Use of Statistics in the Monetary Policy of the Czech National Bank: The Case of a Country in Transition

In the presented text the authors judge the importance of statistics in the monetary policy of the Czech National Bank (CNB) over the course of the economic transformation process, with particular consideration of changing statistical needs and the possibilities and limits of statistical data exploitation in the monetary analyses. The importance of statistics lies on the level of collection and processing of statistical information and on the level of use of statistical methods to analyse data. Since the start of the 1990s the requirements for statistics were significantly influenced by monetary policy. In the period 1990–1997, monetary targeting was the primary influential factor. Since 1998, the monetary policy is influenced by inflation targeting. Statistical priorities switched from monetary data to economy and financial market data. Much progress has been made in the use of statistical methods for analysing data. Statistics available at present cover the CNB's standard monetary-policy requirements and are on par with those in developed countries. Its further development will reflect the standard changes taking place in the more advanced countries.     

网络信息安全与政府管制

随着互联网的迅猛发展和广泛应用,日趋严重的网络信息安全问题,对政府管制提出了更为复杂和系统的要求,在此情况下,如何管制"爆炸式"发展的互联网,既使宪法所赋予公民的言论自由可以在网络上充分且方便地享有,又能够抑制侵害他人、国家乃至社会自由和效率的不正当行为,这成为摆在中国政府面前的一项重要课题.本文分析了网络信息安全与政府管制的关系,提出了网络信息安全政府管制的政策选择.     

发展农业电子商务实现农业信息化

农业电子商务,作为先进的生产力,其潜在优势是不可忽略的。针对我国农业发展过程中面临的突出问题,提出农业电子商务是促进农业发展的强大推动力和客观需要。并研究了当前加快农业产业信息化进程中存在的困难并探讨了相应的解决策略。     

通用弹药条码系统在物流工程的应用

分析了条码技术的发展及二维条码技术在弹药领域应用的前景,重点介绍了弹药条码系统的组成与使用,初步确定了通用弹药保障的信息化模式。     

常德市科技资源配置现状、问题和对策

文章从科技人力资源、科技资金资源、科技物质资源和科技信息资源等方面分析了常德市科技资源配置的现状、存在的问题,并提出了相应的对策和建议。     

Sample Design and Allocation for Random Digit Dialling

Sample design and sample allocation methods are developed for random digit dialling in household telephone surveys. The proposed method is based on a two-way stratification of telephone numbers. A weighted probability proportional to size sample allocation technique is used, with auxiliary variables about the telephone coverage rates, within local telephone exchanges of each substrata. This makes the sampling design nearly “self-weighting” in residential numbers when the prior information is well assigned. A computer program generates random numbers for the local areas within the existing phone capacities. A simulation study has shown greater sample allocation gain by the weighted probabilities proportional to size measures over other sample allocation methods. The amount of dialling required to obtain the sample is less than for proportional allocation. A decrease is also observed on the gain in sample allocation for some methods through the increasing sample sizes.     

Progressive stress accelerated life tests under finite mixture models

In this paper, progressive stress accelerated life tests are considered when the lifetime of a product under use condition follows a finite mixture of distributions. The experiment is performed when each of the components in the mixture follows a general class of distributions which includes, among others, the Weibull, compound Weibull, power function, Gompertz and compound Gompertz distributions. It is assumed that the scale parameter of each component satisfies the inverse power low, the progressive stress is directly proportional to time and the cumulative exposure model for the effect of changing stress holds. Based on type-I censoring, the maximum likelihood estimates (MLEs) of the parameters under consideration are obtained. A special attention is paid to a mixture of two Rayleigh components. Simulation results are carried out to study the precision of the MLEs and to obtain confidence intervals for the parameters involved.     

The generalized Stackelberg equilibrium of the all-pay auction with complete information

We characterize the equilibrium of the all-pay auction with general convex cost of effort and sequential effort choices. We consider a set of n players who are arbitrarily partitioned into a group of players who choose their efforts ‘early’ and a group of players who choose ‘late’. Only the player with the lowest cost of effort has a positive payoff in any equilibrium. This payoff depends on his own timing vis-a-vis the timing of others. We also show that the choice of timing can be endogenized, in which case the strongest player typically chooses ‘late’, whereas all other players are indifferent with respect to their choice of timing. In the most prominent equilibrium the player with the lowest cost of effort wins the auction at zero aggregate cost. We thank Dan Kovenock and Luis C. Corchón for discussion and helpful comments. The usual caveat applies. Wolfgang Leininger likes to express his gratitude to Wissenschaftszentrum Berlin (WZB) for its generous hospitality and financial support.     

基于合作关系的供应链信息共享模式研究

首先研究了供应链上下游合作伙伴间信息共享博弈情况，并分析了影响信息共享的障碍因素。然后，从合作伙伴合作关系的视角探讨了供成链中合作伙伴的类型及合作目的，最后以此为基础构建出供应链合作伙伴的信息共事模式及技术支撑体系。     

区域性现代港口物流信息平台系统设计研究

以天津港及其现代物流发展的现状为背景,通过对物流系统需求分析,提出天津港物流信息系统存在的问题,并结合需求分析进行了区域性现代港口物流信息平台系统设计研究,构建了包括通讯专属网络、网络平台、系统管理平台、数据交换平台、应用系统平台和门户网站的总体系统构架,并对各个子系统的主要功能进行了描述。