HOW CAN PUBLIC SPENDING HELP YOU GROW? AN EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS FOR DEVELOPING COUNTRIES

Although many studies indicate that both the level and composition of public spending are significant for economic growth, the results in the empirical literature are mixed. This paper suggests that the country sample selection and expenditure classification are important in explaining these conflicting results. The empirical analysis shows that the link between growth and public spending, especially its core component, is strong only for countries with macroeconomic stability and fast GDP per capita growth dynamics, which are also capable of using public funds for productive purposes.     

Multi-sectoral interdependencies of regional public infrastructure investments

Public investment decision-making processes involve multiple and interrelated sectoral and regional policy objectives and budget constraints. This paper presents a dynamic spatio-economic model that considers multi-sectoral investment interdependencies using data at the prefecture level in Greece. The expenditure allocation dynamics of most types of regional public investment are found to be competitive with each other. This outcome is attributed to the lack of policy coordination, technological and budget constraints, geographical factors, and equity and political considerations. The investment interrelationships may have a significant effect on future state funding needs and the strategic assessment of infrastructure development at the country level.     

Price Endogeneity and Food Demand in Urban China

Price endogeneity has been ignored in previous analyses of food demand in urban China. We exploit data provided by the China National Bureau of Statistics on agricultural commodity supply shifters and use reduced‐form price equations to account for price endogeneity. Applying our unique econometric approach to the analysis of provincial‐level food demand in China, we find strong statistical evidence of price endogeneity. Models that ignore price endogeneity result in substantially biased elasticities and misleading estimates of future food demand in China.     

河南省农民消费支出地区差异的实证分析

据2011年河南省统计年鉴调查数据表明,河南省各地区农民支出差异较大,且呈现出进一步扩大的趋势。文章从河南省农民消费支出地区差异的现状着手,对河南省农民消费支出地区差异进行实证分析,找出影响河南省各地区农民消费支出的主要影响因素,并提出解决河南省农民消费支出差异较大问题方案的模型,为合理调整河南省农民消费结构,尽快消除消费支出地区差异较大并继续扩大的现象,实现各地区经济均衡发展提供一定的科学依据。     

经营绩效反馈、环境不确定性与企业广告投入

基于2012～2015年深沪两市A股上市公司样本数据，对经营绩效反馈和企业广告投入之间的关系进行了理论分析和实证检验，并进一步考察了环境不确定性的调节作用。研究结果表明：（1）当企业未实现资本市场经营预期时，随着实际绩效低于经营预期程度的增大，企业广告投入将减少；（2）当企业实现资本市场经营预期时，随着实际绩效高于经营预期程度的增大，企业广告投入将增加；（3）当企业未实现资本市场经营预期时，与低不确定性环境相比，高不确定性环境中企业经营绩效负反馈对广告投入的负向影响将增强；（4）当企业实现资本市场经营预期时，与低不确定性环境相比，高不确定性环境中企经营绩效正反馈对企业广告投入的正向影响将增强。     

Does Medical Equipment Expansion Lead to More Diagnostic Services? Evidence from China’s Sichuan Province

A major goal of China’s healthcare reform is to control the increasing healthcare spending, much of which can be attributed to the overuse of diagnostic tests and has been relatively less studied in the literature. This article analyzes the correlation between medical equipment expansion and the increase in diagnostic test expenditure in China, using Sichuan Province as an example. County-level data aggregated from hospitals’ annual reports in Sichuan Province from 2008 to 2012 were used. The results show a positive correlation between the expansion of medical equipment and the increase in diagnostic test expenditure. Our study provides implications on reforming China’s healthcare delivery system and medical equipment regulation policies.     

建设绩效考评体系 提高税式支出效益

面对纷繁复杂的税式支出,如何避免税式支出的滥用,堵塞税收流失的漏洞,进行科学有效地管理和监督,以充分发挥税式支出的引导和激励作用,切实提高税式支出效益,已成为政府和社会各界共同关注的问题。在对税式支出绩效考评体系的基本理念、实施流程和建设效益进行综合分析的基础上,论证了建设科学、合理、有效的税式支出绩效考评体系是提高税式支出效益的必要举措这一科学论断。     

GOVERNMENT SIZE AND GROWTH: A SURVEY AND INTERPRETATION OF THE EVIDENCE

Abstract The literature on the relationship between the size of government and economic growth is full of seemingly contradictory findings. This conflict is largely explained by variations in definitions and the countries studied. An alternative approach – of limiting the focus to studies of the relationship in rich countries, measuring government size as total taxes or total expenditure relative to GDP and relying on panel data estimations with variation over time – reveals a more consistent picture. The most recent studies find a significant negative correlation: an increase in government size by 10 percentage points is associated with a 0.5% to 1% lower annual growth rate. We discuss efforts to make sense of this correlation, and note several pitfalls involved in giving it a causal interpretation. Against this background, we discuss two explanations of why several countries with high taxes seem able to enjoy above average growth. One hypothesis is that countries with higher social trust levels are able to develop larger government sectors without harming the economy. Another explanation is that countries with large governments compensate for high taxes and spending by implementing market‐friendly policies in other areas. Both explanations are supported by ongoing research.     

GOVERNMENT SIZE AND GROWTH: A REJOINDER

In our 2011 survey of the literature in the Journal of Economic Surveys on the effect of government size on economic growth in wealthy countries we find a relatively consistent pattern: An increase in government size by 10 percentage points is associated with a 0.5–1 percentage point lower annual growth rate. This conclusion is questioned by Colombier. In this rejoinder we present a rebuttal of Colombier's argument based on a detailed scrutiny of his own statistical evidence and regression results. Furthermore, we note that several new papers that have appeared since our original paper was published give support to our main conclusion.