美国2011年财政研发预算重点与趋势分析

在金融危机的压力下,美国联邦政府近两年的研发预算增幅甚微,2011年仅增加0．23％,但投向基础研究的资金增幅创下近五年新高,“气候”成为继“生物医学”之后又一大战略重点。本文简要分析美国联邦财政2011年研发预算的分布及其重点,及近年来美财政对研发战略投资的趋势。     

企业研发管理的现状及分析

研发是一个企业不断创新以获取和维持核心竞争力的重要途径,也是企业生存和发展的需要。目前,我国企业在研发管理方面的表现并不十分乐观,存在的诸多问题已经成为企业研发管理的瓶颈。研发是一条充满艰辛和风险的道路。研发活动不但需要投入大量的资源、打造强大的职业化的研发队伍,更关键的是要建立一个高效的研发管理体系。在总体规划上,需要以一流企业为标杆,制定研发管理水平不断提高的长期计划。主要包括局部优化、部门级研发组织及流程变革、企业级平台变革、跨企业创新变革等方面。     

我国R&D产业化对经济增长浅析

"科学技术是第一生产力",随着经济全球化和信息技术的发展,研发活动在经济发展中的作用日益突出,也成为我国经济增长寻找新动力的所在。本文采用我国各省市R&D产业化指标体系,将我国东、中、西部地区R&D产业化对经济增长的影响进行了比较分析,并建立了关于经济增长的多元线性回归模型,结果表明R&D产业化总体发展对各地区经济增长有显著的正向影响,但对各地区经济增长的效应存在差异。该模型能够较为准确的反映实际,具有一定的实际意义。     

An investigation of issues relating to where energy should enter the production function

This paper examines the impact of imposing different separability assumptions in the specifications of the standard hierarchical KLEM production function in a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model. The appropriate means of introducing energy to production functions has been a source of debate for a number of years. However, while modellers often subject results to parametric sensitivy analysis regarding the values associated with elasticities of substitution between inputs, it is rarely the case that the structure of the production function is subjected to testing. However, the chosen structure reflects the modeller's view about elasticity between different inputs and will have implications for model results wherever there are changes in relative prices. We illustrate our argument by introducing a simple demand shock to a CGE model of the Scottish economy (targeted at the energy supply sector) under different assumptions regarding the structure of the KLEM production function and separability assumptions therein.     

A direct test of hyperbolic discounting using market asset data

This paper introduces a framework that generalizes exponential discounting in a net present value model by including a quasi-hyperbolic discount parameter in the asset valuation equation. Using observed market asset data, a statistically significant quasi-hyperbolic parameter is obtained, thus rejecting exponential discounting.     

Uncertain spatial demand and price flexibility: A state space approach to duopoly

Sufficient conditions for a unique price equilibrium, in terms of the uncertainty distribution and the state contingent consumer distributions, are given for spatial duopoly. Also considered are efficiency and endogenous locations for the symmetric case and comparative statics on price flexibility.     

An in-sample and out-of-sample empirical investigation of the nonlinearity in house prices of South Africa

This paper tests whether housing prices in the five segments of the South African housing market, namely large-middle, medium-middle, small-middle, luxury and affordable, exhibit non-linearity based on smooth transition autoregressive (STAR) models estimated using quarterly data from 1970:Q2 to 2009:Q3. Findings point to an overwhelming evidence of non-linearity in these five segments based on in-sample evaluation of the linear and non-linear models. We next provide further support for non-linearity by comparing one- to four-quarters-ahead out-of-sample forecasts of the non-linear time series model with those of the classical and Bayesian versions of the linear autoregressive (AR) models for each of these segments, for the out-of-sample horizon 2001:Q1 to 2009:Q3, using the in-sample period 1970:Q2 to 2000:Q4. Our results indicate that barring the one-, two and four-step(s)-ahead forecasts of the small segment, the non-linear model always outperforms the linear models. In addition, given the existence of strong causal relationship amongst the house prices of the five segments, the multivariate versions of the linear (classical and Bayesian) and STAR (MSTAR) models were also estimated. The MSTAR always outperformed the best performing univariate and multivariate linear models. Thus, our results highlight the importance of accounting for non-linearity, as well as the possible interrelationship amongst the variables under consideration, especially for forecasting.     

Investigating regional house price convergence in the United States: Evidence from a pair-wise approach

In this paper we examine long-run house price convergence across US states using a novel econometric approach advocated by Pesaran (2007) and Pesaran et al. (2009). Our empirical modelling strategy employs a probabilistic test statistic for convergence based on the percentage of unit root rejections among all state house price differentials. Using a sieve bootstrap procedure, we construct confidence intervals and find evidence in favour of convergence. We also conclude that speed of adjustment towards long-run equilibrium is inversely related to distance.     

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS ON THE URBAN–RURAL DISPARITY IN HUMAN CAPITAL IN CHINA

With China's economic development and capital accumulation in the industrial sectors, the human capital level of the labours moving from the rural areas could no longer meet the demand of the industrial sectors. Therefore, “structural shortage of technical labour” emerged in the labour market as a result of excess of demand for high‐skilled workers. Previous literature mostly focused on the relationship between rural human‐capital level and labour movement, income change and economic growth, but in this article, the authors focus on the study of the relative disparity of urban and rural human capital and labour movement, as well as the effect of the change of urban–rural human capital gap on industrial output, profit and social welfare. This article shows that bridging the urban–rural gap in respect of human capital level could not only improve the situation of the “structural shortage of technical labour,” but also have a positive effect on the general social welfare.