Information Uncertainty and Expected Returns

This study examines the role of information uncertainty (IU) in predicting cross-sectional stock returns. We define IU in terms of “value ambiguity,” or the precision with which firm value can be estimated by knowledgeable investors at reasonable cost. Using several different proxies for IU, we show that (1) on average, high-IU firms earn lower future returns (the “mean” effect), and (2) price and earnings momentum effects are much stronger among high-IU firms (the “interaction” effect). These findings are consistent with analytical models in which high IU exacerbates investor overconfidence and limits rational arbitrage.This revised version was published online in August 2005 with a corrected cover date.     

Capital investment and momentum strategies

The main purpose of this paper is to investigate whether capital investment can affect stock price momentum. We provide empirical evidence that momentum strategies tend to be more profitable for stocks with large capital investment or investment changes. We present a simple explanation for our empirical results and show that our finding is consistent with the behavioral finance theory that characterizes investors?? increased psychological bias and the more limited arbitrage opportunity when the estimation of firm value becomes more difficult or less accurate.     

A re-examination of China’s share issue privatization

Previous studies show that in contrast to evidence that share issue privatization (SIP) in most other countries have improved firm profitability, China’s SIP of the 1990s had no such effect. We argue that the main reason for the failure of China’s SIP is likely to have been the weak institutional environment in place at that time. We examine China’s SIP in a more recent period in which the institutional environment was greatly improved. Using a matching sample method, we find that SIP firms continued to experience negative post-SIP profitability changes in our sample period. However, their performance decline was significantly less than that of their matched non-SIP SOEs. We also find that the introduction of the independent director rule helped to improve firm performance. Our results reconcile the findings of the SIP effect in China with international evidence and illustrate the importance of a developed capital market to ensuring the success of privatization schemes.     

Insider Ownership,Subsidiary Cash Holdings,and Economic Consequences: Evidence from Listed Chinese Companies

ABSTRACT

Using a large sample of listed Chinese companies, we investigate how the equity ownership of business group insiders affects subsidiary cash holdings. We find that ownership by the largest shareholders and senior managers in the listed parent firm is negatively related to its subsidiaries’ cash holdings, whereas there is a positive relationship with minority equity in subsidiaries. We also find that the market places a more significant value discount on listed firms whose cash holdings are more located in the affiliated subsidiaries. Our evidence demonstrates how cash policy inside business groups is influenced by insider ownership, and it reveals to what extent cash allocated in subsidiaries may suffer from losses in efficiency.     

Stock performance and the mispricing of accruals

I investigate the relationship between contemporaneous stock-price performance and the persistence of accrued earnings, and its impact on the accrual anomaly. I find that, in a fiscal year, accrued earnings for stocks that have performed poorly are less persistent in predicting future earnings than accrued earnings for stocks that have performed moderately. I further find that a hedge-strategy based on accruals earns greater abnormal returns following bad-news years. The results are consistent with conservative accounting causing accrued earnings to be even less persistent in bad-news years and investors failing to efficiently price this differential in persistence.     

Profitability analysis of Chinese listed firms: 1992–2004

This research collects and analyses the profitability data of Chinese listed companies from 1992 to 2004. Results show that, on average, the profitability of Chinese listed companies has declined over the period. Post-IPO earnings also exhibit a downward trend. A further analysis reveals that changes in listed firms’ profitability ratio follow a strong mean reversion pattern. Translated and revised from Zhongguo Kuaiji Pinglun 中国会计评论 (China Accounting Review), 2007, 5(2): 165–180     

Should earnings thresholds be used as delisting criteria in stock market?

In Chinese stock market, firms reporting two consecutive annual losses are subject to special treatment (ST), with further losses causing the firms’ stocks to be suspended from trading or to be delisted. We argue that these earnings-based delisting requirements are misconstrued. Such policies drive financially healthy firms out of stock market, and induce listed firms to engage in rampant earnings manipulation in order to avoid delisting. The results carry important public policy implications for securities market regulation.     

Trade Credit,Future Earnings,and Stock Returns: A Self-Dealing Perspective

Chinese listed firms are characterized by a great magnitude of long-duration accounts receivable from controlling shareholders and their affiliates, and they often do not make bad debt allowances. On many occasions, these receivables are never collected. We find that firms with a great magnitude of accounts receivable demonstrate a low level of future profitability and low stock returns. It does not appear that the low earnings persistence of these firms is responsible for their poor future performance as predicted by the accrual anomaly, because the firms also report low concurrent earnings. In the context of the Chinese stock market, we interpret the results as being consistent with self-dealing through trade credit by controlling shareholders. This study contributes to the self-dealing literature by identifying a more subtle channel of expropriation of minority shareholders in China.     

Tunneling through intercorporate loans: The China experience

This study investigates a particularly brazen form of corporate abuse, in which controlling shareholders use intercorporate loans to siphon billions of RMB from hundreds of Chinese listed companies during the 1996–2006 period. We document the nature and extent of these transactions, evaluate their economic consequences, examine factors that affect their cross-sectional severity, and report on the mitigating roles of auditors, institutional investors, and regulators. Collectively, our findings shed light on the severity of the minority shareholder expropriation problem in China, as well as the relative efficacy of various legal and extra-legal governance mechanisms in that country.