广东新型专业镇创新驱动发展战略量化指标构建及分析

创新驱动是推动经济结构战略性调整和产业转型升级的核心战略。从创新链视角出发,构建广东新型专业镇创新驱动发展战略量化指标体系,通过视觉化效果和地理分析功能将经济现象和发生事件图像化,对广东各地市新型专业镇创新驱动发展实施情况及效果进行实证评价,并提出了加快广东新型专业镇创新驱动发展的具体路径。     

一种基于欧式范数的第三方物流服务商评价方法

随着市场竞争的加剧,越来越多的企业开始关注物流成本的控制。而通过与第三方物流合作能够帮助企业提高物流效率和降低物流成本。因此,选择一个合适的第三方物流服务商对企业具有极为重要的影响。文中提出了一个基于欧式范数的第三方物流服务商评价方法,运用该方法能使企业更为方便快捷地对候选物流服务商进行评价,以帮助企业寻找到合适的合作伙伴。     

Using newspapers for tracking the business cycle: a comparative study for Germany and Switzerland

The use of news-based data for tracking the real economy has gained popularity recently as newspapers archives have become accessible and the need for timely information has soared. In this article, on the basis of keyword searches in newspaper articles we construct several versions of the so-called Recession-word Index (RWI) for Germany and Switzerland and exploit its use for forecasting. Our main findings are the following. First, we show that augmenting benchmark autoregressive models with the RWI leads to improvement in accuracy of one-step-ahead forecasts of GDP growth compared with those obtained by benchmark models. Second, the accuracy of out-of-sample forecasts obtained with models augmented with the RWI is comparable to that of models augmented with established economic indicators, such as the Ifo Business Climate Index and the ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment for Germany, and the KOF Economic Barometer and the Purchasing Managers Index in manufacturing for Switzerland. Our results are robust to changes in estimation/forecast samples, the use of rolling versus expanding estimation windows and the inclusion of a web-based recession indicator from Google Trends. As our indices are timely and simple to construct, they could be replicated in countries or regions where no reliable economic indicators exist or their provision is very costly.     

Innovation and industrial renewal in Sweden, 1970–2007

This study explores the question of whether the Swedish innovation output of the 1970s and 1980s (and the following decades) indicates structural lock-in or renewal. It is motivated by inconsistent explanations in the current literature about the relation between the economic slowdown and subsequent industrial renewal, as well as a lack of research focusing, in this context, on the primary driver of economic growth and structural change: innovation. By observing the number and type of innovations as they hit the market, the data in this paper tell a real time story about micro level innovation activity during the time that the economic crisis unfolds. The analysis considers Swedish innovation output between 1970 and 2007, characterising the number of significant innovations, their novelty, and their origin (including size of firm and industry sector). Three central findings emerge, defined by both the time period and the character of innovations. First, the magnitude of innovation activity peaks in the late 1970s to early 1980s. Second, starting in the late 1970s, small firms begin to outperform large firms in terms of both innovation quantity and quality (i.e. world market novelties). Third, the 1980s saw a distinct shift in the industrial origin of innovations, with software and telecom becoming the leaders in innovation output. The findings suggest that the observed industrial renewal is more nuanced than what has emerged from previous research.     

中国股市资金流向优化研究——基于量化指标

在传统资金流向统计方法的基础上引入趋势移动平均价格指标,优点在于考虑到不参与交易的股票对未来股票价格及资金流量的影响,可以弥补传统股票资金流向统计方法存在的缺陷。选取上证50及创业板成分股为研究对象进行验证,实证结果较好地证明了优化资金流向统计方法具有科学性和合理性。     

Publishing performance of Spanish academics: 1970—2004

This work complements some of the results appearing in the article “Publishing Performance in Economics: Spanish Rankings” by Dolado et al. (Span Econ Rev 5: 80–103, 2003) Specifically we focus on the robustness of the results regardless of the time span considered, the effect of the choice of a particular database on the final results, and the effects on changes in the unit of institutional measure (departments vs. institutions as a whole). Differences are significant when we expand the time period considered. There are also significant but small differences if we combine datasets to derive the rankings. Finally, department rankings offer a more precise picture of the situation of the Spanish academics, although results do not differ substantially from those obtained when overall institutions are considered.     

Economic consequences of intifada

In 2003 the World Bank (WB) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) published estimates of macro-economic indicators for 2002 of the economy of Palestine. The WB used a micro-founded recursive dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model, calibrated on the 1998 Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) of Palestine, to which shocks were applied, whereas the IMF based its estimates on a macro-founded income-expenditure model relying on more recent data. It turned out that there were substantial differences: the estimate by the WB of the real gross national income (at 1998 prices) was 25% less than the corresponding figure calculated by the IMF. This huge difference is not only relevant for a full understanding of the economic consequences of the intifada, but also for the size of the international community intervention. In this paper we propose our own evaluation with the help of a static CGE model, based on the 1998 SAM and the so-called intifada shock derived from data of the WB that we constructed for the analysis of some forms of emergency assistance in a previous article. It turns out that our estimates, based on an entirely different methodology, are remarkably close to those of the IMF.     

A useful tool for forecasting the Euro-area business cycle phases

Based on a novel extension of existing multivariate Markov-switching models, we provide the reader with a useful tool for analyzing current business conditions and making predictions about the future state of the Euro-area economy in real time. Apart from the Industrial Production Index, we find that the European Commission Industrial Confidence Indicator, which is issued with no delay, is very useful for constructing the real-time predictions.     

Nutrition and GNP: A comparison of problems in Thailand and the Philippines

The relationship between GNP and nutritional status between countries shows a high correlation. This study of two countries with the same GNP (Thailand and Philippines) investigated their use of equal resources and the impact on nutritional status. Malnutrition is more prevalent in the Philippines than Thailand despite an extensive national nutrition programme in the Philippines, better medical and educational services and safer water supplies. The most important underlying economic factor is not income distribution but rather the cost of living, particularly for basic needs. Finally, it is concluded that although GNP is closely related to nutritional status between countries, the longitudinal correlations within a country are much weaker.     

可持续发展评价指标体系研究现状与展望

比较了国内外有较大影响的可持续发展评价指标体系的研究方法、基本框架和指标的构成,分析了各指标体系存在的主要问题,在此基础上从指标设置、评价目的、信息统计、体系建设和评价形态5个方面探讨了可持续发展评价指标体系的研究方向。