The Future of Managing Customers as Assets

SUMMARY

Most companies do a very poor job of determining the economic value of their customers. There are three primary reasons that this has been the case: (1) inadequacy of technology, (2) managements' internal focus on products (as opposed to customers), and (3) inadequacy of accounting systems. Each of these areas, however, has undergone rapid transformation in terms of their sophistication and managerial usefulness. As a result, it is manifest destiny that asset valuation and management will evolve to the evaluation of a company's most fundamental asset, its customers (i.e., customer lifetime value). Most managers have come to accept this inevitability. What managers fail to realize is just how radically an understanding of customer lifetime value will transform the business landscape. It will dramatically impact the breadth and type of data collected; the way managers view and segment customers; the types of experiences firms offer customers; the metrics executives provide to the financial markets; and the way companies structure and staff their organizations.     

A generalized method for valuing agricultural farms under uncertainty

The opacity of the farm market means that valuations are based primarily on expert estimates rather than on actual transaction prices. The valuation method based on the two cumulative distribution functions (VMTCDF), created by Ballestero (1971), improves the synthetic method based on estimating the market value of an asset by establishing a proportional relation between the asset and one external variable. However, in most cases the expert must consider multiple external variables. This paper proposes a definitive extension to k indexes with a methodology particularly applicable to the field of valuation of non-market goods or markets where little information is available as may be the case with the valuation of agricultural land. The contribution is illustrated with an empirical example.     

Growth and value hybrid valuation model based on mean reversion

This article proposes a novel valuation model, growth and value hybrid model, to estimate the stock price. This proposed model combines the essence of the asset-based approach, the income-based approach, and the principle of mean reversion to develop the theoretical closed-form formula consisting of three coefficients: value coefficient, value support coefficient and growth coefficient. Regression analysis is employed to fit market data to determine these coefficients. Moreover, this study proposes the double sorting method to build the quantile regression models of the formula to estimate the stock price at a specific quantile. The results show that the predictive capability of the hybrid valuation model is superior to the model without using value support coefficient, which supports the assumption that the PBR is not associated with the ROE when the ROE is less than a threshold. In different time periods of the stock market, no significant difference exists on the value support coefficient. However, the variations of the value coefficient and the growth coefficient are significant.     

城市森林固碳释氧功能及经济价值评估——以第三个“国家森林城市”长沙市为实证分析

主要介绍了城市森林生态系统固碳释氧功能及经济价值评估方法,并以中国第三个"国家森林城市"长沙市为实证分析,计算了长沙市城市森林生态系统固碳和释氧功能的经济价值分别约为27.12亿元/a和10.61亿元/a,固碳释氧总价值约为37.73亿元/a,最后做了进一步分析与对比。     

Farmers’ perceptions of biodiversity: Lessons from a discourse-based deliberative valuation study

In agricultural landscapes farmers have a large impact on biodiversity through the management decisions they apply to their land. Farmers’ perceptions of biodiversity and its different values influence their willingness to apply biodiversity friendly farming practices. The results of a discourse-based, deliberative biodiversity valuation are presented in this paper. Organic and conventional farmers’ perceptions of the different values of biodiversity were analyzed across three European countries. Focus group methodology was used to explore how farmers perceive biodiversity and how they assess its values.Our results suggest that farmers’ perceptions of biodiversity are strongly embedded in their everyday lives and linked to farming practices. Besides recognizing the importance of species and habitat diversity, farmers also acknowledge wider landscape processes and attach value to the complexity of ecological systems. Organic farmers tended to have a more complex and philosophical approach to biodiversity and they were relatively homogeneous in this aspect, while conventional farmers showed larger heterogeneity. Ethical and social values were important for all farmers. Economic value was more dominant in the conventional focus groups.The discourse based deliberative valuation method is worth applying in relation to biodiversity for two reasons. First, this method is able to reflect the heterogeneity of non-scientist participants and the context in which they are embedded, which both have a great impact on the results of the valuation. Second, deliberation upon the importance of biodiversity makes possible to understand the competing perceptions of biodiversity and to include different value aspects in the valuation process. The policy oriented consequence of the research can be drawn from the observation that farmers have a strong acknowledgement of ethical and social biodiversity values. This suggests that soft policy tools could also foster biodiversity sensitive farming methods, complementary to mainstream monetary incentives.     

IPO定价与公司内含价值——基于常山药业的案例研究

如何对IPO公司准确定价是学术界和实务界广泛争议的热点话题。IPO定价准确性的评价依赖于对公司内含价值的判断，选择不同的标准确定公司的内含价值会得出IP0定价过高或过低的不同结论。本文应用可比公司法对常山药业的内含价值进行估计，使用四种可比公司乘数计算的结果表明公司实际发行价格高于公司内含价值，这意味着公司的发行价格存在一定程度的高估现象。与同期证券分析师对常山药业发行价格预测的平均估价水平相比，结果发现多数证券分析师由于过度乐观而高估公司内含价值。本文研究结果表明可比公司法具有计算简单、可操作性强等特点，不仅有助于一级市场中不同投资者对IP0公司的内含价值做出合理的估计，而且可以为二级市场交易中小投资者形成正确的投资决策提供依据，减少超额投资损失。     

Productivity and technical change: the case of Taiwan

This paper analyses productivity growth in 16 of Taiwan's manufacturing industries during the period 1978–1992. The non-parametric Data Envelopment Analysis approach is used to compute Malmquist productivity indexes. These are decomposed into efficiency change and technical change. The latter is further decomposed into an output bias, an input bias and a magnitude component. In addition, the direction of input bias is identified. Empirical results indicate that the sector's TFP increased at a rate of 2.89% per annum, which could be ascribed to a technical progress (2.56%) and an efficiency improvement (0.33%).     

岷江上游森林生态系统服务条件价值评估

针对岷江上游森林生态系统服务现状,采用条件价值评估法(CVM),以支付卡形式设计了374份调查问卷,调查了岷江流域居民对上游森林生态系统服务的支付意愿(WTP)。结果表明:岷江流域60.80%的居民家庭对岷江上游森林生态系统服务存在支付意愿,平均支付意愿为每户每年44.00元。按照岷江流域现有家庭数量计算,岷江上游森林生态系统服务价值每年是5 507.48×104元。利用二元Logistic模型,对支付意愿与个人社会经济变量进行了较为详尽的分析,并对影响居民支付意愿的主要因素作了环境经济学解释。     

Mean reversion in annual earnings and its implications for security valuation

This article documents the long-horizon mean reverting character of annual earnings and tests the implications of such mean reversion for security valuation. First, both theory-based and nonparametric measures of earnings persistence decrease as the estimation order increases, revealing 40 percent less long-horizon persistence than expected under the commonly used random walk model. Second, the return responses to the earnings shocks are more closely related across firms to the higher-order measures of persistence that reflect significant long-horizon mean reversion. Third, the persistence measure derived from classical valuation theory outperforms the generic measure in explaining the return responses. Taken as a whole, these results provide evidence for significant mean reversion in the higher-order properties of earnings and for the stock market incorporating these properties in a manner consistent with classical valuation theory.     

Earnings management and firm valuation under asymmetric information

This paper seeks to provide an explanation for why corporate officers manage the disclosure of accounting information. We show that earnings management affects firm value when value-maximizing managers and investors are asymmetrically informed. In equilibrium, the strategic management of reported earnings influences investors' assessments of the market values of companies' shares.