Prediction of the Indian summer monsoon using a stacked autoencoder and ensemble regression model

The study of climatic variables that govern the Indian summer monsoon has been widely explored. In this work, we use a non-linear deep learning-based feature reduction scheme for the discovery of skilful predictors for monsoon rainfall with climatic variables from various regions of the globe. We use a stacked autoencoder network along with two advanced machine learning techniques to forecast the Indian summer monsoon. We show that the predictors such as the sea surface temperature and zonal wind can predict the Indian summer monsoon one month ahead, whereas the sea level pressure can predict ten months before the season. Further, we also show that the predictors derived from a combination of climatic variables can outperform the predictors derived from an individual variable. The stacked autoencoder model with combined predictors of sea surface temperature and sea level pressure can predict the monsoon (June-September) two months ahead with a 2.8% error. The accuracy of the identified predictors is found to be superior to the state-of-the-art predictions of the Indian monsoon.     

Personality,organization-specific attitude,and socioeconomic correlates of charity giving behavior

It should be noted that due to the composition of the sample, the specific findings of this study are not intended to be generalized to the population. The results of the discriminant analysis, nevertheless, provide some evidence that socioeconomic variables are more efficient than both organization-specific attitudes and personality variables in discriminating donors and nondonors. The analyses also show that personality variables used in this study do not contribute to a separation of nondonor/donor groups. Ford Motor Company The authors gratefully acknowledge the research support of University Research Committee, Ball State University in this study.     

INTRAHOUSEHOLD INEQUALITY AT DIFFERENT WELFARE LEVELS: ENERGY INTAKE AND ENERGY EXPENDITURE DATA FROM THE PHILIPPINES*

ABSTRACTS This paper investigates the relationship between intrahousehold inequality and levels of household welfare. Under certain conditions it is demonstrated — with both the unitary model of the household and with some collective models — that the relationship between household welfare and inequality within the household can have an inverted u-shape. Using two sets of calorie adequacy data from a sample of 455 households in the Philippines, a spline analysis is used to test the hypothesis that inequality within the household first increases and then decreases as per capita household total expenditure increases. The two sets of calorie adequacy data are based on repeated 24- hour recalls of dietary intake, and on calorie requirements that are unadjusted and then adjusted for individual activity patterns. Results indicate that once activity patterns are accounted for, calorie intake shortfalls are borne fairly equally within the household at all per capita household total expenditure levels.     

The Fallacy of Free Trade II

This paper argues that not a single proposition of the modern theory of free trade is upheld by the recent experience of the United States. Freer trade is supposed to raise GNP growth and productivity growth as well as the living standard. Until 1972, when the US was practically a closed economy with a trade/GNP ratio averaging a low of 12%, GNP growth was 3.8%, productivity growth was 2%, and real wages had been rising for 150 years. Since 1972, the trade/GNP ratio has been rising steadily, US GNP growth has been only 2.5%, productivity growth is below 1%, and real wages have been falling for over three-quarters of the labor force.     

Testing the limits of privatization: Argentine railroads

Just how far can privatization be pushed, and with what consequences? Based on a study of Argentine railroads, this paper concludes that even large, unprofitable firms in developing countries faced with market failures can be privatized, but the gains from doing so depend on how badly the state enterprise was performing to begin with, and the potential for introducing competition in the market and for the market. The broader lesson is that when both market failures and government failures are present, a public-private solution is preferable to a purely private or a purely public solution. Privatization is not a panacea but potentially a palliative, when it comes to reducing subsidies or coping with regulatory failures.     

Coping with International Accounting Diversity: Fund Managers' Views on Disclosure,Reconciliation, and Harmonization*

In this paper we examine the practices of representative samples of U.S.- and U.K.-based international investment managers in order to determine whether and how they are affected by accounting diversity and, therefore, by the presence or absence of quantitative reconciliation, and what their views are towards greater disclosure, reconciliation, or harmonization. We find that all three forms of reduced diversity-more uniform disclosure, quantitative reconciliation to U.S. GAAP, and international harmonization are viewed as good things by managers. None, however, appears to be critical in the investment process. Reconciliation is a costly requirement and we conclude that the SEC's insistence on reconciliation is not well-founded and that other means, especially greater emphasis on mutual recognition subject to certain minimum standards of disclosure and presentation, would be more effective.     

The Incidence of Public Spending on Healthcare: Comparative Evidence from Asia

The article compares the incidence of public healthcare across11 Asian countries and provinces, testing the dominance of healthcareconcentration curves against an equal distribution and Lorenzcurves and across countries. The analysis reveals that the distributionof public healthcare is prorich in most developing countries.That distribution is avoidable, but a propoor incidence is easierto realize at higher national incomes. The experiences of Malaysia,Sri Lanka, and Thailand suggest that increasing the incidenceof propoor healthcare requires limiting the use of user fees,or protecting the poor effectively from them, and building awide network of health facilities. Economic growth may not onlyrelax the government budget constraint on propoor policies butalso increase propoor incidence indirectly by raising richerindividuals' demand for private sector alternatives.     

An Investigation of Justice in supply chain relationships and their performance impact

Justice is important in improving performance of supply chain relationships. However, the role of justice in improving performance in supply chain relationships is an under-investigated subject in the literature. In studying the joint impact of justice dimensions, the traditional assumption is that the three forms of justice interact with each other in a multiplicative manner. However, this assumption creates a managerial problem as discussed in this paper. We outline a different view of how the justice dimensions interact with one another utilizing the constraining factor model (CFM). We show that the CFM resolves some of the problems arising from the choice of multiplicative interaction of justice measures on performance. Specifically, we demonstrate that an increase in procedural, distributive or interactional justice results in a significant and positive improvement in performance only if the specific justice dimension is the constraining factor in the relationship. Overall, our analysis suggests that all three dimensions are important and a high level of one of the justice elements will not compensate for a low level of another, a view that is put forward by a number of past research studies in justice. We discuss the theoretical and managerial implications of our findings.     

Term Structure of Interest Rates with Regime Shifts

We develop a term structure model where the short interest rate and the market price of risks are subject to discrete regime shifts. Empirical evidence from efficient method of moments estimation provides considerable support for the regime shifts model. Standard models, which include affine specifications with up to three factors, are sharply rejected in the data. Our diagnostics show that only the regime shifts model can account for the well–documented violations of the expectations hypothesis, the observed conditional volatility, and the conditional correlation across yields. We find that regimes are intimately related to business cycles.