Pricing interest-rate-derivative securities

This article shows that the one-state-variable interest-ratemodels of Vasicek (1977) and Cox, Ingersoll, and Ross (1985b)can be extended so that they are consistent with both the currentterm structure of interest rates and either the current volatilitiesof all spot interest rates or the current volatilities of allforward interest rates. The extended Vasicek model is shownto be very tractable analytically. The article compares optionprices obtained using the extended Vasicek model with thoseobtained using a number of other models.  

Over-investment of free cash flow

This paper examines the extent of firm level over-investment of free cash flow. Using an accounting-based framework to measure over-investment and free cash flow, I find evidence that, consistent with agency cost explanations, over-investment is concentrated in firms with the highest levels of free cash flow. Further tests examine whether firms’ governance structures are associated with over-investment of free cash flow. The evidence suggests that certain governance structures, such as the presence of activist shareholders, appear to mitigate over-investment.  

Correlations in price changes and volatility across international stock markets

The short-run interdependence of prices and price volatilityacross three major international stock market is studied. Dailyopening and closing prices of major stock indexes for the Tokyo,London, and New York stock markets are examined. The analysisutilizes the autoregressive conditionally heteroskedastic (ARCH)family of statistical models to explore these pricing relationship.Evidence of price volatility spillovers from New York to Tokyo,London to Tokyo, and New York to London is observed, but noprice volatility spillover effects in other directions are foundfor the pre-October 1987 period.  

Foreign Investment and Productivity Growth in Czech Enterprises

This article uses firm-level data for the Czech Republic toshow that during 1992–96 foreign investment had the predictedpositive impact on total factor productivity growth of recipientfirms. This result is robust to corrections for the sample biasthat arises because foreign companies tend to invest in firmswhose initial productivity is above average. Together, jointventures and foreign direct investment appear to have a negativespillover effect on firms that do not have foreign partnerships.However, with foreign direct investment alone, the magnitudeof the spillover becomes much smaller and loses significance.This result, in conjunction with the fact that joint venturesand foreign direct investment account for a significant shareof total output in many industries, suggests that further researchis required to determine the extent of knowledge diffusion fromfirms that have foreign links to those that do not.  

Learning to be overconfident

We develop a multiperiod market model describing both the processby which traders learn about their ability and how a bias inthis learning can create overconfident traders. A trader inour model initially does not know his own ability. He infersthis ability from his successes and failures. In assessing hisability the trader takes too much credit for his successes.This leads him to become overconfident. A trader's expectedlevel of overconfidence increases in the early stages of hiscareer. Then, with more experience, he comes to better recognizehis own ability. The patterns in trading volume, expected profits,price volatility, and expected prices resulting from this endogenousoverconfidence are analyzed.  

Value-at-risk-based risk management: optimal policies and asset prices

This article analyzes optimal, dynamic portfolio and wealth/consumptionpolicies of utility maximizing investors who must also managemarket-risk exposure using Value-at-Risk (VaR). We find thatVaR risk managers often optimally choose a larger exposure torisky assets than non-risk managers and consequently incur largerlosses when losses occur. We suggest an alternative risk-managementmodel, based on the expectation of a loss, to remedy the shortcomingsof VaR. A general-equilibrium analysis reveals that the presenceof VaR risk managers amplifies the stock-market volatility attimes of down markets and attenuates the volatility at timesof up markets.  

Stock-price manipulation

It is generally agreed that speculators can make profits frominsider trading or from the release of false information. Bothforms of stock-price manipulation have now been made illegalIn this article, we ask whether it impossible to make profitsfrom a different kind of manipulation, in which an uninformedspeculator simply buys and sells shares. We show that in a rationalexpectations framework, where all agents maximize expected utility,it is possible for an uninformed manipulator to make a profit,provided investors attach a positive probability to the manipulatorbeing an informed trader.  

On cox processes and credit risky securities

A framework is presented for modeling defaultable securities and credit derivatives which allows for dependence between market risk factors and credit risk. The framework reduces the technical issues of modeling credit risk to the same issues faced when modeling the ordinary term structure of interest rates. It is shown how to generalize a model of Jarrow, Lando and Turnbull (1997) to allow for stochastic transition intensities between rating categories and into default. This generalization can handle contracts with payments explicitly linked to ratings. It is also shown how to obtain a term structure model for all different rating categories simultaneously and how to obtain an affine-like structure. An implementation is given in a simple one factor model in which the affine structure gives closed form solutions.  

Differences of opinion make a horse race

A model of trading in speculative markets is based on differencesof opinion among traders. Our purpose is to explain some ofthe empirical regularities that have been documented concerningthe relationship between volume and price and the time-seriesproperties of price and volume. We assume that traders sharecommon prior beliefs and receive common information but differin the way in which they interpret this information. Some resultsare that absolute price changes and volume are positively correlated,consecutive price changes exhibit negative serial correlation,and volume is positively autocorrelated.  

The Role of Transfer Price for Coordination and Control within a Firm

This paper explores the role of transfer prices as coordinating mechanisms within a firm. Three cases (full information; pure adverse selection; adverse selection and moral hazard) are analyzed and compared to show how quantity and effort are affected as assumptions on observability are progrssively relaxed. The analysis of the second case, having two observable variables, identifies the necessary and sufficient condition under which the local approach can be applied. The third case is reinterpreted as transfer prices in a direct delegation setting. The main results are: First, the optimal transfer price is standard average cost plus. Second, it is not necessarily decreasing in quantity unlike the downward sloping demand function.