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81.
Nan Li 《Review of Economic Dynamics》2011,14(4):686-704
This paper documents that, at the aggregate level, (i) real wages are positively correlated with output and, on average, lag output by about one quarter in emerging markets, while there are no systematic patterns in developed economies, and (ii) real wage volatility (relative to output volatility) is about twice as high in emerging markets compared with developed economies. We then present a small open economy model with productivity shocks and countercyclical interest rates. The model incorporates a working capital requirement and the Jaimovich and Rebelo (2009) preference that allows for flexible parameterization of the strength of income effects on labor supply. The model can account for the high volatility of wage and consumption relative to output and countercyclical trade balances that characterize emerging-market economies. During economic downturns, rising interest rates in emerging markets induce relatively large income effects on labor supply, so households would not reduce their labor input as much even though wages drop significantly. 相似文献
82.
Weifeng Hung Chaoshin Chiao Tung Liang Liao Sheng-Tang Huang 《International Review of Economics & Finance》2011,22(1):11-24
Prior studies document that the book-to-market (BM) effect is absent in the Taiwan stock market. Using Taiwanese data covering from 1991 to 2006, we show that, after controlling for the size effect and the Fama and French's (1993) risk factors, the BM effect only exists for those firms with low R&D intensity essentially because these stocks suffer less from investors’ underreaction to R&D investment. The BM effect arises primarily from fundamental reversals acting as a proxy for investors’ overreaction. 相似文献
83.
Hung-Chun Liu Shu-Mei Chiang Nick Ying-Pin Cheng 《International Review of Economics & Finance》2011,22(1):78-91
We employ four various GARCH-type models, incorporating the skewed generalized t (SGT) errors into those returns innovations exhibiting fat-tails, leptokurtosis and skewness to forecast both volatility and value-at-risk (VaR) for Standard & Poor's Depositary Receipts (SPDRs) from 2002 to 2008. Empirical results indicate that the asymmetric EGARCH model is the most preferable according to purely statistical loss functions. However, the mean mixed error criterion suggests that the EGARCH model facilitates option buyers for improving their trading position performance, while option sellers tend to favor the IGARCH/EGARCH model at shorter/longer trading horizon. For VaR calculations, although these GARCH-type models are likely to over-predict SPDRs' volatility, they are, nevertheless, capable of providing adequate VaR forecasts. Thus, a GARCH genre of model with SGT errors remains a useful technique for measuring and managing potential losses on SPDRs under a turbulent market scenario. 相似文献
84.
This study looks at the characteristics and determinants of booms and busts in housing prices for a sample of eighteen industrialised countries over the period 1980–2007. From an historical perspective, we find that recent housing booms have been amongst the longest in the past four decades. Estimates of a Multinomial Probit model suggest that domestic credit and interest rates have a significant influence on the probability of booms and busts occurring. Moreover, international liquidity plays a significant role for the occurrence of housing booms and—in conjunction with banking crises—for busts. We also find that the deregulation of financial markets has strongly magnified the impact of the domestic financial sector on the occurrence of booms. 相似文献
85.
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87.
依据《辞海》中科学的概念,结合体育科学的性质和特点,重新定义了体育科学的概念。指出了体育学院通用教材体育概论中体育科学体系分类的不合理之处,提出了新的体育科学体系分类。 相似文献
88.
寿险公司业务经营具有跨期均衡性、资金融通性、偿付能力充足性三大特性。受业务特性驱动,寿险公司盈余管理策略具有独特性,这些策略主要包括再保险交易、保险准备金提取、金融资产分类和计量。合理适度的盈余管理有利于维护寿险公司和保险市场的稳定发展。 相似文献
89.
We study the welfare properties of an economy where both monetary and fiscal policies follow simple rules, and where a subset of agents is liquidity constrained. The welfare benefits of optimizing the fiscal rule are far larger than those of optimizing the monetary rule. The optimized fiscal rule implements strong automatic stabilizers that primarily stabilize the income of liquidity-constrained agents, rather than output. Transfers targeted to liquidity-constrained agents are the preferred fiscal instrument. The optimized monetary rule exhibits super-inertia and a weak inflation response. Optimized simple rules perform as well as the optimal policy under the timeless perspective. 相似文献
90.
We examine inflation and uncertainty in the UK with a version of the Markov Switching model, which allows for changes in the variance as well as in the mean and persistence of a series. We find that the UK’s attempts at exchange rate pegs in the form of shadowing the deutschmark and entering the ERM were ineffective, and in the latter case counterproductive in lowering inflation uncertainty. The 1981 budget, however, greatly lowered uncertainty, and the adoption of a formal inflation target also had a palpable, negative impact on inflation uncertainty. As a suggestive exercise, we examine inflation uncertainty in the US, and find that, over 2005–2008, in the absence of an inflation target, uncertainty rose in the US, while uncertainty remained low in the UK over this period of rising commodity prices and financial turmoil. 相似文献