中国大米市场回归均衡速度研究

本文利用持续性时间序列（Persistence profile）方法分粳米和籼米估计了大米市场受到冲击后向均衡收敛的速度，进而分析了中国大米市场的有效性，研究结果表明：对于粳米而言，主产地市场比主销地市场更有效；从总体上看，籼米市场比粳米市场更有效。为缩短市场受到冲击后回到均衡需要的时问，提高中国大米市场的有效性，粳米主销地要储备合理数量的粳米应对市场的突然冲击，要采取多种措施与主产区建立稳定的大米购销关系；国家要加强粮食市场信息化和交通运输建设，提高大米流通效率，加快市场调节速度。     

Convergence to symmetry in dynamic strategic models of R&D: The undiscounted case

Will R&D increase or decrease the asymmetry between firms over time? We examine this issue in the context of a dynamic, alternate-move duopoly model of non-cooperative R&D. The asymmetry we consider is with respect to the initial stocks of technological knowledge which provides one firm a greater potential for current and future profits in the product market. Utilizing a value loss process constructed from the Optimality Equation of dynamic programming, we show that for the undiscounted case the asymmetry between the firms disappears over time. We obtain this convergence-to-symmetry result by imparting a temporal character to R&D through the notion that R&D investment cannot be changed instantaneously, by allowing research externalities, complementarity or substitutability between own and appropriated R&D, and either increasing, decreasing or constant returns to scale in the production of technical knowledge from own and rival R&D.     

战略性新兴产业军民融合式发展的产业融合分析——以核能产业为例

基于产业融合分析框架,战略性新兴产业军民融合式发展可视为包括技术融合、需求融合、企业融合和制度融合在内的产业融合的特殊表现形式。其中,技术融合是起点,企业融合是实现途径,需求融合是重要拉动力,制度融合是外部推动力。以战略性新兴产业军民融合式发展的典型产业——核能产业为研究对象,从技术融合、企业融合、需求融合和制度融合等方面,分析核能产业军民融合式发展现状与问题,提出了夯实技术基础、打造军民融合产业园、建立需求拉动机制以及完善军民融合制度建设等一些列促进战略性新兴产业军民融合深度发展的建议。     

创新环境约束下高技术产业区域创新效率及收敛性研究

以各地区高技术产业为样本,应用超越对数随机前沿模型实证测算了创新环境约束下各地高技术产业基础研发和成果转化创新效率,并基于σ收敛、β收敛以及俱乐部收敛3种判别方法,考察了高技术产业基础研发效率和成果转化效率的收敛性特征。研究发现,2000-2014年我国创新环境对区域高技术产业的影响不可小觑,在其约束下高技术产业基础研发效率不断提升,呈现出东西较高、中北较低的分布态势且出现收敛特征;在应用效率方面,各地区成果转化效率大致划分为2000-2007年的缓慢增长期与2008-2014年的缓慢衰退期两个阶段,具有东高西低、南高北低的分布态势且趋于发散。     

知识联盟中知识存量振荡系统收敛性研究

运用知识存量理论、知识联盟理论的分析方法,提出知识联盟中知识存量振荡系统收敛性问题。通过模型假设,构建知识存量振荡系统收敛性模型。认为在知识存量和知识流量共同作用下,知识存量振荡系统经历释能、解码、匹配和调适4个阶段,沿着非线性路径呈收敛性状态。     

Conjoint and WTP analyses of future mobile phones for digital convergence

Digital convergence for mobile phones is a hot issue. This study considers future development of mobile phones with a view toward consumers' usage and the amount they are willing to pay. In order to select preferable convergence technology, we utilize convergence concepts such as absorption, blending, and combination. The result of conjoint analysis shows that a preference for convergence technology will involve computing, media, navigation, and imaging. However, only the computing attribute increases consumers' willingness to pay. Our study results contribute to product planning and commercialization of innovative mobile phones.     

Convergence and determinants of ICT development in case of emerging market economies

This paper aims to examine the convergence of ICT development in the case of 27 emerging market economies (EMEs) using annual data from 2000 to 2018. First, by employing Phillips-Sul (PS) panel convergence test, the results not only support the evidence of convergence in ICT development but also find convergence in the composition of ICT development known as ICT access and ICT use. Second, the study identifies factors such as per capita income, human capital, and FDI which significantly affect ICT development. Third, results based on stochastic conditional convergence reveal that EMEs countries are not only converging among themselves but also ‘catch-up’ to the OECD countries.     

专利视角下人工智能与车联网技术融合演化研究

通过对人工智能与车联网技术融合特征进行研究，能够精准识别车联网产业技术机会，为人工智能与车联网产业创新融合发展提供方向指引。选取2000—2019年相关专利数据，对人工智能与车联网领域技术融合进行识别与测度，采用Word2vec文本挖掘算法和社会网络分析法，揭示融合领域技术发展态势、技术主题关联模式、技术共现网络整体结构和节点功能演变情况。研究发现，融合过程呈现明显的阶段性特征，图像识别等相关算法是车联网领域最基础的人工智能算法，卷积神经网络等相关算法是最具潜力和发展前景的人工智能算法；智能交通平台是融合领域的重点发展方向；数据识别与数据表示技术在融合演变过程中的控制能力较强，无线通信网络技术发展受到相关人工智能技术发展水平的制约。基于研究结论，从研发方向、学科建设、平台搭建等方面提出启示和建议。     

Measuring performance: Ranking state success over two decades in India

This paper proposes new composite measures of relative and dynamic state performance to improve governance and delivery of public programs in developing countries with a federal structure. We illustrate the use of the indices to rank the performance of 19 major Indian states on two large development programs launched by the Indian government over the last two decades using publicly available data. Although we find volatility in performance over time, there exists a positive correlation between measures of initial (administrative) state capacity, development and accountability with program outcomes. Our findings have important implications for both the design and implementation of large-scale public programs across developing countries.     

南北经济收敛性与共同富裕

区域经济收敛有利于协调区域发展,从而有助于实现我国共同富裕的奋斗目标。然而我国幅员辽阔,区域经济差距由来已久。当下,从GDP总量的角度来看,我国区域经济格局呈南北经济差距扩大的态势。文章利用我国284个地级市文章中的284个地级市还包括4个直辖市。2000—2019年面板数据,探析了南北经济差距演变情况。首先,基于σ收敛和dagum基尼系数分析了人均实际GDP演变特征;其次,构建β收敛模型分析了南北经济收敛性,并考察了人力资本、物质资本、技术水平、对外开放和财政支出对南北经济收敛的影响;最后,文章从共同富裕的视角,对我国西南、西北和东北地区与其他地区的经济收敛性进行探讨。研究发现:(1)南北区域经济存在显著的俱乐部效应,南方内部经济由收敛演变为不具有显著收敛特征,而北方内部经济差距均呈收敛趋势;(2)适度的人力资本的流动不会导致经济发散,物质资本总体上延缓区域经济收敛速度,财政支出对区域经济收敛的作用有限,而技术水平和对外开放对经济收敛速度的影响不稳定;(3)从实现共同富裕的总体目标来看,西北地区的经济表现与其他地区存在显著差异,东北和西南的小部分区域也需要引起一定的重视。对此文章提出合理化建议,以期更好实现共同富裕目标。