The alternative Durbin-Watson test: An assessment of Durbin and Watson's choice of test statistic

This paper examines Durbin and Watson's (1950) choice of test statistic for their test of first- 0order autoregressive regression disturbances. Attention is focused on an alternative statistic, d'. Theoretical and empirical power properties of the d' test are compared with those of the Durbin-Watson test. The former is found to be locally best invariant while the latter is approximately locally best invariant. The d' test is also found to be more powerful than its counterpart against negative autocorrelation and for small values of the autocorrelation coefficient against positive autocorrelation. Selected bounds for significance points of d' are tabulated.     

Investment allocation and urbanization in socialist economic development: The case of Czechoslovakia of

This paper tests two hypotheses about economic ;fficiency of development strategies of socialist countries. The first is that they overinvest in industry and that increased investment in agriculture would increase the output growth rate. The second is that efforts to limit urbanization have enabled these countries to grow more rapidly by minimizing the need for urban-infrastructure investments. The hypotheses are tested by means of counterfactual simulations performed with an econometric model of Czechoslovakia. We find that growth would have been faster only in the long run, had more investment been directed to agriculture. Urbanization policies appeared only to control inflationary pressures.     

ECONOMIC GROWTH AND SOCIAL DEVELOPMENT: A STATISTICAL INVESTIGATION*

Some writers have emphasised the adverse environmental and social effects of economic growth, while others have claimed that countries with higher levels of social well-being also tend to enjoy higher levels of per capita output. The aim of this study is to see what statistical light can be thrown on these issues by collating and comparing seventeen different social indicators for twenty countries in two bench-mark years, 1951 and 1969. Two methods of analysing data are employed. First, all the countries are ranked for each indicator in turn for a particular year. Each country is then given a score ranging from 1 to 20 for each indicator, and the scores aggregated over the indicators to obtain an overall ranking score for every country. Secondly, the data are subjected to a principal components analysis to examine the correlation between the indicators. The first principal component is a potential candidate for use as a social index number. Changes in these social variables are then related to the rate of economic growth, and no evidence is found of a negative correlation between economic growth and social development. On the contrary, the results suggest a positive correlation between the two, although the strength of this relationship may be diminishing. It is not claimed that the results are in any sense the most preferred test of the form of the relationship between economic growth and social welfare, which must be a matter for subjective evaluation; rather they are seen as a contribution to the body of empirical evidence on this subject.     

CONVERTIBLE BOND VALUATION: AN EMPIRICAL TEST

This research applies the options pricing model to the valuation of convertible bonds. A numeric algorithm is used to obtain theoretical values for a sample of 103 convertible bond issues. When market prices are compared with model valuations, the means are not significantly different, and 90 percent of model predictions are within 10 percent of market values. As a further test, the sample is divided on the basis of whether the model prices are (1) greater or (2) less than market prices. Returns are compared over a subsequent three-year holding period. The results indicate that without risk adjustment, the returns for the subsample identified by the model as “undervalued” (model prices exceed market prices) are significantly greater than returns for the subsample identified by the model as “overvalued” (market prices exceed model prices).     

Sustainability of Tourism Development in Macao,China

To maximize the benefits to stakeholders in Macao, the sustainability of Macao tourism was examined by assessing the economic, socio‐cultural and environmental impacts of tourism, visitor satisfaction and the level of community involvement in local tourism planning from 2002 to 2009, through the use of primary and secondary data. The results revealed that tourism did bring both positive and negative impacts to the community. Visitor satisfaction was found to be moderate. Channels for community participation in local tourism development were also lacking. The paper suggests that for sustainable tourism development, Macao needs to diversify away from its casino industry, to speed up the construction of the public transport system and to keep monitoring the environmental conditions, the students' drop‐out and crime rate and the locals' quality of life. More importantly, a master plan for its tourism development integrating all the key stakeholders' interests is urgently required. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Using the Delphi method to assess the potential of Taiwan's hot springs tourism sector

The purpose of the present study is to identify the various factors that influence the competitiveness of the hot springs tourism sector. The research draws on the models of Ritchie and Crouch, Dwyer and Kim, and Enright and Newton, who concluded that destination competitiveness is determined by three major components: resources and attractors, destination strategies and environments. The investigation produced both qualitative and quantitative data using the Delphi technique. An expert panel reached consensus about priorities for the development of Taiwan's hot springs tourism sector and provided written justifications for their responses. This paper reports on the qualitative findings of the three‐round Delphi survey and provides a supply‐side perspective on Taiwan's hot springs tourism sector. An examination of the expert comments concluded that the Taiwanese are increasingly concerned with good health and longevity. This emerging characteristic offers new business opportunities for the providers of hot springs tourism experiences to extend their appeal into health protection and medical treatments. However, if they are to achieve sustainable development and ensure high‐quality visitor experiences, hot springs proprietors will need to work closely with local governments and communities to promote sustainable use of natural hot springs and to conduct routine inspections of spa premises. Overall, the future of the hot springs tourism sector appears to be promising. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley and Sons, Ltd.