量化宽松、流动性溢出与新兴市场通货膨胀

全球金融危机愈演愈烈,各国政府使出浑身解数以刺激经济回暖,随着短期利率接近于零,常规货币政策几近失效之时,美、英等发达国家试图通过量化宽松货币政策的实施刺激国内私人部门消费和投资的增长。当国内实体经济无法容纳这部分过剩的流动性时,必然导致流动性溢出,大量国际资本涌入大宗商品市场和新兴市场,催生资产泡沫,给新兴市场国家造成通胀的压力。本文通过新近发展的面板VAR模型分析了量化宽松政策的流动性溢出效应及其对金砖国家物价的影响。     

对银行的流动性风险管理问题的思考

一直以来,流动性风险被称为银行最致命的风险,在银行的经营管理中流动性风险管理更是占有极其重要的地位。可目前银行的流动性风险管理的现状实在令人担忧,因此,如何有效地管理流动性风险就成为当前银行风险管理的核心内容。本文从流动性风险入手,着重阐述了当前银行的流动性风险管理现状,并提出一些应对策略,力图提高银行抵御流动性风险的能力,以供参考。     

浅析我国国际收支

20011年4月10日,海关总署发布的数据显示我国第一季度出现10.2亿的贸易逆差,这是自2004年以来,出现的首个季度逆差.但在在各方密切注视之下,中国6月份的贸易顺差猛增至222.7亿美元.虽然6月进口的增速回落明显快于出口,但不可否认的是近年来贸易顺差一直是我国国际收支的大问题.     

沪市房地产企业信息披露的流动性效应

运用沪市房地产企业2006年—2008年度数据为样本分析会计信息披露质量与公司业绩、股票流动性的关系,研究结果表明会计信息质量与公司业绩ROE显著负相关,其中会计信息的真实性与ROE正相关,与每股内涵价值负相关,完整性与ROE负相关。会计信息质量对股票流通的促进作用不显著,但会计信息的真实性显著与ILLIQ负相关,即显著促进股票的流动。     

基于双重流动性风险控制的资产组合优化研究

银行危机的实质在于银行资产配置失误而导致的流动性不足,因而在银行资产配置中使得资产保持充分的流动性,对银行的发展至关重要。本文以上一期的负债与资产余额同下一期负债累加作为下一期的总分配资金,使得资产与负债在时间上匹配,通过商业银行法和中央银行对商业银行的监管条例约束,保证银行资产配给的合法性与合规性,控制了银行经营中的流动性风险,保障银行的支付能力。     

Incomplete Credit Markets and Commodity Marketing Behaviour

We use a simple theoretical model of seasonal market participation in the presence of liquidity constraints and transaction costs to explain the ‘sell low, buy high’ puzzle in which some households do not take advantage of inter‐temporal price arbitrage through storage and sell output postharvest at prices lower than observed prices for purchases in the subsequent lean season. We test our model with data from western Kenya using maximum likelihood estimation of a multivariate sample selection model of market participation. Access to off‐farm income and credit indeed seem to influence crop sales and purchase behaviours in a manner consistent with the hypothesised patterns.     

Measuring the cost of liquidity in agricultural futures markets: Conventional and Bayesian approaches

Estimating the cost of liquidity in agricultural futures markets is challenging because bid‐ask spreads are usually not observed. Based on an ability to reflect simulated data from Roll's spread model, we assess the effectiveness of conventional and Bayesian bid‐ask spread estimators under different market conditions. Conventional serial covariance and absolute price change spread estimators appear to be biased. Hasbrouck's Bayesian estimator generates small costs of liquidity whose values depend on the correlation and noise in the data. The absolute value Bayesian estimator is precise and works well under conditions of high levels of noise and correlation usually found in agricultural futures markets. Using data from live cattle (LC) and lean hog (LH) contracts, we find similar patterns of performance that produce economically meaningful cost of liquidity differences.     

Keynes and a post-Keynesian controversy over the effect of debt on income expansion

The paper considers arguments of Robertson (1938) and Asimakopulos (1983) that the Keynesian multiplier expansion of output may be constrained by debt implicitly incurred in the financing of autonomous investment necessary to start the multiplier process. The task of this essay is to show that within the ‘short-period’ and static analytical framework of Keynes, this line of reasoning regarding the adverse effects of debt on multiplier-induced expansions of output is unwarranted. Nevertheless it is concluded that if the Keynesian framework is abandoned in favour of a dynamic framework in the manner of a steady trend rate of growth - a choice dependent on how one conceives of the economy, as inherently static or dynamic - then such arguments have troubling implications. In particular, the dependence of Keynes's approach on credit and hence debt forges links between ‘short-periods' whose distinctness from one another is crucial to Keynes's result.     

我国商业银行流动性过剩的原因及对策分析

本文将从商业银行的角度,对银行流动性过剩这一广受关注的新问题进行较为系统的分析。希望能丰富银行流动性风险管理概念,提高央行货币政策的执行效率,对有效防范银行危机能具有一定的指导意义。