Program Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT) in Construction Schedule Risk Assessment

Construction project scheduling is one of the most critical factors for project success measurement.Not only for the project planning but for construction process management,the scheduling is the basic tool for communication between the owner and the project manager.By developing the schedule before the project starts,the owner knows in advance that the expected timeline of the project.By preparing construction process scheduling,the owner and general contractor can better manage the subcontractors,sub-trades progress,materials storage and deliveries,labors schedule and equipment set up which will eventually save time,money and hassle.Basically,Critical Path Method(CPM) is commonly used in the construction industry.CPM is a deterministic method that assumes that through the network,there is at least one path that determines the project duration and that the path is the critical path.CPM does not consider the uncertainty in the activities;rather it assumes that each activity can be finished in the given situation.Program Evaluation and Review Technique(PERT) is a stochastic technique which is based on the assumption that the duration of a single activity can be described by a probability density function.PERT takes into account the uncertainty during the construction process and has been created out of the need to plan,schedule and control complex projects with many uncertainties.The PERT approach is stated in some books and papers,but there is no deep investigation on the application in the schedule risk assessment.This paper investigates the PERT work process and takes a valuable try on the construction schedule risk assessment by using case studies.The utilization in the estimate the construction liquidated damage with the uncertainties is performed,which also can be used in the insurance company to calculate the insurance premium.     

Does conglomeration really reduce credit risk?

I quantify the effects of conglomeration on credit risk by first computing theoretical default probabilities for conglomerates and their hypothetical stand‐alone counterparts and then mapping them into physical probabilities using a comprehensive database of corporate failures. Comparing the credit risk of conglomerates with that of hypothetical stand‐alone firms, I report significant reductions in the annual probability of default for small firms. My results support the proposition that managers can have a strong incentive to engage in conglomeration, even if it reduces shareholder value and show for which firms this is the case.     

Cost effectiveness of tiotropium for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease: a systematic review of the evidence

Abstract

Background:

Tiotropium has been shown to reduce exacerbations and improve quality of life for patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), a lung disease characterized by a persistent and progressive airflow limitation.

Objectives:

To present a systematic literature review of the cost effectiveness of treatment with tiotropium compared with other currently used treatments for COPD.

Methods:

A systematic search was performed via PubMed, the Cochrane database, and EMBASE from 2002 to 2009. Methods and results by study design and by country were compared.

Results:

Seventeen studies were included in the review. Study designs were characterized as follows: modeling based on clinical trial data, and empirical analysis based on either clinical trial or observational data. Comparing monotherapy regimens (12 studies), all study designs found that treatment with tiotropium was associated with lower costs for hospitalisation and other non-drug services. Total costs, including the costs of maintenance drugs, were lower with tiotropium in some, but not all, of the studies. Tiotropium was shown to be cost effective based on commonly accepted benchmark values. Limitations of the review included the wide variety of outcome measures used in different studies, the limited number of observational database studies for monotherapy, and limited data for combination therapy regimens.

Conclusions:

The main conclusions of the economic evaluations derived from clinical trial data at the time of product approval and from later observational data reflecting clinical use are similar: use of tiotropium monotherapy is associated with lower hospital and other non-drug costs and better health outcomes and is either cost saving or cost effective compared with other maintenance monotherapies.     

Determinants of Monitoring Capabilities in International Franchising: Foodservice Firms within East Asia

This paper undertakes an exploratory study on determining capabilities of international franchising within East Asia. There is a need to develop a deeper understanding in franchising within East Asia as much of the franchising literature is based on the U.S. experience. Findings from this paper indicate that international franchisors use a combination of mechanisms to prevent franchisee opportunism in East Asia. They include ex-ante bonds, performance schedules and formal controls in brand management. However, the effectiveness of these mechanisms depend on the capabilities of the franchisor to negotiate a high initial franchise fee, select the right franchisee and make adaptation but still maintain brand integrity.     

Healthcare costs for Crohn’s disease patients treated with infliximab: a propensity weighted comparison of the effects of treatment adherence

Objective:

The objective for the research was to evaluate the direct healthcare costs for Crohn’s disease (CD) patients categorized by adherence status.

Methods:

Adult patients with ≥1 claim for infliximab and ≥2 claims for CD who were continuously insured for 12 months before and after their first infliximab infusion (index date) were identified in a 2006–2009 US managed care database. Patients were excluded if they had rheumatoid arthritis claims, received infliximab billed as a pharmacy benefit, or received another biologic drug. Patients were categorized as being either adherent or intermittently adherent to infliximab using a pre-defined algorithm. Total and component direct costs, CD-related costs, rates of surgery, and days of hospitalization were estimated for the 360-day post-index period. Propensity weighted generalized linear models were used to adjust the cost estimates for potential confounding variables.

Results:

The total propensity weighted cost for infliximab adherent patients was $40,425 (95% CI?=?[$38,686, $42,242]), compared to $41,082 (95% CI?=?[$38,163, $44,223]) for the intermittently adherent (p?=?0.71). However, adherent patients had lower total direct medical costs, exclusive of infliximab, that were $13,097 (95% CI?=?[$12,141, $14,127]) compared with $20,068 (95% CI?=?[$17,676, $22,784]) for intermittently adherent patients as a result of substantially lower hospital and outpatient costs (p?Conclusions:

Greater drug-related costs for infliximab adherent patients were offset by lower costs from hospitalization and outpatient visits. These findings indicate that adherent patients have improved clinical outcomes, at a similar aggregate cost, than patients who are only intermittently adherent to therapy.     

收购方为什么要在兼并交易中雇用投资银行

本文考察了当兼并交易具有哪些特征时,收购方公司更可能会在兼并交易中雇用投资银行作为其兼并交易的财务顾问。研究结果表明,在下列情况下,收购方公司更有可能雇用投资银行作为其兼并交易的财务顾问：兼并交易较复杂,收购方公司的兼并交易经验不足,收购方公司仅收购目标公司部分资产或股权,兼并交易价格较高,兼并交易为敌意收购,收购方公司在金融行业运营,目标公司在很多行业经营。     

国外成本粘性理论的相关研究综述

随着学术界对成本习性认识的不断加深,成本粘性已成为管理会计研究领域一个新的研究方向,理解成本粘性有助于企业成本管理、证券分析师盈余预测以及投资者决策等.本文围绕目前国外与成本粘性理论相关的研究文献进行了综述,就成本粘性的存在性、影响因素和经济后果等方面的研究成果进行了梳理,并对现有研究进行了评述与展望.