中国实体企业金融化:货币扩张、资本逐利还是风险规避?

本文构建了一个刻画实体企业在流动性金融资产和固定资产之间进行权衡的投资组合选择模型,并创新性地将货币扩张的宏观因素引入微观模型,推演中国实业部门金融化的驱动逻辑。理论模型显示:货币扩张、资本逐利和风险规避本质上是宏观和微观两个不同层面的要素变量,但都卷入实业部门金融化的驱动机制中,然而驱动效应的表现形式要比已有文献的理论模型更加复杂。基于上市公司面板数据总体样本的实证结果表明:货币扩张、资本逐利和风险规避均是企业金融化的关键影响因素,但货币扩张表现为直接抑制和间接促进两种效应。进一步引入宏观风险因素和根据企业所有权性质划分样本的稳健性检验则给出了更为细致的信息:货币因素可能通过宏观风险因素间接作用于企业金融化;所有权性质不同的企业的金融化驱动机制也表现出明显的异质性:国有企业金融化主要受货币因素和风险规避因素影响;民营企业金融资产占比层面的金融化驱动因素是风险规避和资本逐利,而金融渠道获利占比层面的金融化则受到货币因素的显著影响;其他类型企业的金融化主要受货币因素的显著影响。     

超预期股本扩张与分析师每股盈余预测

卖方分析师的每股盈余预测在实证文献中被广泛使用。该指标同时依赖于分析师对目标公司未来净利润的预测和对目标公司未来股本数量的预测。因此,如果在分析师发布预测后,目标公司的股本数量发生超出分析师预期的扩张,则每股盈余预测将无法代表分析师对目标公司未来基本面的预测。本文构建了“调整后每股盈余预测”指标,该指标可剔除超预期股本扩张对每股盈余预测的影响,真实反映分析师对目标公司未来基本面的预测。本文应用该指标,在两个具体的实证研究场景中证明了,忽略超预期股本扩张的影响可能得出错误的实证结论。本文还进一步指出了三个忽略超预期股本扩张的影响可能导致错误实证结果的研究场景。     

利用虚拟经济的功能根治我国流动性膨胀——区别经济泡沫化与经济虚拟化的政策含义

我国经济高度依赖出口的状况短期内不会改变,这就意味着持续双顺差导致的资金大量流入的状态不会在短期内改变。在中国金融资产数量和品种有限的情况下,外部输入的流动性膨胀必然引起资产价格上升,加上流通中的人民币缺乏退出机制,持续的流动性膨胀将逼使中国经济走向经济泡沫化的途径,并使得紧缩、扩张、再紧缩、再扩张的循环周期越来越短。吸取日本泡沫经济的教训,借鉴美国经济虚拟化的有益经验,建立以数量和品种扩张为主的虚拟经济系统,充分发挥其流动性储备池的功能,一方面有利于建立人民币的输出渠道,从而有利于人民币的国际化;另一方面也能建立消除流动性膨胀的长效机制。     

速度为王:国际化扩张速度与企业绩效的元分析

国际化扩张速度如何影响企业绩效是国际商务领域的一个新兴话题.本文收集整理了1990-2020年的38篇独立研究文献,采用元分析方法探讨国际化扩张速度及其子维度与企业绩效之间的关系,以及影响这一关系的边界条件.研究结果表明,国际化扩张速度会提升企业绩效,但这一关系受到特定的边界条件的制约.当跨国公司来自新兴市场国家时,基...     

零售企业的连锁扩张战略风险因素研究

我国零售业的连锁经营模式起步较晚,发展迅速,但是目前存在诸多的问题。战略风险是我国零售企业面临的一大问题,面对竞争越来越激烈的市场,本土零售企业面临巨大的生存压力,解决好战略风险问题是企业能够生存与发展的关键,从系统的观点出发,战略风险因素是多角度、多方面的,是一个相对复杂多变的大系统,并且各种因素之间相互制约．相互作用。文章以企业生存因素理论为基础,从整体环境因素、产业特性因素和企业本身的特性三个方面分析了现阶段我国零售企业所面临的战略风险,主要包括：宏观环境、行业市场环境、物流配送、企业战略本身、战略资源以及企业竞争能力六个因素,对于连锁零售企业战略风险因素的研究,可以为战略风险的预测、控制与规避研究指明方向。     

Advertising time expansion, compression, and cognitive processing influences on consumer acceptance of message and brand

This article examines the nature of consumer process involvement and cognitive processing of advertising content as mediating variables between commercial message executions (e.g., broadcast time compression and expansion and using broadcast versus print media) on attitude and behavioral intentions. The article proposes a framework that builds on the prior work of Krugman, Wright, and MacInnis and colleagues; the framework includes hypotheses of an advertising execution and processing involvement interaction effect on cognitive processing of commercial messages and a substantial direct effect of cognitive processing on attitude and behavioral intention. The article includes details of an experiment testing hypotheses in the framework. The findings provide strong support of the hypotheses. Implications for advertising strategy include adopting a conservative view on the use of time compression in advertising commercials and nurturing low consumer processing involvement of commercial messages.     

Inside the regional multinationals: A new value chain perspective on subsidiary capabilities

We discuss the strategic significance of ‘regional multinationals’, and highlight a number of conceptual and empirical challenges that a regional multinationals research agenda should address. In line with the intellectual legacy of the late Alan Rugman, we argue that to deepen our understanding of regional strategy and organization, we cannot limit ourselves to studying the multinational enterprise’s (MNE’s) geographic footprint, but we must also explore the entire spectrum of regional elements in the firm’s organizational functioning, including the impact of the regional effect on subsidiary capabilities across the value chain. More specifically, we argue that operating in a host region can affect a foreign subsidiary’s capabilities: subsidiaries of outsider MNEs (meaning headquartered outside of the region) are disadvantaged as compared to insider MNE subsidiaries. This regional effect, however, is predicted to vary according to the value chain activity considered. Further, the regional effect will tend to diminish over time, though at a different pace for the various value chain activities.     

一个基于小样本的银行信用风险评级模型的设计及实证

银行信用风险评价是判别不同银行风险的大小。它对于测算不同银行违约率的大小提供依据。根据银行的资本充足性、资产质量、管理水平、盈利水平、流动性和社会敏感度等六个准则的指标体系,通过最优主客观赋权确定指标权重。通过对评价得分的分布检验找到评价得分的分布规律。根据评价得分的分布规律模拟生成数据,扩大样本数据。进而根据扩充的数据划分银行的信用风险等级。本章的创新与特色一是通过对评价得分的分布规律进行检验,揭示了商业银行信用风险评价得分服从对数分布规律。这解决了面对商业银行的样本数据极为有限的现实世界、如何在信用评级中进行数据扩充的难题。二是根据统计检验揭示出的对数分布规律进行数值模拟,对符合分布规律的、拓展原始样本1000倍后的评级得分数据进行信用等级划分,解决了小样本无法进行信用等级划分的难题。三是大样本的实证研究结果表明,本研究对已评级结果的序关系与国家权威机构评级结果的序关系是一致的。     

The Boom and the Slump: a Causal Account of the 1990s/2000s and the 1920s/1930s

Not all booms are alike, nor are slumps. The institutions and the shocks are never exactly the same. Yet the late 1990s boom, and its unwinding, strikingly parallel the boom of the roaring 1920s, the deep decline into the early 1930s andonly a partial rebound. Both experiences began with an investment boom, then a downturn in investment while consumption held up. Economic activity closely tracked investment. The realizations of extraordinary productivity gains were present in the problematic and incomplete recovery of the 1930s, which suggests the possibility that return to the medium‐term natural rate of unemployment may be a rather long process. I expect the rest of the decade to resemble the rest of the 1930s – a limited recovery with investment and employment below historical norms.     

On the Probability of (Non-) Ruin in Infinite Time

In the context of the classical Poisson ruin model Gerber (1988a,b) and Shiu (1987, 1989) have obtained two formulae for the ruin and non ruin probabilities in infinite time. Here these two formulae are generalized to the case of an arbitrary premium process when all claims are integer-valued, as in Picard & Lefèvre (1997). Moreover, this generalization throws a new light on the two known formulae and it then leads very simply to a third new formula.