Causal relations between nominal exchange rates and monetary fundamentals in Central and Eastern European countries

The purpose of this paper is to investigate the causal relations between nominal exchange rates and monetary fundamentals. The analysis is conducted using panel quarterly data from the period 2001–12 for Central and Eastern European countries (including Turkey) with relatively flexible exchange rate regimes. The paper reconnects the empirical literature on exchange rates in Central and Eastern European countries with the most recent findings on exchange rate determination in advanced economies. Kóyna's approach, which accounts for linkages between countries, is used in the study. The main findings indicate the existence of causal relations running from both nominal exchange rates to monetary fundamentals and in the opposite direction as well as the existence of a relatively strong link between exchange rates and differentials in the relative price of non‐tradables.     

Non-classical Algorithm for Time Series Prediction of the Range of Economic Phenomena With Regard to the Interaction of Financial Market Indicators

The aim of the article is to present non-clasical copyrighted algorithm for prediction of time series, presenting macroeconomic indicators and stock market indices. The algorithm is based on artificial neural networks and multi-resolution analysis （the algorithm is based on Daubechies wavelet）. However, the main feature of the algorithm, which gives a good quality of the forecasts, is all included in the series analysis division into, a few partial under-series and prediction dependence on a number of other economic series. The algorithm used for the prediction, is copyrighted algorithm, labeled M.H-D in this article. Application of the algorithm was performed on a series presenting WIG 20. The forecast of WIG 20 was conditional on trading the Dow Jones, DAX, Nikkei, Hang Seng, taking into account the sliding time window. As an example application of copyrighted model, the forecast of WIG 20 for a period of two years, one year, six month was appointed. An empirical example is described. It shows that the proposed model can predict index with the scale of two years, one year, a half year and other intervals. Precision of prediction is satisfactory. An average absolute percentage error of each forecast was： 0.0099%---for two-year forecasts WIG 20; 0.0552%--for the annual forecast WIG 20; and 0.1788%---for the six-month forecasts WIG 20.     

Persistence of firm‐level profitability in the European dairy processing industry

Based on autoregressive (AR) models and Arellano‐Bond dynamic panel estimation, this article analyses profit persistence in the European dairy processing industry. The sample comprises 590 dairy processors from the following five countries: Belgium, France, Italy, Spain, and the United Kingdom. The AR models indicate that cooperatives which account for around 20% of all firms in the dairy processing sector are not primarily profit oriented. In addition, the results point toward a high level of competition as profit persistence is rather low even if cooperatives are excluded. The panel model reveals that short‐ as well as long‐run profit persistence is influenced by firm and industry characteristics.     

Where process development begins: A multiple case study of front end activities in process firms

The front end phase of the new product development has been examined extensively, yet few if any studies have examined the front end phase of new process development. By means of a multiple case study of process firms, this article aims to bridge this knowledge gap. Our results show that substantial differences in front end activities exist between the product development and process development domains. We conceptualize the front end in process development to be an iterative trial-and-error process, dominated by activities such as idea generation and refinement, literature reviews, anticipation of end-product changes, and various forms of experiments in bench scale, lab scale, and full-scale production. In addition, we highlight key problems in the front end and managerial remedies for how to mitigate them. While these findings provide theoretical implications for research into product development, process development and production management, the findings are particularly relevant to process development managers, plant managers, and development engineers interested in increasing the efficiency of production processes.     

When is FDI a capital flow?

In this paper we analyze the conditions under which a foreign direct investment (FDI) involves a net capital flow across countries. For this purpose, we investigate how multinational firms finance their foreign affiliates, globally or locally. We develop a contract theoretical model in which the financing structure is used to govern the incentives of managers. We find that the investment tends to be financed locally if managerial incentive problems are large. Thus, microeconomic governance problems may have macroeconomic implications for the net capital flow to host countries. Our results are consistent with survey data on German and Austrian investment flows of firms to Eastern Europe.     

The Emergence of Industrial Relations in Regional Trade Blocks — A Comparative Analysis

This article analyses the emergence and institutionalization of regional industrial relations arrangements in six regional integration agreements (European Union, North American Free Trade Association, Mercado Común del Sur, Economic Community of West African States, Southern African Development Community, Association of Southeast Asian Nations). In each, the article investigates human and social rights, labour standards, residence and social security rights of migrants, regional union and employer organization, and provisions for social dialogue. The article tries to explain the comparative differences in emergent regional industrial relations by testing four competing hypotheses based on integration and institutional theories specified at the regional and national level.     

Internationale Forschungs- und Entwicklungsstandorte

The internationalisation of research and development (R&D) is continuously increasing and will also take on steadily growing importance in the future. Firms are very mobile when deciding upon their R&D locations and choose locations where they can profit from local knowledge. In the light of the high degree of specialisation in certain technology fields by German firms while at the same time foreign firms focus their R&D activities on these very same fields, the authors recommend a broad approach for policies regarding education and basic research in order to be prepared for future technological developments.