Learning ahead of time: how evaluation of foresight may add to increased trust,organizational learning and future oriented policy and strategy

Evaluation of futures research (foresight) consists of three elements: quality, success, and impact of a study. Futures research ought to be methodologically and professionally sound, should to a certain extent be accurate, and should have a degree of impact on strategic decision making and policy-making. However, in the case of futures studies, the one does not automatically lead to the other. Quality of method does not ensure success, just as quality and success do not guarantee impact. This article explores the new paths for understanding evaluating of futures studies that are provided by the various articles in this special issue and sets out an agenda for next steps with regard to evaluation of futures research. The more structural and systematic evaluation can result in an increased level of trust in futures research, which may in turn lead to more future oriented strategy, policy and decision making. Therefore, evaluation should be seen as more than a burden of accountability – albeit important as accountability is – but as an investment in the credibility and impact of the profession. It may set in motion a cycle of mutual learning that will not only improve the capacity of futures-researchers but will also enhance the capacity and likeliness of decision-makers to apply insight from futures research.     

Life satisfaction and self-employment in different types of occupations

In this research, we investigate whether a positive relationship between life satisfaction and self-employment (versus paid employment) exists while simultaneously considering two occupational dimensions: white-collar versus blue-collar work and high-skilled versus low-skilled work. Using Eurobarometer data for a large number of European countries (2008–2012), our findings confirm that self-employed workers are more satisfied with their lives than paid employees are. A life satisfaction premium is also found when the self-employed and paid employees are compared within similar occupations in terms of collar type and skill level. Finally, self-employment can help to overcome low life satisfaction scores associated with blue-collar and low-skilled work.     

An Ethnographic Perspective on Urban Planning in Brazil: Temporality,Diversity and Critical Urban Theory

This article provides an ethnographic perspective on urban planning by presenting the creative practices of marginalized slum residents in Recife, Northeast Brazil, who are affected by planners’ decisions. It argues that such a perspective contributes to current critical urban theory in three ways. First, while many studies of urban planning follow the temporality of the timeframe of a particular project (‘project time’), this analysis emphasizes the timeframe of the lives of the affected residents (‘people's time’). Second, it attends to diversity, taking account of the variety of affected residents and the diverse consequences of urban planning on their lives. Third, it shows how urban interventions — similar to marriage, divorce, the birth of children and the death of loved ones — are high-impact life events for the urban poor. Finally, the article assesses the engagement between ethnography and critical urban theory and argues in favour of ‘grounding’ the latter better in the analysis of actual practices and experiences.     

International investment positions revisited: Investor heterogeneity and individual security characteristics

This paper contributes to the literature by empirically documenting the importance of investor heterogeneity and security level characteristics for international investment positions. We estimate a standard gravity model to explain holdings in individual bonds and stocks for euro area investors covering 2013Q4–2018Q4. First, our results confirm the importance of market size and distance, but there are significant differences between banks, insurance companies and pension funds, investment funds, households and other investors. Second, we show the statistical significance and economic relevance of security characteristics such as currency, bond maturity and dividend yield. Third, the results are robust to including domestic holdings.     

Stakeholders’ Information Needs,Cost System Design,and Cost System Effectiveness in Dutch Local Government

This study examines the relationships between stakeholders’ information needs, cost system design, and cost system effectiveness in local government, using a dataset of survey responses from 71 Dutch municipalities. Three cost system design characteristics are examined: (a) the complexity and (b) the inclusiveness of cost systems, and (c) their understandability for non‐financial internal users. These characteristics are shown to be only partly related to each other, and to differ in the extent to which they are related to the information needs of internal and external stakeholders, as well as to three cost system effectiveness characteristics.     

The Governance of Corporate Sustainability: Empirical Insights into the Development,Leadership and Implementation of Responsible Business Strategy

This article explores how corporate governance processes and structures are being used in large Australian companies to develop, lead and implement corporate responsibility strategies. It presents an empirical analysis of the governance of sustainability in fifty large listed companies based on each company’s disclosures in annual and sustainability reports. We find that significant progress is being made by large listed Australian companies towards integrating sustainability into core business operations. There is evidence of leadership structures being put in place to ensure that board and senior management are involved in sustainability strategy development and are then incentivised to monitor and ensure implementation of that strategy through financial rewards. There is evidence of a willingness to engage and communicate clearly the results of these strategies to interested stakeholders. Overall, there appears to be a developing acceptance amongst large corporations that efforts towards improved corporate sustainability are not only expected but are of value to the business. We suggest that this is evidence of a managerial shift away from an orthodox shareholder primacy understanding of the corporation towards a more enlightened shareholder value approach, often encompassing a stakeholder-orientated view of business strategy. However, strong underlying tensions remain due to the insistent market emphasis on shareholder value.     

Private transaction costs of participation in water quality improvement programs for Australia's Great Barrier Reef: Extent,causes and policy implications

The direct private cost to landholders of participating in programs that result in improved farming activities (IFAs) is generally well understood. However, the private indirect or transaction costs, such as the cost of a landholder's time and the expense to learn about IFAs and apply for assistance to implement these changes on‐farm, are not so well understood. Where these have been studied, they have been shown to be extensive. We assess the extent and causes of private transaction costs incurred by sugarcane growers participating in the Australian Government's Reef Rescue scheme which pays farmers to adopt environmentally beneficial farm management practices. Utilising a mail‐out‐mail‐back survey of 110 growers, we found that the average total transaction cost per farm of participating in the program was AU$8389. The average total transaction costs per farm as a percentage of the average funding provided was 38 per cent. We also assessed which type of improved farming activity (soil, nutrient, pest or water management) generated the greatest transaction costs and how landholder characteristics such as bounded rationality, opportunism and social connection impacted on the extent of transaction costs.     

Integrating futures studies with organizational development: Design options for the scenario project ‘RWS2020’

Most futures studies are not used by managers and strategists and do not influence the direction of organizational development. Although the contribution of future studies to management is in theory all but self-evident, the practice in organizations is that futures knowledge is hardly used, or at most, is used selectively and strategically (‘politically’). This article acknowledges that gap and claims that it is a fundamental divide between to very different domains. However, out of that re-conceptualization of the relation between futures studies and management, a new direction for an integrated praxis arises. In an empirical case study, we show that by means of an intelligent process-design and professional balancing of several key-dilemmas, futures studies can be connected to management processes and organizational development. The future can be brought back into the everyday practice of management. However, in order to do so, the futures field needs to set aside some of its methodological claims and move towards the field of strategic management. Not because futurists need to abandon their specific knowledge and expertise, but to make the most of it.     

The relationship between product diversity, usage of advanced manufacturing technologies and activity-based costing adoption

This paper examines the associations between product diversity, usage of advanced manufacturing technologies (AMT) and activity-based costing (ABC) adoption. Theory strongly suggests that product diversity is a major determinant of the demand for ABC systems. To date, the results of empirical research on the relationship between product diversity and ABC adoption have generally been inconclusive, however, suggesting that there either may be no strong relationship, or that methodological issues may have prevented researchers from consistently finding it. Using a dataset of survey responses from 191 Dutch, medium-sized manufacturing firms, this paper re-examines the relationship between product diversity and ABC adoption. Improving upon the measurement of product diversity and distinguishing between ABC adoption and use, it examines whether the relationship is curvilinear (inverted U-shaped) and/or moderated by usage of AMT. The paper contributes to the literature by showing that, consistent with the underlying theory, product diversity, on average, is positively related to both ABC adoption and ABC use, but also that these relationships are indeed inverted U-shaped and that the relationship with ABC use is negatively moderated by usage of AMT.