Dynamic causality testing for EKC hypothesis,pollution haven hypothesis and international trade in India

This study examines the causality relationships between foreign direct investment (FDI), economic growth (GDP) and CO₂ emissions along with the level of trade (exports and imports) taking place in India. The study uses data obtained from World Development Indicators (WDI) of World Bank Group for the period 1982–2013. The study employed the dynamic multivariate Toda-Yamamoto (TY) approach that uses the modified Wald (MWALD) test. Among the major findings of the study are: the existence of both Pollution Haven Hypothesis and Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) hypothesis in India. The other findings of the study are: FDI is causing exports; exports are causing imports; imports are causing CO₂ emissions; and finally CO₂ emissions and GDP are causing each other. This finding concludes mainly two things. First, India imports more of pollution-intensive manufactured goods. Second, FDI is causing GDP in India but through CO₂ emissions.     

民营企业出口贸易对我国经济增长影响的实证分析

文章计算了民营企业出口贸易对我国经济增长的贡献度和贡献率,发现民营企业外贸出口对我国经济增长的推动作用在不断增强;接下来运用Granger因果检验和协整检验证明了民营企业出口是我国经济增长的Granger原因,民营企业出口对我国经济增长的促进作用非常显著：     

黄金对美元和通货膨胀的对冲作用研究

在全球经济危机背景下黄金市场如火如荼,与萧条的全球市场产生巨大反差。同时引发了对黄金的新一轮追捧热潮。本文通过使用1995年1月至2009年6月期间的月度数据调查黄金对美元以及美国国内通货膨胀的对冲作用。通过协整检验明确了黄金价格和美元指数以及消费价格指数之间的长期关系。基于向量误差修正模型的格兰杰因果检验证明了黄金价格对美元指数以及消费者物价指数的单向作用。另外,研究结果还显示黄金可以作为通货膨胀的指示器对宏观经济指定提供参考。     

中国进口贸易与经济增长——基于格兰杰因果关系的实证研究

利用1978～2009年间的数据,通过建立误差修正模型,分别检验中国进口与经济增长的短期和长期因果关系。实证结果显示,进口贸易与中国经济增长具有双向的Granger因果关系,进口对经济增长的长期促进作用要比短期的促进作用更显著。这一结果支持我国十二五规划中将长期依赖出口导向型贸易发展战略调整为进口、出口平衡发展的贸易战略。     

中国外汇储备和物价水平关系的实证分析

本文采用1994～2010年的年度数据,在单整和协整检验的基础上,利用Granger因果检验对中国外汇储备与物价水平的内在联系进行实证分析。结果表明,外汇储备变动和物价水平变动之间不存在格兰杰因果关系。因此.通过人民币升值来减少外汇储备并不是抑制国内通货膨胀的有效方法。     

科技与金融发展的引导/滞后及反馈关系研究——基于常州数据的实证分析

本文运用向量误差修正模型(VECM),采用常州"十一五"期间的数据对常州市科技发展与金融发展之间的引导/滞后及反馈关系进行了实证研究。结果显示:过去五年,常州市科技发展与金融发展之间具有强关联关系,二者互为引导,互相促进,并存在反馈作用,但总体上说,科技发展对金融发展的引导作用更强。     

天然橡胶价格波动因素的实证研究

基于2002～2011年国内天胶价格、国际天胶价格、国内合成橡胶价格、国内汽车产量、世界经济增长率的月度数据,运用协整检验、Granger因果检验对国内天胶价格波动因素进行实证分析。研究结果表明:国际天胶价格、国内合成橡胶价格是国内天胶价格波动的最主要因素。国内天胶价格对国内合成橡胶价格及汽车产量有引导作用。     

Financial markets and economic performances: Empirical evidence from five industrialized economies

This paper investigates the nature of the links between the development of financial markets and economic performances in five advanced economies. The vector error correction model (VECM) establishes the quantitative importance of long-run relationships among three financial variables and the real output. Granger's causality test then suggests short-run causality between financial markets and the real sector as well as the substitution effect of the individual sectors in the financial market of each country. The results support the supply-leading hypothesis that the development of financial markets spurs growth for all countries except for Canada. The demand-driven hypothesis is confirmed for Canada only in the short run.     

Price relations between export and domestic rice markets in Thailand

Many rice importing countries argue that rice exporting nations isolate their domestic markets through the use of stabilization pricing policies which cause international rice markets to become excessively volatile. For the argument to hold any weight, price transmission between exporting countries’ domestic and export markets should be unidirectional whereby export prices are driven by domestic prices but domestic prices are not affected by export prices. The study tests the hypothesis on Thailand, traditionally the world’s largest rice exporter. The results from the causality tests are not entirely clear, however the results from the impulse response functions show that while the shocks originating in the domestic market are higher in magnitude in the export market in the short-run, the shocks originating in the export market are more persistent in the domestic market. This suggests that although Thailand’s domestic policies are somewhat effective in the immediate months after the shock they allow price transmission from its export market to transfer over to its domestic market in the long-run. The results therefore imply that Thailand’s domestic pricing programs are not heavily distorting world rice markets.     

汇率与股票价格的关系：理论前沿与实证研究综述

汇率与股价关系的理论研究主要从两个方向进行,一是将汇率、股价与其它宏观变量一起纳入到一般均衡的分析框架,二是从外汇市场微观结构的角度,通过考察国际间证券投资与套利行为从而在汇率与股价之间建立联系.对于两者之间关系的实证研究,则主要分为相关性检验与因果关系检验.从目前的研究成果看,无论是理论上还是实证上,对于股价和汇率关系的研究,都远未达成共识.