El Niño,La Niña,and world coffee price dynamics

Coffee is produced in equatorial and subequatorial regions of the world, which are also most affected by El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). ENSO events have a tendency to amplify weather conditions such as droughts or excess precipitation in the affected regions, resulting in production shortage or excess supply, subsequently impacting agricultural commodity prices. In this research we assess effects of ENSO events on world coffee price dynamics using the monthly data between March 1989 and December 2010. We employ smooth transition autoregression framework to examine nonlinear dynamics of ENSO and coffee prices, and illustrate the results of this research using generalized impulse‐response functions. We find that ENSO events indeed have short‐term impacts on coffee prices. The research findings are of interest to coffee producers and intermediaries in the coffee markets as well as researchers in the fields of environmental and development economics.     

The role of institutional investors in propagating the crisis of 2007–2008

Using novel data on investors' bond portfolios, we study the contagion of the crisis from securitized bonds to corporate bonds. When securitized bonds became “toxic” in August 2007, mutual funds retained the now illiquid securitized bonds and sold corporate bonds. Funds with negative flows or high liquidity needs liquidated more than others. Yield spreads increased more for corporate bonds whose pre-crisis bondholders were more heavily exposed to securitized bonds, compared to same-issuer bonds held by unexposed investors. The findings suggest that liquidity-constrained investors with exposure to securitized bonds played a role in propagating the crisis from securitized to corporate bonds.     

On the relationship between concentration of prospect theory/mental accounting investors,cointegration, and momentum

We examine the role of cointegration between stock prices and their estimated fundamental values in return momentum. We find that the positive relationship between capital gains overhang and future stock returns in Grinblatt and Han (2005) is significantly stronger among the “non-cointegrated” group of stocks as compared with the “cointegrated” group of stocks. Further, for the cointegrated stocks, the slower the speed of adjustment to the cointegrating equilibrium, the greater (smaller) is the future return of stocks with unrealized capital gains (losses). These findings are robust to various firm characteristics including firm size, book-to-market ratio, past returns, idiosyncratic volatility, dispersion in analysts’ earnings forecasts, turnover, individual investor ownership, and industry returns.     

Financial literacy,information flows,and caste affiliation: Empirical evidence from India

This paper empirically investigates the relevance of social interaction and caste affiliation for individual awareness of financial instruments and investment behavior of households in India. The results of our empirical analysis, which is based on a large scale survey on saving patterns of Indians, suggest a positive relationship between financial literacy and social interaction. However, especially backward caste people living in regions with a large fraction of backward castes have a lower probability of being aware of various financial instruments. In contrast, we find only weak empirical evidence for a direct effect of caste affiliation and social interaction on investment behavior.     

我国CO2排放、能源消耗、经济增长和外贸依存度之间的关系——基于ARDL模型的实证研究

本文利用我国1971—2008年的样本数据,运用自回归分布滞后模型（ARDL）对我国的二氧化碳排放、能源消费、人均国民总收入、人均国民总收入的平方和外贸依存度之间的动态关系进行了计量研究。结果表明它们之间存在长期的均衡关系。格兰杰因果检验表明,能源消费对二氧化碳排放同时存在长期和短期的因果关系。ARDL估计结果表明,人均能源消费量对二氧化碳排放量解释力度最大,其次是人均国民总收入和对外贸易,并且推导出了一个持续增长的二氧化碳排放模型,同时给出一些政策建议。     

浅析金融危机下我国出口企业对信用证欺诈的防范

金融危机下进口商的信用和支付能力普遍下降,信用证对出口商收汇安全的优越性凸显出来。但任何一种结算方式都不能完全防止欺诈的发生。如何防范信用证欺诈,充分发挥信用证的优越性已成为众多出口企业和银行关注的话题。本文介绍了我国出口贸易中常见的信用证欺诈方式,提出了一些防范信用证欺诈的有效措施。     

我国C2C电子商务模式研究——基于淘宝模式的分析

近几年,C2C电子商务在我国发展迅速。基于对淘宝模式的研究,分析了我国C2C电子商务模式的不足,并提出了解决方法。     

我国省际工业企业科技投入有效性比较研究——来自30个省（市）的数据

科技投入在推动科技进步方面发挥着重要作用。在将科技投入划分为人力投入和财力投入的基础上,建立系统的评价指标体系,运用C2GS2-ISS模型对我国30个省（市）工业企业科技投入的有效性进行了比较分析,绘出了不同地区的工业企业科技投入有效性的雁阵形态图。     

Inflation adjustment in the open economy: an I(2) analysis of UK prices

This paper estimates a cointegrated vector autoregressive (VAR) model for UK data on consumer prices, unit labour costs, import prices and real consumption growth. The estimated VAR indicates that the nominal variables are characterised by I(2) trends, and that a linear combination of these processes cointegrate to I(1). This supports an analysis in which I(1) and I(2) restrictions are imposed. A key finding is that an increase in real import prices reduces productivity adjusted real wages, such that the change in domestic inflation is moderated. This may explain why the depreciation of sterling in 1992 left inflation unchanged.