我国科技企业融资的决定因素研究——基于科创板企业的机器学习分析

本文以手工收集的2019年7月至2020年12月所有申报科创板上市的企业为研究对象,研究了企业层面五大维度数十个因素对我国科技企业融资的预测效果,通过传统的OLS和机器学习降维排序方法,为科创板增量改革的实践效果提供了直接证据。研究发现:企业能否在科创板上市方面,企业研发水平、成长性和公司治理水平这三类反映企业未来发展潜力的特征占据主导作用,且研发水平最为关键,盈利的重要性最低;在众多研发变量中,企业研发人员人数占总人数比最为重要;企业能否在科创板上市和上市后二级市场表现的变量重要性排序各不相同,甚至相反;公司治理方面,国有股份占比的重要性强于其他治理机制。结合研究结论,本文从重视企业未来可持续发展、构建科研人才队伍培育和激励机制以及统筹考虑上市后的市场表现等角度,为科创企业发展提供了政策建议。     

The influence of private equity and venture capital on the post-IPO performance of newly-public acquirers

This paper examines the influence of private equity (PE) and venture capital (VC) ownership on the post-initial public offering (IPO) performance of newly-public acquirers. Our results show that acquirers with PE- or VC-backing at the time of the IPO perform better long-term than acquirers without such backing. More importantly, while acquirers without financial backing experience negative long-run returns from first-year acquisitions, acquirers with continued PE- and VC-backing perform significantly better when making acquisitions within the first year after going public. However, acquiring firms and investors should be aware that for mergers in the second and third year post-IPO, continued VC ownership has a detrimental long-term impact. In contrast, higher levels of continued PE ownership tend to have a positive relationship with long-run performance.     

Do anti-corruption campaigns affect IPO underpricing? Evidence from a central discipline inspection of the CSRC in China

The system of central discipline inspections has become a key anti-corruption governance tool in China since 2013. This paper investigates the impact of a central discipline inspection of the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) on initial public offering (IPO) underpricing. We find that IPO firms listed during the inspection period exhibit greater IPO underpricing than those listed outside the inspection period. The reason is the increased focus of the CSRC on maintaining capital market stability, which makes it more inclined to approve IPO firms with lower issue prices during the inspection period compared with other periods. We also find that IPO firms listed during the inspection period have better short-term market performance but poorer long-term returns than those listed outside the inspection period. Moreover, the effect of the anti-corruption inspection on IPO underpricing is more pronounced for non-state-owned enterprises, firms with low-quality auditors and firms located in regions with high corruption. Overall, our paper enriches the literature on IPO underpricing and the economic consequences of the central discipline inspection system.     

Predicting success in entrepreneurial finance research

We study the relationship between buyout and venture capital (VC) funds’ returns, and more typically available proxies—exits via M&A or IPO. We further explore the effects of filters on the selection of M&As and IPOs (to emphasize successes), on the relationship. We show that some of these filters can reduce the count of exits by as much as 80% without significantly improving the correlation between exits and fund returns. We also show that for venture capital funds, counting acquisitions that are at least twice the amount of funding raised results in the best correlation between exits via an acquisition and fund returns. Finally, when the sample comprises young startups – that are perhaps not yet ready for any form of exit – follow-on funding, employment, website ranking, and patent activity can be used as proxies for exits in place of IPOs or acquisitions.     

Auctions versus bookbuilding: The effects of IPO regulation in Japan

We analyze a regulatory change in the Japanese IPO market that created an abrupt shift from hybrid price-discriminatory auctions to bookbuilding. We find that bookbuilding leads to higher underpricing than hybrid price-discriminatory auctions. Furthermore, we find evidence that price accuracy tends to be higher for auctions than for bookbuilding. The results hold under a variety of OLS specifications and with regression discontinuity designs exploiting the abrupt change of the regulation.     

Climate change disclosure and the information environment in the initial public offering market

We investigate whether climate change disclosures in initial public offering (IPO) prospectuses affect the information environment in the IPO market. We find that climate change disclosures are associated with lower IPO underpricing. Further analyses reveal that reputable underwriters and the Securities Exchange Commission's Commission Guidance Regarding Disclosure Related to Climate Change enhance the information role of climate change disclosures in the IPO market. We demonstrate that firms with more extensive climate change disclosures provide stronger hedging benefits against climate change risks in the post-IPO period. Overall, our results support the crucial role of climate change disclosures in improving the information environment of the IPO market.     

金融科技发展与科技中小企业成长——来自专精特新“小巨人”企业的证据

科技中小企业的成长与发展是实施创新驱动战略的重要微观基础,近年来金融科技的发展对科技企业成长的影响越来越深远。本文基于2016-2021年的专精特新“小巨人”企业数据,构建交互固定效应模型,实证分析金融科技发展对科技中小企业成长的影响。研究发现,金融科技发展能够显著促进专精特新“小巨人”企业的成长。但这一影响关系受到一定条件的制约,所在地区营商环境好的企业,规模较大的企业和民营企业,其成长能力受到金融科技发展的促进作用更为明显。机制分析表明,缓解企业融资约束,缩短IPO进程和降低试错成本,是金融科技发展促进科技中小企业成长的内在机制。这一结论从金融科技发展的视角,丰富了关于科技中小企业成长能力的相关研究。     

基于主成分分析的IPO发行成本影响因素研究

在对IPO发行成本及其构成进行界定的基础上,对IPO发行成本影响因素展开分析,并采用主成分分析方法从原始变量中提取5个主成分因子,实证检验各主成分因子对中国证券市场IPO直接发行成本、间接发行成本和发行总成本的影响。研究结果表明,IPO发行成本受到规模、上市前股权结构和企业财务风险的影响;发行定价机制的变动显著影响直接发行成本,与间接发行成本和总成本的关系则不明显。     

中国机构投资者的学习机制研究——理性贝叶斯还是简单强化式学习

理论文献通常假设机构投资者遵循理性贝叶斯法则更新其信念,在此学习模式下,盈亏经验本身并不能直接影响机构行为。但该假设的合理性尚未得到实证研究的充分支持。中国新股发行中的抽签分配制度为检验上述命题提供了比较理想的随机实验机会。本文基于新股抽签分配数据,系统检验了随机的盈亏经验对机构投资行为的影响,结果发现:(1)机构投资者显著受制于幼稚的强化式学习机制的影响,即通过随机抽签在前期获得新股分配的机构(处置组)相对未获配机构(控制组),其下期参与新股申购的概率显著提高,并且前期收益率能够有效地强化这种盈利经历与参与概率之间的正向关系。(2)盈亏经验能够显著改变专业机构的估值信念,即前期通过随机抽签获得高收益体验的机构相对未获配机构,在后续新股询价过程中给出了显著更高的报价上调水平。(3)盈亏经验对机构行为产生影响的一种可能渠道是借助机构投资管理人的强化式学习过程,基于基金经理个人特征变量的调节机制研究表明,丰富的长期从业经验、高学历的教育水平以及多位基金经理的相互竞争都能在一定程度上缓解盈亏经历对基金行为的影响。本文基于随机实验的设计为经验与行为之间的因果关系提供了可信证据,证实了即使是被奉为理性投资者代表的专业机构也会受制于简单强化式学习的显著影响。     

数字平台企业的组织身份对金融资源获取的影响研究 ——基于模糊集定性比较分析

数字平台企业的生存与发展往往需要大量资金支持，然而，现有文献关于组织身份对其金融资源获取的影响并未展开深入研究。本文选取了61家赴美IPO的数字平台企业，采用模糊集定性比较分析（fsQCA），通过领域维度和角色维度的联动探究获取较高金融资源的组织身份路径。研究表明：存在四条身份路径可支撑数字平台企业获取较高的金融资源，具体可归纳为组织领域双导向的既定领导者身份与组织领域多导向的潜在领导者身份两种模式。其中，数字技术导向与非潜在竞争者为其共同的核心条件。结合现有理论解释和经典案例分析，本文提出了三个研究命题，为数字平台企业获取金融资源提供理论支撑，助力数字经济与平台经济发展。