How Wealthy are the Rich?

Underreporting and undersampling biases in top tail wealth, although widely acknowledged, have not been statistically quantified so far, essentially because they are not readily observable. Here we exploit the functional form of power law-like regimes in top tail wealth to derive analytical expressions for these biases, and use German microdata from a popular survey and rich list to illustrate that tiny differences in non-response rates lead to tail wealth estimates that differ by an order of magnitude, in our case ranging from 1 to 9 trillion euros. Underreporting seriously compounds the problem, and we find that the estimation of totals in scale-free systems oftentimes tends to be spurious. Our findings also suggest that recent debates on the existence of scale- or type-dependence in returns to wealth are ill-posed because the available data cannot discriminate between scale- or type-dependence, on one hand, and statistical biases, on the other hand. Yet both economic theory and mathematical formalism indicate that sampling and reporting biases are more plausible explanations for the observed data than scale- or type-dependence.     

Did it pay to be a pioneer? Wealth accumulation in a newly settled frontier society

European settler colonies are often thought to have been characterised by a continued expansion of the landed frontier, which impacted the distribution of wealth across their settler populations. Hampered by a lack of data, few studies have been able to study this in depth. How does settlement timing affect wealth and wealth accumulation when frontier expansion is not a smooth, continuous process? Was it the case that pioneers reaped greater economic benefits from locating their farms on superior land, or would they be disadvantaged compared with later arrivals owing to limited infrastructure or greater risk of conflict with indigenous populations? In this paper, we use a unique dataset that allows us to analyse the link between time of arrival and wealth accumulation in a colonial agrarian frontier society: the Graaff-Reinet district in South Africa's Cape Colony between 1786 and 1850. We find that those who arrived early located their farms in the more climatologically suitable areas of the district and utilised their superior lands to accumulate wealth more quickly than latecomers. However, owing to institutional changes that favoured later British arrivals, we also show that the existence of an early-arrival premium did not mean persistence in land ownership.     

农户社会阶层对土地流转行为的影响——基于财富资本与声望资本的视角

研究目的：依据韦伯的社会分层理论与可持续生计理论，探讨农户社会阶层与土地流转行为之间的整体性关系与多维度关系，以丰富既有的土地流转行为研究，为农户社会分层背景下土地资源的优化配置提供政策启示。研究方法：双向固定效应模型。研究结果：（1）在城镇化进程中，农户内部的社会阶层不断动态调整，社会分层现象愈发凸显。（2）农户社会阶层对土地流转行为具有正向影响，且这种影响具有一定的滞后性。（3）农户财富资本而非声望资本正向影响土地流转行为，且财富资本的影响远高于社会经济地位指数。研究结论：农户社会阶层尤其是财富资本的提升有助于土地流转行为的发生，这对于推动农村土地流转市场发展，提升土地资源配置效率具有重要意义。     

ESG表现的类保险效应研究：基于公共危机事件的准自然实验

越来越多的公司将ESG视为一项公司战略行为,其表现对公司价值产生重要影响。选择以新冠疫情冲击这一突发公共危机事件作为准自然实验场景,基于ESG的保险投资理论探讨了在疫情冲击下,企业过往的ESG表现能否发挥“类保险”的投资效用,缓解疫情造成的价值损失。研究结果表明：（1）企业ESG表现可以发挥“类保险”的经济效应,缓解疫情对企业造成的股东财富损失,但这一保险效应只在疫情爆发后的超短和长期窗口期中得以凸显,且在长期窗口期更为稳健;（2）资源效应和信息披露效应是企业ESG表现发挥“类保险”作用的两种中介机制;（3）企业ESG表现的“类保险”作用在低疫情风险区域、高客户集中度和低国际化水平的企业中更为明显。研究结果验证了企业ESG行为具备“类保险”的经济效应,能有效缓解疫情对公司经营的不利冲击,为企业加强整体风险管理提供了新的视角。     

被并方CEO并购补偿:财富转移抑或薪酬契约完善?——基于并购溢价与并购绩效双重视角的实证研究

以2009—2021年被并方为上市公司的样本作为研究对象，基于并购溢价与并购绩效双重视角系统地分析被并方CEO并购补偿的作用是代理问题加剧的财富转移还是代理问题缓解的薪酬契约完善。研究发现：当预期并购协同效应较低时，被并方CEO并购补偿与并购溢价显著正相关，更多地体现为薪酬契约完善；当预期并购协同效应较高时，被并方CEO并购补偿与并购溢价显著负相关，直接后果是压低了被并方的并购溢价，更多地体现为财富转移。薪酬契约完善假说与财富转移假说得以存在的主要作用机制是不同协同效应下被并方CEO留任的可能性存在显著差异，CEO留任在并购补偿对并购溢价的影响中发挥了中介效应。进一步研究发现：被并方CEO并购补偿对主并方短期并购绩效具有显著正向影响，对并购后商誉减值具有负向影响，说明从整个并购市场的角度来看，被并方CEO并购补偿是一种“顾全大局”的薪酬契约完善。     

人工智能的财富分配效应研究*

人工智能对经济不平等的影响引起学术界的广泛重视，但是现有研究以分析其对劳动收入不平等的影响为主，关于人工智能对财富分配从而对财产性收入不平等影响的相关研究尚有欠缺。本文通过构建一个连续时间异质性个体动态一般均衡模型，将人工智能对生产技术的影响看作一揽子偏向性技术进步，研究人工智能技术对财富分配的影响。分析发现，人工智能对财富不平等的影响在短期和长期表现有所不同，短期中人工智能技术的应用会提高经济中财富分配不平等程度，而长期中其财富分配效应则取决于人工智能对不同类型技术进步的促进程度。核心机制在于，人工智能技术进步的多样性在短期和长期中对资本回报率产生不同影响，短期中各类技术进步总是会提高资本回报率，而在长期，不同类型的技术进步对资本回报率的影响出现差异。基于以上结论，本文就我国如何在应用人工智能促进增长的同时预防不平等程度扩大提出了政策建议。     

When does the manufacturing reshoring strategy create value?

Reshoring has gained a lot of attention recently by academics and practitioners alike, and is promising to become even more relevant in the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic. Building on earlier research on the effects of reshoring announcements on the short-term market value of the firm, this work employs an event-study methodology and aims to understand under which circumstances the market perceives reshoring as potentially more (or less) value-creating. The analysis of a sample of 64 reshoring instances from 2005 to 2019, announced by 54 firms from eight developed economies, suggests that investors are more confident in the firm's future cash-flow potential when: a) it invests in productive activities at home, instead of overseas, i.e. ‘kept-from-offshoring’ (as opposed to actual relocations of activities, i.e. ‘back-reshoring’); b) the reshoring instance is communicated as a ‘plan’ (rather than a fixed ‘decision’); c) no state- or government-induced financial incentives are involved; d) the motivations are primarily ‘cost-efficiency seeking’ (rather than ‘customer perceived value seeking’).     

空间均衡导向下的生态产品价值实现路径及演进 ——基于改进四象限模型的理论分析

研究目的：测度2015—2020年全国31省的物质和生态财富价值变化，探讨生态产品价值实现的空间均衡框架，为不同区域的实践探索提供参考。研究方法：改进四象限模型、归纳总结法和案例分析法。研究结果：（1）2015—2020年全国31省GEP和人均GEP分别增长了19.35%和16.80%，但空间不均衡的格局差异愈发明显。（2）以物质和生态财富的均衡状态构建基于改进四象限模型的空间均衡框架，将31省划分为6个象限分区，各分区生态产品的供需强度存在相对势差。（3）处于不同象限的地区应在生态修复整治、生态保护补偿、生态权益交易、生态产业开发、产业生态转型5种主要路径中因地制宜进行匹配组合，并朝着物质与生态财富协同的理想均衡线演进。研究结论：剖析物质与生态财富的协同关系及生态产品供需强度对生态产品价值实现路径的指导依据，探索价值实现的空间均衡方向和路径演进策略，有利于实现区域间“富绿”协同。     

中国上市公司定向增发的短期财富效应研究

定向增发是我国上市公司股权再融资的主流方式.对于上市公司来说,定向增发可以为公司的发展和成长提供资金;对于投资者来说,定向增发为他们提供了良好的投资机会.短期财富效应是指证券市场各因素引起股价发生波动而给股东带来的额外收益.因此,选择39家上市公司定向增发短期财富效应进行研究,其中以2007年10月16日为分界,选取2007年3、4月实施定向增发的21家上市公司及2008年3、4月实施定向增发的18家上市公司为样本,分别分析定向增发在牛市和熊市中的财富效应.在实证研究中,通过超额收益率,建立一元线性回归模型,对样本公司定向增发的市场变化、股东收益进行研究,并得出结论.     

Optimal reinsurance and portfolio selection: Comparison between partial and complete information models

We consider partial and complete information models to investigate how partial information has a unique quality over complete information for insurers. We find that optimal reinsurance and investment strategies for the partially informed insurer depend on prior beliefs, whereas those for the completely informed insurer do not. In addition, information quality can affect insurer behaviour, mainly through the relative difference between risk-adjusted market premium and risk-adjusted insurance premium projected on the financial markets. Numerical results indicate that partial information increases the conservativeness of insurer strategies.