A heuristic analysis of highly fractionated 2n factorial experiments

Fractional factorial experiments are very useful in identifying active factors and the conventional method of analysis may not always detect these active factors. Box and Meyer (1993) provided a Bayesian method to compute the posterior probability that a factor is active. Their method does not indicate whether main effects or interactions are active. Following their approach in a non-Bayesian way, we will present a heuristic analysis which determines the active main effects and small order interactions in any 2ⁿ fractional factorial design. It may be noted that the method given by Box and Meyer has greater flexibility and wider applicability over the method given in this paper; however, our method is a simpler alternative for 2ⁿ experiments that determines active main effects and small order interactions. No SimplePara     

Diversification for general copula dependence

We generalize the extreme value analysis for Archimedean copulas (see Alink , Löwe and Wüthrich , 2003) to the non-Archimedean case: Assume we have d ≥2 exchangeable and continuously distributed risks X ₁,…, X _d . Under appropriate assumptions there is a constant q _d such that, for all large u , we have . The constant q _d describes the asymptotic dependence structure. Typically, q _d will depend on more aspects of this dependence structure than the well-known tail dependence coefficient.     

Measuring Core Inflation in South Africa

Measures of core inflation convey critical information about an economy. They have a direct effect on the policymaking process, particularly in inflation‐targeting countries, and are utilised in forecasting and modelling exercises. In South Africa, the price indices on which inflation is based have been subject to important structural breaks following changes to the underlying basket of goods and the methodology for constructing price indices. This paper seeks to identify a consistent measure of core inflation for South Africa using trimmed means estimates, measures that exclude changes in food and energy prices, dynamic factor models, and wavelet decompositions. After considering the forecasting ability of these measures, which provide an indication of expected second‐round inflationary effects, traditional in‐sample criteria were used for further comparative purposes. The results suggest that wavelet decompositions provide a useful measure of this critical variable.     

Strategies and language trends in learning success and failure of negotiation

In negotiation by electronic means, language is an important deal-making tool which helps realize negotiation strategies. Negotiators may use language to request information, exchange offers, persuade, threaten, as well as reach a compromise or find prospective partners. All this is recorded in texts exchanged by negotiators. We explore the language signals of strategies—argumentation, persuasion, negation, proposition. Leech and Svartvik’s approach to language in communication gives our study the necessary systematic background. It combines pragmatics, the communicative grammar and the meaning of English verbs. Language signals become features in the task of classifying those texts. We employ Statistical Natural Language Processing and Machine Learning techniques to find general trends that negotiation texts exhibit. Our hypothesis is that language signals help predict negotiation outcomes. We run experiments on the Inspire data. The electronic negotiation support system Inspire was gathering data for several years. The data include text messages which negotiators may exchange while trading offers. We conduct a series of Machine Learning experiments to predict the negotiation outcome from the texts associated with first halves of negotiations. We compare the results with the classification of complete negotiations. We conclude the paper with an analysis of the results and a list of suggestions for future work.     

Customer satisfaction and consumer expenditure in selected European countries

The relationship between customer satisfaction and company performance has been extensively researched at both the consumer and firm levels. However, little is known about the impact of customer satisfaction at the economy-wide level, especially in Europe. This study aims to link customer satisfaction to personal consumption expenditure using panel data collected from 1999 to 2011 and covering nine European countries. Our findings suggest a significant relationship between customer satisfaction and consumer expenditure in these countries. In addition, economic structure, culture, political economy and socio-economic factors have been examined to understand the impact of cross-country differences on this relationship. The results reflect the importance of satisfied consumers on the economy as a whole; thus, efforts at boosting customer satisfaction should become a national agenda.     

Book reviews

Louviere, Jordan. 1988. Analyzing decision making: Metric conjoint measurement. Newbury Park, CA: Sage. ISBN 080397576. 95 pp. Paper $6.95.

DiGiulio, Robert C. 1989. Beyond widowhood—from bereavement to emergence and hope. New York: The Free Press. ISBN 0–02–907882–2. 240 pp. Cloth, $19.95

Ewert, Alan W. 1989. Outdoor adventure pursuits: Foundations, models, and theories. Worthington, Ohio: Publishing Horizons, Inc. ISBN 0–942280–50–4. 234 pp. Hardcover, $20.00.     

The relative importance of project success dimensions

Traditionally, the success of a project is assessed using internal measures such as technical and operational goals, and meeting schedule and budget. More recently, it has been recognized that several other measures should be used to define project success. These measures reflect external effectiveness: the project's impact on its customers, and on the developing organization itself.
In our study of 110 defense projects performed by Israeli industry, we used a multidimensional approach to measure the success of defense projects. Based on previous studies, we defined four dimensions of success: meeting design goals ; benefits to the customer ; benefits to the developing organization ; and benefits to the defense and national infrastructure . For each project, we asked three different stakeholders (the customer, the developing organization, and the coordinating office within the Ministry of Defense) for their views on the relative importance of these dimensions of success. Analysis of the data revealed that the dimension benefits to the customer is by far the most important success dimension. The second in importance is meeting design goals . The other two dimensions are relatively unimportant.