A test of the efficiency of futures markets in commodities

Zusammenfassung Ein Test der Effizienz von Warenterminm?rkten. — In Reaktion auf die UNCTAD-Pl?ne zur Stabilisierung von Rohstoffpreisen durch beh?rdliche Ausgleichslager hat sich die Diskussion um Warenterminm?rkte als alternative, marktkonforme Stabilisierungsinstrumente erneut entfacht. Eine wesentliche Voraussetzung für den stabilisierenden EinfluΒ der Termingesch?fte auf die Kassapreise von Rohstoffen ist, daΒ die Terminm?rkte ?effizient? sind, d. h., die Terminmarktpreise s?mtliche jeweilig verfügbare Information widerspiegeln. In diesem Aufsatz wird die Effizienz der Terminm?rkte für fünf wichtige Rohstoffe (Kupfer, Zinn, Zucker, Kakao und Kaffee) des UNCTAD-Programms getestet. Dazu werden ARIMAZeitreihenmodelle der Kassapreise gesch?tzt und die Entwicklungen ex post vorhergesagt. Die so gewonnenen Ex-post-Prognosen sind effiziente Vorhersagen, da die Modelle alle systematischen Komponenten einer Zeitreihe erfassen, so daΒ der unerkl?rte Rest zufallsverteilt ist. Ein Vergleich zwischen dem mittleren quadrierten Vorhersageirrtum der Prognosemodelle und dem der Warenterminm?rkte zeigt, daΒ die Terminm?rkte in allen F?llen künftige Entwicklungen ebensogut oder besser anzeigen als die Modelle. Folglich kann die Hypothese, daΒ die untersuchten M?rkte im oben beschriebenen Sinn effizient sind, nicht verworfen werden.

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Résumé Un test de l’efficacité des marchés á terme des matières premières. — cet article nous faisons un test ?demi-fort? sur l’efficacité de marché pour cinq matières — le cuivre, l’étain, le sucre, le cacao et le café — pour lesquelles la CNUCED a proposé de stabiliser les prix par des schemes des stocks régulateurs. Les résultats indiquent que, pour la période observée, on ne peut pas refuser 1’ hypothèse que les marchés á terme de ces matières premières sont efficaces dans le sens que le marché emploie toutes les informations publiquement disponibles en formant les expectatives sur les prix au comptant futurs. Nous concluons que la stabilisation des prix au comptant de quelques matières premières pourrait être regardée comme alternative favorable vis-á-vis les schemes des stocks régulateurs de la CNUCED.

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Resumen El test de la eficiencia de mercados a futuro de productos primarios. — En este articulo se realiza un test de eficiencia de mercado de forma ?semi-fuerte? para cinco productos, espedficamente, cobre estafio, azücar, cacao, y café, cuyos precios UNCTAD ha propuesto estabilizar a través de esquemas de stocks amortiguadores. Los resultados indican que para el periodo estudiado, la hip?tesis de que los mercados a futuro para estos productos son eflcientes en el sentido de que el mercado emplea toda la informacion que se puede obtener püblicamente, informando sobre expectativas de los precios puntuales futuros, no puede ser rechazada. Se concluye entonces, que la estabilización de los precios puntuales para algunos productos primarios a través de mercados a futuro puede ser considerada como una alternativa favorable frente a los esquemas de Stocks amortiguadores de UNCTAD.

     

International industrial buyer behavior: An exploration and a proposed model

A large proportion of world’s trade revolves around a long list of industrial products which are pruchased by industrial buyers. Although it has been suggested that the impact of culture on international markets is more predominant in the consumer goods than industrial goods (Keegan 1984), little has been done in terms of understanding other variables besides culture that effect the international industrial buyer and his/her behavior.     

What happens to social spending in IMF-supported programmes?

This article finds that education and health spending has risen during International Monetary Fund (IMF)-supported programmes at a faster pace than in developing countries as a whole. The analysis is based on the most comprehensive dataset assembled thus far for this purpose, with data covering 1985 to 2009 for 140 countries. Controlling for other determinants of education and health spending, including macroeconomic conditions, the results confirm that IMF-supported programmes have a positive and significant effect on social spending in low-income countries. Over a 5-year period with IMF-supported programmes, spending for education increases by about ¾ percentage point of Gross Domestic Product (GDP); and for health, by about 1 percentage point of GDP. IMF-supported programmes are also associated with increases in the share of government spending allocated to education and health.     

The effects of extrinsic product cues on consumers’ perceptions of quality, sacrifice, and value

The authors report the results of two experiments designed to test the effects of extrinsic cues—price, brand name, store name, and country of origin—on consumers’ perceptions of quality, sacrifice, and value. The results of the experiments support hypothesized linkages between (a) each of the four experimentally manipulated extrinsic cues and perceived quality, (b) price and perceived sacrifice, (c) perceived quality and perceived value, and (d) perceived sacrifice and perceived value. The results also indicate that the linkages between the extrinsic cues and perceived value are mediated by perceived quality and sacrifice. R. Kenneth Teas is a distinguished professor of business in the Department of Marketing, College of Business, Iowa State University. He received his Ph.D. from the University of Oklahoma. His areas of research include consumer behavior and decision processes, marketing research methods, services marketing, and sales force management. His articles have been published in numerous journals, including theJournal of Marketing, theJournal of Marketing Research, theJournal of Consumer Research, theJournal of the Academy of Marketing Science, theAmerican Journal of Agricultural Economics, theJournal of Retailing, theJournal of Personal Selling and Sales Management, theJournal of Occupational Psychology, andIndustrial Marketing Management. Sanjeev Agarwal is an associate professor in the Department of Marketing, College of Business, Iowa State University. He received his Ph.D. from The Ohio State University. His areas of research include multinational marketing strategies, modes of foreign market entry, and sales force management. His articles have been published in theJournal of Consumer Research, theJournal of International Marketing, International Marketing Review, Industrial Marketing Management, theJournal of International Business Studies, theJournal of the Academy of Marketing Science, and theJournal of Personal Selling and Sales Management.     

Political and Fiscal Risk Determinants of Sovereign Spreads in Emerging Markets

Using a panel of 46 emerging market economies from 1997 to 2008, this paper investigates the key determinants of country risk premiums as measured by sovereign bond spreads. Unlike previous studies, the results indicate that both political and fiscal factors matter for credit risk in emerging markets. Lower levels of political risk are associated with tighter spreads, particularly during financial turmoil. Efforts at fiscal consolidation narrow credit spreads, especially in countries with high initial public debt levels. The composition of fiscal policy also matters as higher public investment lowers spreads as long as the fiscal position remains sustainable and the fiscal deficit does not worsen.     

Analysing and evaluating the taxpayer's demand for merit goods: the case of public sector education and health in Mauritius

This paper analyses the average taxpayer's demand for merit goods, namely, education and health, in Mauritius, a small developing island state. To study these development-related goods, a fresh methodology is employed that captures the characteristics of the Mauritian economy. The empirical evidence relates to the post-independence period of more than three decades, 1973 to 1999 and beyond. The respective demand elasticities for each merit good are analysed and evaluated. The findings indicate that, contrary to the conventional theory of demand, beneficiaries tend to demand more of such goods when their prices are increased, and less when they are decreased. The rationale for this behaviour is that people, in general, and taxpayers, in particular, being quality conscious, increase their demand when they are asked to pay more, expecting in return an improvement in the quality of services. However, there is evidence that over these three decades users' preferences have shifted, particularly in the case of education, towards private provision, indicating less reliance on public sector provision, and that during the years of structural adjustments the demand for these services was severely suppressed.     

iPhone as a proxy indicator of adaptive narcissism: An empirical investigation

In a consumeristic society, brands have become a signal to the identity and personality of the users. Apple Incorporate has been one of the most successful marketers, of modern times, with its iconic range of “i” devices that have a cult‐like following. The growth of “individualistic” society has also been credited with, as an important reason, for the success of the brand. Societies and people high in terms of individualism also tend to be more narcissistic. This study is an attempt to ascertain whether the use of the Apple iPhone is an indication of Narcissism. The results indicate an overall higher narcissistic score among users and aspirers of iPhone. However, iPhone users exhibit higher scores only in adaptive narcissism—indicative of leadership and authority and not in maladaptive narcissism—indicative of Entitlement Exploitativeness and Grandiose Exhibitionism; in comparison to nonusers. The results of the study have various managerial implications that may range from personality assessment to designing marketing messages and improving employee leadership and authority.     

Social media,an emerging platform for relationship building: A study of engagement with nongovernment organizations in India

The purpose of this study is to explore the major determinants of nongovernment organizations (NGOs) engagement and relationship building on social media in India. Netnography with a metaphoric grounded analysis is used for the data analysis to identify these determinants, and a conceptual framework is proposed to inform the strategic direction of NGOs. The findings suggest that supporters engage with NGOs largely for personal and organizational reasons. Emotions, trust, and information needs emerge as the primary personal drivers for engagement, whereas organizational accountability, performance, brand image, and transparency emerge as organizational drivers. Behavioural intention mediates the relationship between the drivers of engagement and supporter contributions. The study suggests that as the number of supporters on social media platforms is rapidly increasing, NGOs should recognize the importance of the supporter experience while designing their marketing strategies. Given the peculiarity of supporter behaviour in relationship building by NGOs, the inclusion of more supporters may improve the welfare of society.     

IMF conditionality supports revenue collection: is it just tax rates?

This article examines if the observed favourable impact of conditionality in IMF programmes on revenue performance arises from changes in tax rates. It does so by studying the experience of 126 low- and middle-income countries during 1993–2013. When changes in tax rates are controlled for, the impact of revenue conditionality (and especially conditionality on revenue administration reform) not only remains strong on value-added tax collection but also, in contrast to earlier results, it contributes to significant improvements in income tax collection.