当前经济热点问题思考

随着中国经济进入"十二五",经济改革将进入"激流区"。国际经济阴晴不定,国内经济面临转变经济发展模式,"中等收入陷阱"等诸多难题。就淡化GDP考核、CPI治理、缩小贫富差距、提高经济发展质量提出自己的意见和建议。     

国债发行规模与GDP和财政支出的关系

国债作为政府筹集资金、缓解财政压力和实施宏观经济调控与现代金融管理的重要工具,适当的国债政策是实现财政政策和货币政策调控目标、促进经济增长的重要手段与保证。我国国债的发行对支持经济的发展起到了重要的促进作用。要优化国债结构,实现国债结构进一步的合理化,就需逐步扩大地方政府债券发行规模,规范国债市场运行,调整国债投资规模与方向,促进我国经济长期稳定发展。     

中国宏观经济总量的实时预报与短期预测——基于混频数据预测模型的实证研究

季度GDP的走势与波动不仅会影响政府的财政收支、企业的盈利和财务状况,甚至还会影响家庭和个人的收入与支出,是宏观经济总量预报、预测与分析的重中之重。传统的宏观经济总量预测模型是基于同频数据进行的,高频和超高频数据必需处理为低频数据,这不仅忽略了高频数据信息的变化,还影响了模型预报和预测的及时性,降低了模型的预测精度。本文将混合数据抽样模型(MIDAS)用于中国季度GDP的预报和预测,实证研究表明,出口是造成我国金融危机时期经济增长减速的主要因素,MIDAS模型在中国宏观经济总量的短期预测方面具有精确性的比较优势,在实时预报方面具有显著的可行性和时效性。     

Environment versus growth — A criticism of “degrowth” and a plea for “a-growth”

In recent debates on environmental problems and policies, the strategy of “degrowth” has appeared as an alternative to the paradigm of economic growth. This new notion is critically evaluated by considering five common interpretations of it. One conclusion is that these multiple interpretations make it an ambiguous and rather confusing concept. Another is that degrowth may not be an effective, let alone an efficient strategy to reduce environmental pressure. It is subsequently argued that “a-growth,” i.e. being indifferent about growth, is a more logical social aim to substitute for the current goal of economic growth, given that GDP (per capita) is a very imperfect indicator of social welfare. In addition, focusing ex ante on public policy is considered to be a strategy which ultimately is more likely to obtain the necessary democratic-political support than an ex ante, explicit degrowth strategy. In line with this, a policy package is proposed which consists of six elements, some of which relate to concerns raised by degrowth supporters.     

On the forecasting of the challenging world future scenarios

Logistic and power law methodologies for both retrospective and prospective analyses of extended time series describing evolutionary growth processes, in environments with finite resources, are confronted. While power laws may eventually apply only to the early stages of said growth process, the Allee logistic model seems applicable over the entire span of a long range process. On applying the Allee logistic model to both the world population and the world gross domestic product time series, from 1 to 2008 AD, a projection was obtained that along the next few decades the world should experience a new economic boom phase with the world GDP peaking around the year 2020 and proceeding from then on towards a saturation value of about 142 trillion international dollars, while the world population should reach 8.9 billion people by 2050. These results were then used to forecast the behavior of the supply and consumption of energy and food, two of the main commodities that drive the world system. Our findings suggest that unless the currently prevailing focus on economic growth is changed into that of sustainable prosperity, human society may run into a period of serious economical and social struggles with unpredictable political consequences.     

江苏省区域经济差异测度分析——基于基尼系数分解

系统地计算了1978--2009年江苏省县域人均GDP的基尼系数,并将其分解为三个部分：区域内经济差异、区域间经济净差异和区域间经济逆差异。结果表明：江苏省区域经济差异总体上呈波动性的扩大趋势。在小尺度县域单元上,江苏省区域经济差异主要受一般县市经济差异的影响,市辖区的差异变化不大。在大尺度区域单元上,苏南、苏中、苏北三大区域间的经济净差异决定着江苏省区域经济差异,随着区域间经济逆差异越来越小,苏北、苏中人均GDP高的县市逐步被苏南入均GDP的低的县市赶上和超过。要积极壮大苏中和苏北县域经济,实施有利于缩小经济差异的区域政策和措施。     

中国宏观经济论坛预测：全年GDP增长9.63% CPI达到4.7%

2011年中国宏观经济将努力凸现出以增长保民生、以民生促增长的协同发展路径,协同增长目标和民生目标是2011年中国宏观经济政策的主旋律。     

湖北高新技术产品出口与GDP的关联性分析

高新技术产品汇聚了当代科技发展的前沿成果,代表一个国家或地区的核心竞争力水平.本文通过分析湖北省高新技术产品出口交货值与GDP的协整关系,论述了地区高新技术产品出口交货值对国民经济发展的促进作用.     

我国出口贸易的增长性分析

通过结合国内生产总值与外商直接投资、外商直接投资与出口贸易之间的关系发现：国内生产总值对于外商直接投资具有双重吸引作用,外商直接投资能够推动出口贸易的增长,我国的国内生产总值能够促进出口贸易的快速增长。通过实证检验得到,我国实际生产总值与出口贸易存在正向稳定的经济关系。     

贸易视角下经济增长和环境质量的内在机理研究——基于中国30个省市环境库兹涅茨曲线的面板数据分析

经济增长与环境质量问题已引起众多学者的关注。本文利用中国30个省、市、自治区15年的面板数据检验中国是否存在倒U型的EKC曲线,并且在考虑贸易与投资的基础上,得出如下结论:东部地区存在倒U型的EKC,西部地区存在正U型的EKC,中部地区不存在EKC;外贸依存度与碳排放呈现出显著地正相关关系,FDI对碳排放虽有影响但很微弱;贸易和投资对拐点到达的时间并无影响,但却能够提高拐点到达时的人均GDP水平。