Estimating SUR system with random coefficients: the unbalanced panel data case

A system of regression equations for analyzing panel data with random heterogeneity in intercepts and coefficients, and unbalanced panel data is considered. A maximum likelihood (ML) procedure for joint estimation of all parameters is described. Since its implementation for numerical computation is complicated, simplified procedures are presented. The simplifications essentially concern the estimation of the covariance matrices of the random coefficients. The application and ‘anatomy’ of the proposed algorithm for modified ML estimation are illustrated by using panel data for output, inputs and costs for 111 manufacturing firms observed up to 22 years.     

Migration and Americanization: The special case of Belgian economics*

One of the distinguishing features of Belgian economics is that, from the early 1920s, so many of Belgium's best economists pursued postgraduate studies at top American universities, a case of ‘temporary’ migration. This was made possible by the fellowships granted by the Commission for Relief in Belgium, a legacy of the First World War. After a stay in the US of a few years, most returned to Belgium. However, they maintained strong links with the US. Also, they tried to recreate in Belgium the most valuable elements of their American experience. It would lead to a strong and early Americanization of Belgian economics. Moreover, they were at the forefront of several initiatives to organize economics on a European scale, such as the European Economic Review and the European Economic Association.     

Sponsorship effect metric: assessing the financial value of sponsoring by comparisons to television advertising

Since sponsoring is an increasingly important marketing communication medium, it is important for managers to know whether their sponsorships are giving a good financial return relative to other communication alternatives. Although several “rules of thumb” are commonly used in the industry for converting sponsorship exposure time into television advertising equivalent values, this research is the first to empirically test them by means of two experiments employing realistic stimuli and representative samples. Across 6 stimuli brands, study 1 finds that an average of 127 s of sponsor logo exposure achieves the same effects as a 30 s TV ad, but variance around this figure is high and depends on a variety of factors such as communication goal, sponsor fit, type of exposure, and whether the sponsor is a known brand. Study 2 finds that combining sponsoring with television advertising does increase the effects of sponsoring, although effects vary widely depending on the context, but even in the best case the increase is not supportive of the high levels of advertising suggested by many industry experts. Overall, the findings will allow managers to more confidently assess the financial value of their sponsorship investments.     

Secondary upwelling instabilities developed in high Rayleigh number convection: Possible applications to hot spots

We have conducted numerical experiments for mantle convection in an axisymmetrical spherical-shell geometry from Rayleigh numbers ranging from three million to 10 billion for a purely basal heating configuration. We focus on the development of secondary instabilities developed from plumes and compare them with laboratory experiments by Skilbeck and Whitehead (1978) and Whitehead, (1982). For Rayleigh numbers between around thirty million to one billion, a string of these secondary instabilities can develop from a single plume. Analysis of the spectrum of wavelength associated with the fold instabilities shows that there is a window in the Rayleigh number between around ten million and one bilion where these secondary folding instabilities would develop. These results, when applied to the upper mantle, may explain the formation of hot-spots in a turbulently convecting upper-mantle with a Rayleigh number greater than ten million.     

The Monetary Transmission Mechanism, Non-residential Fixed Investment and Housing

We specify a vector autoregression (VAR) model for the U.S. for 1980–2008 to investigate the statistical causal relationships between private non-residential fixed investment, the effective Federal funds rate, personal consumption expenditures, nonfinancial corporate profits, and the nonfinancial corporate credit market debt to test the validity of macroeconomic relationships in a macro model. The VAR utilizes the Toda-Yamamote procedure to test for Granger causality. Our preliminary results show that the transmission mechanism does not work as expected; we find that fixed investment depends on the level of demand in the economy and profits but not on the interest rate. This casts doubt on the usual assumptions about how the monetary transmission mechanism is expected to work. The second part of the paper investigates the effects of the change in the monetary regime towards low and stable interest rates, a policy pursued by the U.S. Fed since the beginning of the 1990s. We find that the new monetary policy regime has the following effects: (1) our VAR model does not support the hypothesis that low interest rates lead to higher fixed nonresidential investment; (2) low interest rates led to a search for higher yields through increasing risk, and (3) they led to an increase in the demand for securitized assets, especially mortgage-backed securities, which eventually resulted in a housing bubble. The overall results therefore raise doubts about the effectiveness of low interest rates as a policy regime designed as a component of a counter-cyclical policy.     

The Non-Trivial Choice between Innovation Indicators

We discuss the strengths and weaknesses of five alternative innovation indicators: R&D, patent applications, total innovation expenditure and shares in sales taken by imitative and by innovative products as they were measured in the 1992 Community Innovation Survey (CIS) in the Netherlands. We conclude that the two most commonly used indicators (R&D and patent applications) have more (and more severe) weaknesses than is often assumed. Moreover, our factor analysis suggests that there is little correlation between the various indicators. This underlines the empirical relevance of various sources of bias of innovation indicators as discussed in this paper.     

The knowledge spillover theory of entrepreneurship

According to the knowledge spillover theory of entrepreneurship, the context in which decision-making is derived can influence one’s determination to become an entrepreneur. In particular, a context that is rich in knowledge generates entrepreneurial opportunities from those ideas. By commercializing ideas that evolved from an incumbent organization via the creation of a new firm, the entrepreneur (human capital) not only serves as a conduit for the spillover of knowledge, but also for the ensuing innovative activity and enhanced economic performance through resource allocation. The knowledge spillover theory of entrepreneurship brings together contemporary theories and thoughts of entrepreneurship with prevailing theories of economic growth, geography, and strategy and therefore explains not just why some people choose to become an entrepreneur, but also why this matters significantly for the economy and society.     

The Labour Input Response to Permanent Changes in Output: An Errors-in-Variables Analysis Based on Panel Data

Using panel data for Norwegian manufacturing, we revisit 'the increasing returns to scale puzzle' for labour inputs. We consider the response of the input of white-collar workers, blue-collar workers, and blue-collar worker hours to permanent changes in output. Permanent and temporary changes in output are treated as latent variables. We compare OLS, IV, and GMM estimates of the response elasticities and conclude that the distinction between permanent and temporary changes is essential. Our GMM estimates suggest that the 'increasing returns to scale puzzle' remains for all measures of the labour input also when we consider their response to permanent changes in output. For materials, the output response indicates approximately constant returns to scale. This suggests non-homotheticity of the production technology.
JEL classification : C 23; J 23     

质量调整生命年：挑战

一、简介 Weinstein等人阐述了QALY的概念、方法及暗含的假设。尽管引起了许多有趣的争论，但本文仅限于对我们认为最具挑战性的四个争论点进行研究。