中国区域经济趋同与差异的因素贡献分析

本文利用趋同核算分析框架和时变参数模型考察了各种因素对1978-2004年间我国区域经济趋同与差异的贡献.分析表明,引发我国区域经济差异增大的主要因素按其重要性的先后次序可排列为劳动力市场表现、物质资本投资、人力资本投资、中央财政支出;资本边际收益递减和技术扩散引发的趋同效应是促使我国区域经济差异缩小的主要因素;地方财政支出对我国区域经济趋同与差异基本上没有影响.这一结论有助于中央政府找准区域经济协调发展战略的着力点并科学制定出有效的政策措施.     

中国制造业全球价值链位置的行业异质性及收敛性测度

中国制造业通过嵌入全球价值链参与国际分工，全球价值链位置演化呈现收敛趋势。利用TiVA 数据库提供的数据，采用附加值贸易法对中国制造业全球价值链位置进行测度。结果发现，1995-2014年，中国制造业全球价值链位置演化经历了3个阶段（GVC1.0、GVC2.0、GVC3.0），在GVC1.0时期全球价值链位置不断下降，在GVC2.0时期全球价值链位置加速上升，在GVC3.0时期全球价值链位置稳步上升。构建全球价值链位置收敛计量检验模型，分别对中国制造业全球价值链位置的绝对σ收敛、绝对β收敛和条件β收敛进行检验。结果表明：中国制造业全球价值链位置演化存在绝对σ收敛、绝对β收敛和条件β收敛，但是中高技术和高技术制造业行业全球价值链位置演化存在绝对β发散和条件β收敛。研究结论可为促进我国制造业不同行业迈向全球价值链更高位置提供新证据。     

Revisiting the convergence hypothesis for tourism markets: Evidence from Turkey using the pairwise approach

This paper empirically revisits the tourism markets convergence hypothesis (Narayan, 2006) for the case of Turkey by employing the newly developed pairwise approach to the analysis of stochastic convergence ( [Pesaran, 2007] and [Pesaran et?al., 2009]). This new approach allows for unit root tests to be conducted on all possible pairs of tourist arrival differentials across Turkey’s 20 major tourist source markets, thus avoiding the need to choose a base source market or total tourist arrivals figure as the benchmark. Using monthly data over the period January 1996 to December 2009, the main finding is that despite considerable ‘co-movement’ of international tourist arrivals in Turkey, there is no evidence of long-run ‘convergence’ among Turkey’s major tourism markets. Cluster-based club convergence analyses alongside bivariate pairwise estimations confirm the lack of convergence and highlight specific tourist source markets with considerable untapped potential. These findings have profound policy implications for Turkey’s inbound tourism planning and promotion.     

Mobile service innovation: A European failure

The continuing absence of innovation in Europe’s mobile services industry is identified and characterised here, with such examples as mobile Internet and mobile music. Innovation failure is a critical factor leading to a lack of high-income jobs, network effects, and price reductions for data services. Most mobile service innovations have been made in Japan in ‘clubs of operators’ with their suppliers. Apple USA followed the same model of control with its iPhone. Conversely, a lack of this critical type of competition characterises European operators. Revenues per citizen are in some countries similar to those in Japan, but with handsets with less functions. Europe and all other regions face the challenge of competing with Japanese and US innovators. The lessons to be learned are (1) becoming aware of the situation, (2) allocating spectrum that covers a sufficient population size to allow technological competition, and (3) developing a strong customer orientation.     

Convergence with IFRS in an expanding Europe: progress and obstacles identified by large accounting firms’ survey

The International Accounting Standards Board (IASB) acquired greater legitimacy and stature when the European Union (EU) decided to require all listed companies to prepare consolidated accounts based on International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) beginning in 2005. This study examines the progress and perceived impediments to convergence in 17 European countries directly affected by the EU's decision. These include: (1) the 10 new EU member countries, (2) EU candidate countries, (3) European Economic Area (EEA) countries, and (4) Switzerland. We utilize data collected by the six largest international accounting firms during their 2002 convergence survey. Additionally, we analyze subsequent events and studies.While all surveyed countries will either require or effectively allow listed companies to prepare consolidated financial statements in accordance with IFRS by 2005, few are expected to require IFRS for non-listed companies. This suggests the development of a “two-standard” system. The two most significant impediments to convergence identified by the survey appear to be the complicated nature of particular IFRS (including financial instruments) and the tax-orientation of many national accounting systems. Other barriers to convergence include underdeveloped national capital markets, insufficient guidance on first-time application of IFRS, and limited experience with certain types of transactions (e.g. pensions).     

一个考虑基差收敛性的最适保值比率模型——上期所铜期货卖空保值实证分析

本文针对商品期货市场在基差持续朝一个方向变动的情况下卖空保值风险大、成本高的重大现实问题，基于商品期货的持有成本理论，推导出具有普遍实用价值的考虑基差收敛性的动态最适保值比率模型。然后，综合应用时间序列分析和截面分析方法，在现货价格与到期期间恒定的利率调整基差间构建BV-GARCH模型，并利用BEKK形式的BV-GARCH模型，以上海期货交易所铜期货为实证对象，检验和比较了考虑与未考虑基差收敛性的最适保值比率模型的保值绩效，得出了有意义的具体结论。     

The size distribution of Chinese cities

This paper uses urban data to investigate two important issues regarding city sizes in China, the relative growth of cities and the nature of the city size distribution. The manner in which cities of different sizes grow relative to each other is examined and, contrary to the common empirical finding that the relative size and rank of cities remains stable over time, it is found that the Economic Reforms and the One Child Policy since 1979 have delivered significant structural change in the Chinese urban system. The city size distribution remains stable before the reforms but exhibits a convergent growth pattern in the post-reform period. The theoretical literature on city sizes highlights a link between log normal and Pareto distributions for city sizes prompting the employment of Pearson goodness-of-fit tests to examine directly which theoretical distribution provides the best approximation to the empirical city size distribution. Contrary to the evidence for other countries, a log normal rather than Pareto specification turns out to be the preferred distribution.     

地区间生产率差异与收敛——基于中国各产业的分析

本文主要分析了中国各产业的省际间劳动生产率差异与收敛问题.实证结果表明,改革开放以来,中国各产业地区间劳动生产率存在明显的差异.从20世纪90年代开始,产业间生产率差异随时间呈现出扩大趋势.各产业不存在地区间劳动生产率的绝对收敛,却存在条件收敛,而且收敛的速度较快.实证也发现,各产业地区间的劳动生产率差异是地区间人均收入差异的直接原因,各产业地区间生产率差异和经济增长的快慢统计上并没有必然的联系.     

中国省域经济增长趋同的空间计量经济分析

本文在巴罗与萨拉一伊一马丁新古典增长模型的基础上，提出了区域经济增长口趋同的空间计量经济分析模型框架，采用1978～2002年的截面数据，分析了空间效应和口趋同效应及其成因。中国省域经济经过改革开放25年的发展，在地理上的集聚性明显增强的同时，空间联系也在不断密切，考虑空间自相关的空间误差趋同口模型是目前研究中国省域经济增长截面趋同比较合适的模型，趋同速度约为2％，这与目前跨国截面研究的结果基本一致。地理因素和空间效应一起对经济增长和收入差距产生重要影响。     

Growth, distance to frontier and composition of human capital

We examine the contribution of human capital to economy-wide technological improvements through the two channels of innovation and imitation. We develop a theoretical model showing that skilled labor has a higher growth-enhancing effect closer to the technological frontier under the reasonable assumption that innovation is a relatively more skill-intensive activity than imitation. Also, we provide evidence in favor of this prediction using a panel dataset covering 19 OECD countries between 1960 and 2000 and explain why previous empirical research had found no positive relationship between initial schooling level and subsequent growth in rich countries.