LABOUR DEMAND IN GERMANY BY INDUSTRIAL SECTOR,OCCUPATIONAL FIELD AND QUALIFICATION UNTIL 2025 – MODEL CALCULATIONS USING THE IAB/INFORGE MODEL

By means of a trend extrapolation of microcensus structures (undertaken by the German Federal Statistical Office) for the time period 1996–2007, the projections for labour demand by industrial sector which the IAB already has at its disposal can be transferred to demand by occupational field and subsequently by qualification level until 2025. The findings which have been claimed for some time now are upheld: production-related occupations will lose in significance, while further increases in employment particularly in occupations in the service sector are to be expected. Accordingly, the demand for personnel with a degree from a university or a university of applied sciences will go on rising, while the labour market opportunities for unskilled workers will continue to fall. However, vocational training or its academic counterparts still remain the dominant form of training in Germany. A continuing employment trend is to be expected here.     

Stürze gezielt vermeiden

Ein kleiner Stolperschritt, ein kurzer Schwindel – schon ist es passiert. Die Folgen sind oft schwerwiegend: Denn Hüftfrakturen oder Oberschenkelhalsbrüche k?nnen zum Ausl?ser von Pflegebedürftigkeit werden. Besonders gef?hrdet sind ?ltere Menschen.     

On economic causes of civil war

We investigate whether civil wars have economic causes. Themodel is based on utility theory, rebels will conduct a civilwar if the perceived benefits outweigh the costs of rebellion.Using probit and tobit models the propositions are tested empirically.Four variables, initial income, ethno-linguistic fractionalisation,the amount of natural resources, and initial population sizeare significant and strong determinants of the duration andthe probability of civil wars. One important finding is thatthe relationship between civil wars and ethnic diversity isnon-monotoniq highly fractionalised societies have no greaterrisk of experiencing a civil war than homogenous ones.     

K?nnen sich erneuerbare Energien langfristig auf wettbewerblich organisierten Stromm?rkten finanzieren?

In this paper we address the issue of whether renewable energy sources can be integrated into power markets if the use of renewable energies is extended at the desired speed. Market integration means that renewable energy sources have to cover their full costs from revenues on competitive markets. In the first part of this paper, we evaluate the long-term revenues of intermittent renewable energy sources using a high resolution power market model. Considering the renewable targets of the German lead study of 2010, we show that due to the merit order effect, intermittent renewable energy sources, such as wind power and photovoltaic, cannot be financed through power markets alone, even if their full costs fall below those of conventional power plants. This is also true for scenarios with high CO₂-prices and increasing spot market prices. In the second part of this paper, we discuss whether in the long run additional instruments such as green certificates or capacity markets would allow for a more competitive financing of renewable energy sources. Center stage in the discussion is the question under which circumstances these instruments increase competitive pricing and decentralised market decisions.     

A Transposition of Territory: Decolonized Perspectives in Current Urban Research

In this article, we discuss the concept of territory from a decolonized perspective. We engage with the ongoing debate on decentralizing urban studies to outline the potential drawbacks of essentializing, generalizing or objectifying the urban. Through the socio‐territorial approach utilized here we seek to address these issues by shifting attention, first, to the social production of territory, and secondly, from an analysis of state strategies to the urban scale. We understand territory as being produced when subjects struggle over the practices, meanings and tenures of urban space. An example from Mexico City is employed to illustrate how territory becomes both the site and stake of social struggle. By focusing on the subjects involved in the production of territory, and on the way different subjects produce and reproduce hegemonic spaces and counter‐spaces, we emphasize three aspects in particular: first, a territory's specific material conditions; secondly, the imaginarios (social imaginaries) various actors inscribe into it; and thirdly, the communal land use form of the ejido as a unique territorial regulation. Finally, we argue for the empirical groundedness of the concept of territory with the aim of further pluralizing the field of urban studies. The socio‐territorial approach we propose explicitly focuses on power relations in the production of both urban space and knowledge.     

Need,Merit, or Self‐Interest—What Determines the Allocation of Aid?

Previous studies of aid allocation have concluded that foreign aid is allocated not only according to development needs but also according to donor self‐interest. We revisit this topic and allow for donor‐ as well as recipient‐specific effects in our analysis. In addition to comments on the statistical significance of our results we assess the relative economic importance of recipient need, merit, and donor self‐interest. Our results indicate that all bilateral donors allocate aid according to their self‐interest and recipient need. However, most bilateral donors seem to place little importance on recipient merit. Less than 1% of the variance of aid is accounted for by merit, ceteris paribus. The UK and Japan are exceptions: they allocate more aid to countries with higher growth, higher democracy scores, and fewer human rights abuses.     

Redistribution, Fiscal Competition, and the Politics of Economic Integration

The paper examines the consequences of the economic integration of factor markets in a model with two countries that redistribute income among their residents. The social benefits in each country are financed by a source based tax on capital which is democratically chosen by its inhabitants. If either capital or labour is internationally mobile, the countries engage in fiscal competition and the partial integration of capital or labour markets is detrimental to the countries' redistributive ability. A move from partial to full integration, however, may alleviate rather than intensify fiscal competition, particularly, if the two countries face sufficiently similar economic and political conditions. In such a situation, for example, tax competition for mobile capital is softened as the labour market becomes more integrated and even vanishes if both factors are fully mobile. As a result, there is more redistribution in equilibrium and a majority of the population in each country is strictly better off.