Sensitivity analysis of job-training effects on reemployment for Korean women

The main difficulty in treatment effect analysis with matching is accounting for unobserved differences (i.e., selection problem) between the treatment and control groups, because matching assumes no such differences. The traditional way to tackle the difficulty has been “control function” approaches with selection correction terms. This paper examines relatively new approaches: sensitivity analyses—sensitivity to unobservables—in Rosenbaum (Biometrika 74:13–26, 1987), Gastwirth et al. (Biometrika 85:907–920, 1998) and Lee (J Appl Econ 19:323–337, 2004). These sensitivity analyses are applied to the data used in Lee and Lee (J Appl Econ 20:549–562, 2005) to see how the assumption of no unobserved difference in matching affects the findings in Lee and Lee, to compare how the different sensitivity analyses perform, and to relate the “sensitivity parameters” in the different sensitivity analyses to one another. We find (i) the conclusions in Lee and Lee are weakened in the sense that only the “strong” ones survive, (ii) the sensitivity analysis in Rosenbaum (Biometrika 74:13–26, 1987) is too conservative (and inferior to Gastwirth et al.’s), and (iii) Gastwirth et al.’s and Lee’s approaches agree on some findings to be insensitive, but the two approaches also disagree on some other findings. The authors are grateful to the Editor and anonymous reviewers for their constructive and helpful comments.     

The determinants of cash flow sensitivity of cash: The family ownership effect

This paper investigates firms’ cash flow sensitivity of cash (CFSC) in a European setting. We examine the differing effects of financial constraints and income and substitution effects on CFSC in the context of the family ownership structure. When examining the shareholders’ behavior within the ownership structure of family firms, we find a positive CFSC level for our full sample. Our results show a significant connection between the family ownership structure and CFSC’s determinant factors: the higher (lower) sensitivity for the firms with more (less) financial constraints suggests that family firms are financially less constrained than non-family firms. Additionally, contrary to prior literature, we find income and substitution effects have a nonnegative effect on CFCS. We explain this finding from a productivity shocks perspective related to the financial crisis, which occurs during our analysis period.     

董事长-总经理任职经验异质性与技术敏感性对企业技术并购规模的影响

基于高阶理论，以主并企业为A股上市公司的321个技术并购事件为研究对象，通过回归分析探究了董事长和总经理任职经验对技术并购决策的影响机理。研究发现，董事长-总经理任职经验异质性促进企业进行更大交易规模的技术并购。同时，总经理技术敏感性能够强化董事长-总经理任职经验异质性对技术并购规模的正向影响。此外，董事长-总经理合作默契能够进一步强化总经理技术敏感性对董事长-总经理任职经验异质性与技术并购规模的正向调节效应。研究结论在技术并购决策情境下拓展了高阶理论，并可为企业技术并购决策机制优化提供参考。     

Estimating the benefits of effectively and proactively maintaining infrastructure with the innovative Smart Infrastructure sensor system

An innovative sensor system, designated ‘Smart Infrastructure,’ is being developed jointly by Cambridge University in the United Kingdom and Massachusetts Institute of Technology in the United States. This system provides real-time wireless information about the state of critical infrastructure. The Smart Infrastructure sensors are designed to monitor infrastructure, such as water pipelines, as well as to increase their capabilities for purposes of efficient maintenance. This paper presents a forecasting model that assesses the possible impacts of Smart Infrastructure technology currently being applied to the British water pipe market. In doing so, we identify key benefits of proactively managing infrastructure with such new technology. A probabilistic cost benefit analysis, which takes into account future uncertainty, is conducted using a Monte Carlo simulation. Our findings suggest that if the Smart Infrastructure sensor system is applied to water pipelines in the British market, there are likely to be significant economic benefits. They could be realised by avoiding disruption and damage costs (including water loss) due to water pipe bursts, as well as by reducing annual operating and maintenance costs. The mean cumulative net present value of savings derived from the case scenario for the period through year 2056 was estimated at US$ 23.7 billion.     

How does improved forecasting benefit detection? An application to biosurveillance

While many methods have been proposed for detecting disease outbreaks from pre-diagnostic data, their performance is usually not well understood. We argue that most existing temporal detection methods for biosurveillance can be characterized as a forecasting component coupled with a monitoring/detection component.In this paper, we describe the effect of forecast accuracy on detection performance. Quantifying this effect allows one to measure the benefits of improved forecasting and determine when it is worth improving a forecast method’s precision at the cost of robustness or simplicity. We quantify the effect of forecast accuracy on detection metrics under different scenarios and investigate the effect when standard assumptions are violated. We illustrate our results by examining performance on authentic biosurveillance data.     

Sexual harassment and proactive customer service performance: The roles of job engagement and sensitivity to interpersonal mistreatment

This study examines the relationship between sexual harassment (SH) and proactive customer service performance (PCSP) by focusing on the mediating role of job engagement and the moderating role of sensitivity to interpersonal mistreatment. Drawing on the conservation of resources theory, we propose that SH reduces job engagement and PCSP, and that individuals who are highly sensitive to interpersonal mistreatment are more vulnerable to SH. Using time-lagged data collected from 209 female employees of 18 hotels in China, we find that: (1) SH is negatively related to PCSP; (2) SH negatively affects PCSP via job engagement; and (3) sensitivity to interpersonal mistreatment strengthens the direct effect of SH on job engagement and its indirect effect on PCSP via job engagement.     

大同煤矿区生态脆弱性评价

生态脆弱性评价是区域生态综合评价的重要依据。矿区生态环境脆弱性研究不仅对矿区的资源及环境有着重要作用,还指导了资源的合理利用,为矿区的可持续发展提供了意见。本文在生态脆弱性研究方法上,选择生态敏感性-生态恢复力-生态压力度模型,通过建立基于目标的第三个层次准则的判断矩阵,并加权汇总得出各个因素的重要性程度,依此方法,再建立基于目标的第二个层次准则的判断矩阵,运用生态脆弱性指数的计算方法,得出大同煤矿区的生态脆弱性指数,评价大同煤矿区的脆弱性。评价结果显示,大同矿区生态脆弱综合指数为0.3506,呈中度脆弱性。根据生态脆弱性结果为后续的生态环境恢复重建工作、制定综合治理策略及矿区的可持续发展规划进行指导。     

人民币实际汇率波动对中国贸易影响的实证分析

本文利用1994-2008年的季度时间序列数据,在VAR模型的基础上,运用单位根检验、协整分析、格兰杰因果检验和方差分解等技术分析人民币实际汇率对中国进出口贸易的影响。分析结果表明,人民币实际汇率变动是影响中国进出口贸易的重要因素,马歇尔-勒纳条件在中国是成立的。从短期来看,人民币实际汇率变动是影响出口贸易的主要因素;然而从长期来看,国外需求的变动是影响出口贸易变动的主要因素。     

基于生态敏感性评价的城市非建设用地规划研究——以龙海市九龙江地区为例

城市非建设用地在城市的发展中有着重要的作用.然而,随着我国城镇化进程的不断加快,城市建设用地不断向外无序扩张和蔓延,侵占了相当一部分数量的城市非建设用地.因此,需要进行城市非建设用地的规划研究来达到对其保护和发展的目的.生态敏感性评价作为应用广泛的技术方法,能够为城市非建设用地规划提供科学有效的依据.本文以龙海市九龙江...     

通货膨胀对武广高铁客流的影响

武广高铁作为世界上一次建成里程最长、运营速度最快的高速铁路,伴随着客流的增长已经多次调整了列车运行图。但是,期间中国经济在2010年第四季度开始出现明显的通货膨胀,人们对接下来一年的预期通货膨胀也在加重。武广高铁是否会出现列车虚糜,高铁客流是否会因通胀下降,成为人们担心的问题之一。本研究首先分析了通体货膨胀引起的财富和社会福利在穷人和富人之间的重新分配的问题,接下来由此展开,从预期通胀、票价形成机制和管理权限、服务的目标客户群、收入水平的增长幅度、国家宏观调控等多角度展开敏感性分析,结果表明,通货膨胀对武广高铁的客流虽有影响,但影响不大。