Libéralisation financière,développement financier et croissance économique: Nouvelle évidence empirique

Résumé: La relation entre le développement financier et la croissance économique a suscité beaucoup d’attention ces dernières années dans la littérature économique. Dans ce papier, nous avons présenté, en premier lieu, l’effet du développement bancaire sur la croissance économique à travers une validation empirique en données de panel d’un modèle à effets aléatoires de 52 pays de 1980 à 2005, et en second lieu, nous avons essayé d’explorer les liens qui peuvent exister entre le développement financier au sens large (bancaire et boursier) et la croissance économique à travers une analyse en coupe transversale pour 42 pays durant la période 1988–2002. Les principaux résultats retenus de ce travail montrent que le niveau du développement financier au sens large peut être un facteur important pour la croissance économique. Toutefois, force est de signaler que cette contribution est conditionnée par la réunion de certaines conditions.     

The Impact of Fixed Exchange Rates on Fiscal Discipline

In this paper, it is shown that contrary to standard arguments, fiscal discipline is not substantially enhanced by a fixed exchange rate regime. This study is based on data from 116 countries collected from 1975 to 2004, and uses various estimation techniques for dynamic panel data, in particular a generalized method of moments estimation in the tradition of Arellano and Bover [Journal of Econometrics (1995), 68 , 29] and Blundell and Bond [Journal of Econometrics (1998), 87 , 115]. Contrary to previous papers on this topic, the present paper takes into account that the consequences of a new exchange rate regime do not necessarily fully manifest immediately.     

Market and Model Credit Default Swap Spreads: Mind the Gap!

Structural models of default establish a relation across the fair values of various asset classes (equity, bonds, credit derivatives) referring to the same company. In most circumstances such relation is verified in practice, as different financial assets tend to move in the same direction at similar speed. However, occasional deviations from the theoretical fair values occur, especially in times of financial turmoil. Understanding how the dynamics of the theoretical fair values of various assets compares to that of their market values is crucial to a number of market participants. This paper investigates whether a popular structural model, the CreditGrades approach proposed by Finger (2002) , Stamicar and Finger (2005) , succeeds in explaining the dynamic relation between equity/option variables and Credit Default Swap (CDS) premia at individual company level. We find that CDS model spreads display a significant correlation with CDS market spreads. However, the gap between the two is time varying and widens substantially in times of financial turbulence. The analysis of the gap dynamics reveals that this is partly due to episodes of decoupling between equity and credit markets, and partly due to shortcomings of the model. Finally, we observe that model spreads tend to predict market spreads.     

Does corporate social responsibility affect the cost of capital?

We examine the effect of corporate social responsibility (CSR) on the cost of equity capital for a large sample of US firms. Using several approaches to estimate firms’ ex ante cost of equity, we find that firms with better CSR scores exhibit cheaper equity financing. In particular, our findings suggest that investment in improving responsible employee relations, environmental policies, and product strategies contributes substantially to reducing firms’ cost of equity. Our results also show that participation in two “sin” industries, namely, tobacco and nuclear power, increases firms’ cost of equity. These findings support arguments in the literature that firms with socially responsible practices have higher valuation and lower risk.     

Nonstationarity and Stochastic Stability of Relative Income Clubs

The recent literature on “convergence” of cross‐country per capita incomes has been dominated by the two hypotheses of “global convergence” and “club‐convergence,” pertaining to limits of estimated income distribution dynamics. Utilizing a new measure of “stochastic stability,” we establish two stylized facts regarding short‐ and medium‐term distribution dynamics. The first is non‐stationarity of transition dynamics, in the sense of changing transition kernels, and the second is emergence, disappearance, and re‐emergence of a “stochastically stable” middle income group. This middle income group emerges as the gap between rich and poor clubs gets larger, and it changes the dynamics of transition to and from the rich and poor clubs, eventually narrowing the gap between the poor and rich as the middle club vanishes. Analyzing the stochastic stability of middle‐income groups is thus a first step toward understanding higher‐order dynamics of narrowing or widening of the gap between rich and poor countries.     

The impact of the tertiarization process in Spanish economic growth from a regional perspective

The article focuses on the impact that the growth of the service sector has had on the economic growth of the Spanish regions. Thus, the study tries to define regional groupings in order to identify different modalities of regional growth. As a result of the cluster analysis, we propose the groupings and analyse the beta-convergence in per capita GDP and in terms of the degree of tertiarization in the Spanish regions. Taking these groups as our starting point, a data panel model with fixed effects is applied and the study concludes that mainly capital stock and capital productivity in market services explain to a great extent the growth in per capita GDP in the Spanish regions.     

THE SIGNIFICANCE OF BASE YEAR IN DEVELOPING FAILURE PREDICTION MODELS

Most failure prediction models developed over the past fifteen years have been based on firms' financial characteristics one year before they collapsed. This article reports the results of a study employing multiple discriminant analysis on a sample of fifty-three British companies which failed over the period 1960–1971. Models were developed on various financial ratios and an industry indicator for each of the five years, prior to failure, and the results in fact show that the model developed from data five years before failure performed at least as well as that derived one year prior to bankruptcy.     

From free oil to ‘freedom oil’: terrorism,war and US Geopolitics in the Persian Gulf

Oil has been a major driving force behind foreign interests, regional and domestic balance of power, and territorial conflicts in the Persian Gulf. As a result of the ‘9/11’ terrorist attacks debates on oil and the United States' security agenda have significantly shifted. If on one side, those opposing US military interventionism have argued that the ‘war on terror’ provided one more convenient cover for a renewed ‘imperialist oil grab’ in this region; on the other, links between oil and terrorism pointed at problems of governance in oil-producing countries. As the ‘war on terror’ became justified as a ‘war of liberation’ against oil-funded dictators, the US portrayed its foreign policy as shifting from ensuring free access to oil for the world market, to ensuring that oil is delivering ‘freedom’ to local populations. Although engaging the crucial issue of oil governance, there is yet little evidence given the number of war victims and potential vested interests that a US policy shift from ‘free oil’ to ‘freedom oil’ is genuine and viable.     

The Role of Accountants in Decision-Making in Lebanese Firms

The issue of accountants＇ role in decision-making has been the center of attention of lots of studies in the last decade but never did it get the adequate coverage in Lebanon. This paper studies to what extent accountants are involved in the managerial decision-making in Lebanon. Two hundred experienced accountants from all over the country were randomly selected for a questionnaire survey. This survey provides evidence as to what factors contribute to the variance of influence accountants have in managerial decision-making. The results from the questionnaires varied, but we conclude that accountants＇ involvement in new product development （NPD）, the skills that accountants have, their role in the financial analysis of the firm, and how much the finn they work for encourages them to advice on business decisions affect the degree of contribution an accountant has to decision-making. The findings of this research could be used as a reference to help in understanding the role of accounting in Lebanon by various finns and organizations.