唐代山东农业经济发展的政治环境及其影响

政治与经济是互动的,政治对经济有反作用,古代社会尤其如此。唐代以安史之乱为界点,其政治分为贞观、开元时期和安史之乱后两个阶段。前者政治清明,表现在中央派遣观察使、实施宽刑减罚的政策和稳固农业发展的措施等,促进了山东农业经济的发展和繁荣;后者政治环境恶劣,表现在中央权力削弱、藩镇割据局面形成、藩镇间的不断战争以及农民战争的爆发等,致使山东农业经济遭到破坏,恢复发展缓慢。     

The impact of agricultural policy on farm income concentration: the case of regional implementation of the CAP direct payments in Italy

One of the objectives of agricultural policy worldwide concerns the support of farm income. Common Agricultural Policy direct payments (DPs) are the main instruments to support farm income in the European Union. This article addresses their role in the concentration of farm income. This is done by calculating the Gini coefficient and its disaggregation in a large sample of Italian farms in the period between 2006 and 2007. Although this approach has been used to develop ex‐post analysis in previous studies, this article is innovative given that it is used here in an ex ante analysis aimed at evaluating the likely impact of a recent reform proposal. This latter requests changing the current model to a regional model of DPs application to make payment rates (i.e., payment per hectare) homogeneous among farms in the same region. The analysis shows that DPs and farm incomes are both very concentrated but that DPs allow for an income concentration reduction in Italian farms. The shift to a regional implementation reduces DPs concentration and, to a limited extent, farm income concentration. Of the considered regionalization scenarios, those that redistribute DPs among regions are the most effective in reducing concentration. The extension of the Gini considered approach to an ex ante setting seems effective because it provides insights that could feed the policy debate regarding the forthcoming reform.     

The estimation of agricultural policy effects on soil erosion—An application for the bio-economic model MODAM

As agricultural policies affect land use, they have effects on the amount of soil erosion in agricultural regions through changes of the economic conditions of agricultural production. Prices of inputs and outputs, regulations and incentives can change, forcing or encouraging farmers to adopt new crop rotations. This paper shows how a bio-economic model can be used to describe and estimate the effects of policies on agricultural production and the risk of soil erosion at the example of a region in North-Eastern Germany. The model uses both an assessment tool that is based on a fuzzy-logic approach for the estimation of soil erosion risk of cropping practices, and a linear programming model, that simulates farmers’ economic behaviour under the assumption of gross margin maximisation being the main goal of farmers’ actions.The analysed policy options were both a targeted and an untargeted incentive programme for reduced tillage, and a restriction option where high erosive crops are not allowed on high erodible field types. The results show that policy changes can have an impact on soil erosion. Furthermore, soil conservation policies are shown to have different levels of efficiency in terms of reduced soil erosion related to the costs of the policy. In the case of this study, a restriction option was more efficient than the incentive options. The results of such simulations can serve as a decision support for the development of soil conservation policies and help to foresee the effects of general changes of agricultural policies.     

国民政府时期农本局与现代农业金融

农本局曾作为国民政府调整农业金融的机关,通过辅导成立合作社,辅助设立合作金库,建立农业仓库,初步建立起一套实行农贷的网络,这些都促进了现代农业金融的发展,一定程度上流通了农业金融,打击了农村的高利贷。由于存在一些问题,农本局没有完全实现其调整农业金融的目标,最后农贷业务移交给中国农民银行。     

Shift of the short-term temperature mortality relationship by a climate factor - some evidence necessary to take account of in estimating the health effect of global warming

Several studies have reported a 'V'-shaped relationship between short-term temperature and mortality rates, characterized by mortality rates that are higher when the temperature is extremely low or high than when the temperature is moderate. To quantify the effect of adaptation to a certain climate on this V-shaped short-term temperature-mortality relationship, we studied the prefecture-specific relationship between daily maximum temperature and mortality rates for 65+-years-old Japanese from 1972 to 1990. For both genders, the optimum daily maximum temperature (OT) category at which the mortality rate was minimum ranged from 23C-28 C to 33+C, and the OT level became lower when the climate became colder. The mean OT level was lower for women than for men by 1.7C. The mortality rate at the OT was almost constant across prefectures, regardless of the climate. From the results, we considered that the adaptation effect on the short-term temperature-mortality relationship is mainly described by the 'horizontal shift model': the V-shape moves horizontally according to the climate. This 'shift' should be taken into account in estimating the health effect of global warming, and the model would be useful for the estimation.     

Aggregate supply response in Tanzanian agriculture

Tanzania is among the many African countries that have engaged in agricultural liberalization since the mid-1980s. in the hope that reforms that introduce price incentives and efficient marketing will encourage producers to respond. This paper assesses that claim by examining the supply response of agricultural output in Tanzania. Our estimates suggest that aggregate agricultural supply response is quite high so that the potential for agricultural sector response to liberalization of agricultural prices and marketing may be quite significant. The long-run elasticity of aggregate food crop output to relative prices was almost unity. Short-run supply responses were estimated at about 0.35 for aggregate food crops and for all (food and export) crops. Liberalization of agricultural markets, where it increases the effective prices paid to farmers, can be effective in promoting production, although complementary interventions, to improve infrastructure, marketing, access to inputs and credit, improved production technology etc, are probably necessary.     

China’s Agricultural Policy Transition: Impacts of Recent Reforms and Future Scenarios

This article reviews recent developments in China’s agricultural domestic support policy, especially the transition from taxing farmers and agriculture to providing direct subsidies to grain production and purchased inputs. A model‐based quantitative analysis on the effects of these policy changes is presented. Simulation results suggest that recent policy changes have achieved the declared policy goals of increasing grain production and boosting farm income. Much of the increase in grain production and farm income can be attributed to higher per unit return to arable land, land reallocation to grain production and extra agricultural employment triggered by the policy changes. Based on the assumption that China’s public assistance to agriculture and farmers will continue and rise, two hypothetical future scenarios are simulated. Using all the support permitted under WTO de minimis limits with existing instruments, China’s policy will increase grain production, change trade patterns seemingly contrary to China’s comparative advantage, increase rural employment and significantly increase farm income (by more than 12%). If, however, decoupled instruments are applied to raise China’s agricultural domestic support to the same level, China’s agricultural production and trade will remain unchanged, rural employment remain stable, but farm income will be increased by nearly 15%.     

我国农产品价格与热钱的实证研究

自2005年中国汇率形成机制改革以来,热钱流入中国的话题就开始趋热。在2006年末,世界农产品价格大幅上涨,围绕粮食、食品的国内外投资和交易成为新的经济热点。鉴于最近中国农产品价格发生了强烈波动的事实和农产品市场的重要性,本文通过对热钱规模和农产品价格指数的月度数据进行实证分析,得出热钱与农产品价格存在均衡关系,是农产品价格变化的Granger原因。     

Specialization or diversification? The situation and transition of households’ livelihood in agricultural heritage systems

Zhagana Agriculture-Forest-Animal Husbandry Composite System (ZCS) is the first Globally Important Agricultural Heritage Systems site in the Tibetan Plateau. Similar to many traditional agricultural regions, with the development of tourism and leisure agriculture, the peasant households in ZCS have gradually changed their livelihood strategies and livelihood activities in the past 10 years, resulting in the disappearance of some traditional farming methods and agricultural landscapes with a long history. By taking livelihood assets as the entry point and livelihood strategies as the core, this paper analyzed the basic situation of households’ livelihood and the transition mechanism of different livelihood strategies in order to offer suggestions for the dynamic conservation and sustainable development of Agricultural Heritage Systems (AHS). (1) The livelihood strategies of peasant households in ZCS can be divided into two major categories: specialized strategies and diversified strategies. (2) According to the empirical calculation of the livelihood asset accounting framework of AHS, the average livelihood asset value of peasant households in ZCS is 2.040, showing that the situation of peasant households’ livelihood is inadequate. (3) The transition of peasant households’ livelihood strategies from traditional strategy to specialized or diversified livelihood strategies is mainly influenced by natural assets, human assets, cultural assets, social assets and informational assets. In order to meet the growing material and spiritual needs of peasant households and achieve the sustainable development of ZCS simultaneously, it is suggested that the agriculture-forestry-animal husbandry-tourism composite strategies shall be taken as the development direction of peasant households’ livelihood strategies.     

关于我国农业保险法律制度建设的思考

一个国家农业的发展与农业保险的开展有着密切的联系,而农业保险的开展又得益于其法律、法规的完善。迄今为止,我国农业保险仍在低谷徘徊,究其原因:很大程度就是农业保险的发展没有法律的规制与保障。因此,发展农业保险,建立健全农业保险法律保障机制已迫在眉睫。