Uncertainty, arbitrage and intra–industry trade

When firms in the same industry located in different regions or countries experience shocks to production costs in their respective industries that are imperfectly correlated, arbitrage opportunities automatically lead to trade. Trade can either stabilize or destabilize the price faced by producers in a given country. Producers' surplus is affected, owing to the 'variance–covariance' effect, while consumers' surplus is more directly affected through the variance of the product price. We examine how consumers' surplus, producers' surplus, and social welfare are affected when the regions switch from autarky to free trade in the presence of industry and region–specific cost shocks. JEL Classification: F10, D80
Incertitude, arbitrage et commerce intra–industrie. Quand les entreprises d'une même industrie localisées dans diverses régions ou différents pays font face à des chocs, qui ne sont pas parfaitement co–reliés, dans leurs coûts de production, les possibilités d'arbitrage entraînent automatiquement un accroissement du commerce. Ce commerce inter–régional ou international peut soit stabiliser ou déstabiliser les prix auxquels les producteurs font face dans un pays donné. Le surplus aux producteurs est directement affecté via l'effet de «variance–covariance>>, alors que le surplus aux consommateurs est plus directement affecté via la variance du prix du produit. Ce mémoire examine comment le surplus aux producteurs, le surplus aux consommateurs, et le niveau de bien–être social sont affectés quand les régions passent de l'autarcie au libre échange dans le cas où existent des chocs dans les coûts qui sont spécifiques à l'industrie et à la région.     

Energy use in eight rural communities in India

A study of eight rural communities in India indicates that levels of energy consumption vary widely among the communities and that consumption depends on socioeconomic and agroclimatic factors. Irrigation is the most significant factor influencing energy consumption and demand. Fuelwood is not used mainly by the low-income households but by the higher-income households. There is a progressive trend towards monetizationof fuelwood, animal wastes and agricultural residues. Energy planning for rural communities should be location and household-specific, and disaggregated information should be generated for this purpose using baseline surveys.     

An epidemiological study of injury in mines: implications for safety promotion

The role of various factors in coal mine-related injuries was investigated using a case-control design. The study setting was two neighbouring underground coal mines in India. Cases comprised mine workers (n = 150) who had sustained a prior mine-related injury from a population of 1000 underground workers. Controls were selected from those mineworkers with no history of a prior mine-related injury using frequency matching (n = 150) from the same source population. Data were collected from the cases and controls using a structured survey questionnaire. Based on the responses of the participants, each factor was grouped into three categories. High-low plots and Chi-square tests were conducted to explore the differences between the cases and controls. Bivariate logistic regression was run to estimate the crude odds of injuries, while multivariate logistic regression estimated the adjusted odds of injuries to the workers for the various variable categories. High-low plots and the Chi-square test clearly revealed that the cases and controls significantly differed in their responses for the variables studied. Accident-involved workers take more risks, are negatively affected, job dissatisfied, feel more production pressure, job stress, work hazards and are less job involved and are more dissatisfied with safety environment and social climate of the mines compared to the controls. The multivariate odds of injuries to high risk taking, negatively affected and job dissatisfied workers are 1.21, 9.34 and 2.00 times more compared to their lowest counterparts. Similarly, workers satisfied with the overall safety practice and safety equipment availability and maintenance are 1.5 and 3.12 times less likely to be injured than the workers with little or no satisfaction with the above factors. It is therefore concluded that negative affectivity and job dissatisfaction are the two major personal level factors that contribute more towards accident/injury in the mines studied. Identification and elimination/reduction of negative attitudes are of utmost importance.     

Determinants of a Digital Divide in Sub-Saharan Africa: A Spatial Econometric Analysis of Cell Phone Coverage

This paper investigates the determinants of disparities in coverage by cell telephone systems in Sub-Saharan Africa. It uses a spatially disaggregated probit for over 990,000 grid cells with adjustments for spatial autocorrelation. Determinants include potential market size (population); cost factors related to accessibility (elevation, slope, distance from a main road, and distance from the nearest large city); and competition policy. Estimates indicate significant results for the supply–demand variables, and very strong results for the competition policy index.Simulations suggest that a generalized improvement in competition policy could lead to huge improvements in cell phone area coverage, and to an overall coverage increase of nearly 100%.