Correlations in price changes and volatility across international stock markets

The short-run interdependence of prices and price volatilityacross three major international stock market is studied. Dailyopening and closing prices of major stock indexes for the Tokyo,London, and New York stock markets are examined. The analysisutilizes the autoregressive conditionally heteroskedastic (ARCH)family of statistical models to explore these pricing relationship.Evidence of price volatility spillovers from New York to Tokyo,London to Tokyo, and New York to London is observed, but noprice volatility spillover effects in other directions are foundfor the pre-October 1987 period.  

Value-at-risk-based risk management: optimal policies and asset prices

This article analyzes optimal, dynamic portfolio and wealth/consumptionpolicies of utility maximizing investors who must also managemarket-risk exposure using Value-at-Risk (VaR). We find thatVaR risk managers often optimally choose a larger exposure torisky assets than non-risk managers and consequently incur largerlosses when losses occur. We suggest an alternative risk-managementmodel, based on the expectation of a loss, to remedy the shortcomingsof VaR. A general-equilibrium analysis reveals that the presenceof VaR risk managers amplifies the stock-market volatility attimes of down markets and attenuates the volatility at timesof up markets.  

Stock-price manipulation

It is generally agreed that speculators can make profits frominsider trading or from the release of false information. Bothforms of stock-price manipulation have now been made illegalIn this article, we ask whether it impossible to make profitsfrom a different kind of manipulation, in which an uninformedspeculator simply buys and sells shares. We show that in a rationalexpectations framework, where all agents maximize expected utility,it is possible for an uninformed manipulator to make a profit,provided investors attach a positive probability to the manipulatorbeing an informed trader.  

Differences of opinion make a horse race

A model of trading in speculative markets is based on differencesof opinion among traders. Our purpose is to explain some ofthe empirical regularities that have been documented concerningthe relationship between volume and price and the time-seriesproperties of price and volume. We assume that traders sharecommon prior beliefs and receive common information but differin the way in which they interpret this information. Some resultsare that absolute price changes and volume are positively correlated,consecutive price changes exhibit negative serial correlation,and volume is positively autocorrelated.  

Transmission of volatility between stock markets

This article investigates why, in October 1987, almost all stockmarkets fell together despite widely differing economic circumstances.We construct a model in which 'contagion' between markets occursas a result of attempts by rational agents to infer informationfrom price changes in other markets. This provides a channelthrough which a 'mistake' in one market can be transmitted toother markets. We offer supporting evidence for contagion effectsusing two different sources of data.  

The Role of Transfer Price for Coordination and Control within a Firm

This paper explores the role of transfer prices as coordinating mechanisms within a firm. Three cases (full information; pure adverse selection; adverse selection and moral hazard) are analyzed and compared to show how quantity and effort are affected as assumptions on observability are progrssively relaxed. The analysis of the second case, having two observable variables, identifies the necessary and sufficient condition under which the local approach can be applied. The third case is reinterpreted as transfer prices in a direct delegation setting. The main results are: First, the optimal transfer price is standard average cost plus. Second, it is not necessarily decreasing in quantity unlike the downward sloping demand function.  

Why do security prices change? A transaction-level analysis of NYSE stocks

This article develops and tests a structural model of intradayprice formation that embodies public information shocks andmicrostructure effects. We use the model to analyze intradaypatterns in bid-ask spreads, price volatility, transaction costs,and return and quote auto-correlations, and to construct metricsfor price discovery and effective trading costs. Informationasymmetry and uncertainty over fundamentals decrease over theday, although transaction costs increase. The results help explainthe U-shaped pattern in intraday bid-ask spreads and volatility,and are also consistent with the intra-day decline in the varianceof ask price changes.  

Stock prices and volume

We undertake a comprehensive investigation of price and volumeco-movement using daily New York Stock Exchange data from 1928to 1987. We adjust the data to take into account well-knowncalendar effects and long-run trends. To describe the process,we use a seminonparametric estimate of the joint density ofcurrent price change and volume conditional on past price changesand volume. Four empirical regularities are found: (i) positivecorrelation between conditional volatility and volume; (ii)large price movements are followed by high volume; (iii) conditioningon lagged volume substantially attenuates the 'leverage' effect;.and (iv) after conditioning on lagged volume, there is a positiverisk-return relation.  

When are contrarian profits due to stock market overreaction?

If returns on some stocks systematically lead or lag those ofothers, a portfolio strategy that sells 'winners' and buys 'losers'can produce positive expected returns, even if no stock's returnsare negatively autocorrelated as virtually all models of overreactionimply. Using a particular contrarian strategy we show that,despite negative autocorrelation in individual stock returns,weekly portfolio returns are strongly positively autocorrelatedand are the result of important cross-auto-correlations. Wefind that the returns of large stocks lead those of smallerstocks, and we present evidence against overreaction as theonly source of contrarian profits.  

Pricing strategy and financial policy

Recent empirical evidence indicates that capital structure changesaffect pricing strategies. In most cases, prices increase followingthe implementation of a leveraged buyout of a major firm inan industry, with the more leveraged firm in the industry charginghigher prices on average. Notable exceptions exist, however,when the leverage increasing firm's rival is relatively unlevered.The first observation is consistent with a model where firmscompete for market share on the basis of price. The second observationcan be explained within the context of a Stackelberg model wherethe relatively unlevered rival acts as the Stackelberg priceleader.