of Toyota's accelerator pedal recall

We analyze the effect of Toyota's faulty accelerator pedal on stockholder wealth. Using the event study methodology, we show that a major recall in January of 2010 is associated with a 19% fall in the company's cumulative abnormal returns. Continued concerns that Toyota was unable to identify and adequately fix the problem prompted the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration to conduct its own investigation in March, 2010. The results of this government investigation exonerated the company and Toyota's cumulative abnormal returns rose by almost 9%. The Toyota case provides an opportunity to study a product recall with both company error and a government action that addressed concerns about the safety of the product.     

Testing conditional asset pricing models: An emerging market perspective

The CAPM as the benchmark asset pricing model generally performs poorly in both developed and emerging markets. We investigate whether allowing the model parameters to vary improves the performance of the CAPM and the Fama–French model. Conditional asset pricing models scaled by conditioning variables such as Trading Volume and Dividend Yield generally result in small pricing errors. However, a graphical analysis reveals that the predictions of conditional models are generally upward biased. We demonstrate that the bias in prediction may be the consequence of ignoring frequent large variation in asset returns caused by volatile institutional, political and macroeconomic conditions. This is characterised by excess kurtosis. An unconditional Fama–French model augmented with a cubic market factor performs the best among some competing models when local risk factors are employed. Moreover, the conditional models with global risk factors scaled by global conditioning variables perform better than the unconditional models with global risk factors.     

Variations in sovereign credit quality assessments across rating agencies

We investigate agency variation in credit quality assessment (Standard and Poor’s vs. Moody’s vs. Fitch) employing sovereign ratings data for 129 countries, spanning the period 1990–2006. While we find that the credit rating agencies often disagree about credit quality, it is usually confined to one or two notches on the finer scale. We find that several variables have varying importance in explaining ratings across agencies which leads us to conclude that material heterogeneity exists between them. Also, while watch and outlook procedures are generally strong predictors of rating changes relative to other public data, additional significant variables suggest that it might be possible to augment these agency data to provide better forecasts of future rating changes.     

Returns and volatility in the Kuala Lumpur crude

This article investigates the determinants of daily returns and volatility in the Kuala Lumpur crude palm oil futures market over the period 1980 to 1994. We find significant evidence of month and open interest effects in returns and also find strong evidence of daily, monthly, yearly, volume and open interest effects in volatility when ARCH/ GARCH models are used to estimate volatility. © 1998 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 18:985–999, 1998     

Agricultural policies and food systems: Priorities for indicator development

Existing indicators of agricultural protection and support were developed primarily to gauge the market and welfare effects of government policies. They have shed light on a wider range of impacts through their use in economic models and empirical analysis. The rising scale of support to agriculture globally, and continued reliance on market distorting policy instruments, make this work as important as ever. Deeper investments are nonetheless needed to address heightened concerns about the spill-over impacts of agricultural policies on the performance of food systems, in particular with respect to food security and nutrition, rural livelihoods, resource use and the environment, and global emissions. A first area for development is improved measures of policies to correct agriculture's externalities. A priority here is to develop a carbon tax equivalent of sectoral mitigation efforts. A second area is to provide a clearer delineation of government spending on private versus public goods. This would make a valuable contribution to a ‘repurposing’ agenda that seeks to identify how agricultural budgets can be spent more effectively, as well as the scope for transferring resources to wider social priorities, such as public health and climate action.     

Do insurers adjust prices for the adoption of loss prevention technologies? Evidence from Danish municipal contracts

Using data from 40 Danish municipalities on building characteristics, loss prevention technologies, insurance claims, and insurance bids from 2008 to 2019, we investigate whether and how loss prevention technologies influenced contract prices. The insurance bids cover a variety of municipal buildings across a range of risks including fire, water leakage, and building security as well as structure detection and alarm systems. The study shows that the magnitude of historical claims may affect both pricing offers and interest in loss prevention technologies. We do not find that loss prevention technologies have any significant influence on contract price. This suggests inefficiencies in the market from imperfect information.