Macroeconomic factors and antidumping filings: evidence from four countries

This paper examines the relationship between antidumping filings and macroeconomic factors. Real exchange rate fluctuations affect the two criteria for dumping in opposite ways, making the overall effect on filings ambiguous in theory. Examining the filing patterns of the four major users of AD law during the 1980-98 period we find that real exchange rates and domestic real GDP growth both have statistically significant impacts on filings. Bilateral filing data indicate that a one-standard deviation real appreciation of the domestic currency increases filings by 33%. We also find one-standard deviation fall in domestic real GDP increases filings by 23%.     

Trade deflection and trade depression

This is the first paper to empirically examine whether a country's use of an import restricting trade policy distorts a foreign country's exports to third markets. We first develop a theoretical model of worldwide trade in which the imposition of antidumping and safeguard tariffs, or “trade remedies,” by one country causes significant distortions in world trade flows. We then empirically test this model by investigating the effect of the United States' use of such import restrictions on Japanese exports of roughly 4800 products into 37 countries between 1992 and 2001. Our estimation yields evidence that US restrictions both deflect and depress Japanese export flows to third countries. Imposition of a US antidumping measure against Japan deflects trade, as the average antidumping duty on Japanese exports leads to a 5-7% increase in Japanese exports of the same product to the average third country market. The imposition of a US antidumping measure against a third country depresses trade, as the average US duty imposed on a third country leads to a 5-19% decrease in Japanese exports of that same product to the average third country's market. We also document the substantial variation in trade deflection and trade depression across different importing countries and exported products.     

反倾销、反补贴和保障措施——三大贸易救济措施比较分析

众所周知,虽然世贸组织极力倡导国际贸易自由化,并通过多边贸易谈判机制推进国际贸易自由化的进程,但世贸组织并不排斥一定程度和形式的贸易保护,尤其是当大量进口对进口国产生消极影响时,允许进口国采取一定的贸易救济措施来限制进口。近年来,随着我国出口的持续高速增长,越来越多的国家开始频繁对我国的出口实施限制措施,本文通过对反倾销、反补贴和保障措施三大贸易救济措施的比较分析,为我国企业的应对提供了参考意见。     

世贸组织反倾销谈判及中国的立场

由于反倾销制度的最大特征在于其灵活性和不确定性,各国适用反倾销的标准不一,反倾销对国际贸易自由化的负面影响越来越明显。世贸组织内部关于反倾销制度的谈判也随之硝烟再起。同时,出于不同的政治与经济利益的考量,成员国关于反倾销制度的改革方向的立场也不相同。世贸组织反倾销制度的改革方向对我国的对外贸易发展将会有重大的影响。我国一直是反倾销制度的主要调查国,因此我国应积极倡导在世贸组织中进行反倾销谈判,促使世贸组织出台更加严格的反倾销制度。     

Instructional Manipulation Checks: A longitudinal analysis with implications for MTurk

Instructional Manipulation Checks (IMCs) assess respondent behavior by, for example, asking participants not to answer a trick question. We find IMCs can be used to detect problematic response behavior in longitudinal surveys. This is important because a Latent Class Analysis based on IMC-failure in the two reported studies reveals that between 9% and 12% of respondents can be labelled Inattentive Stayers at the first survey-wave and between 13% and 17% at the third wave. The tendency of Inattentive Stayers to remain in the panel is particularly relevant for online panel services such as MTurk, with workers participating in many surveys over longer time-periods. We find IMC-failure to be mitigated by a warning to respondents that their attention will be checked early in the survey, but not by repeated exposure to IMCs, or a timer leaving questions on the screen longer. Respondent personality also plays a role in IMC-failure, which implies persistency of undesirable respondent behavior.     

美国对华农产品反倾销贸易救济效果分析——基于第三国(地区)市场的视角

在国际贸易中,对出口方的反倾销等贸易救济措施的运用被认为能够为进口方、即反倾销发起者提供有效的贸易保护。但是,如果在对反倾销的贸易保护效果的分析中同时考量第三国市场,则反倾销的贸易救济效果很可能低于发起者预期。本文采用动态面板模型,从第三国市场的角度分析了美国对华农产品反倾销的贸易保护效果。研究结果表明,美国对中国农产品出口的反倾销措施使中国受限产品发生了贸易偏转并挤占了反倾销发起方的海外市场,从而降低了美国反倾销贸易救济预期效果。本文的研究从一个新的视角对美中的贸易摩擦和救济的效果进行了分析,为贸易政策制定及今后双边和多边贸易谈判提供了有益的研究参考。     

论人民币汇率制度改革

自2005年7月21日起,我国开始实行以市场供求为基础、参考一篮子货币进行调整的、有管理的浮动汇率制度。但是改革才刚刚开始,人民币汇率形成机制尚不完善,在这种情况下,汇率制度进一步的调整与改革是必要的。本文在基于我国经济开放的背景下,讨论了我国现行人民币汇率制度的特点、积极方面和存在的不足,在考虑制约人民币汇率制度进一步改革的因素后,提出了汇率制度进一步改革的方向、目标和相应的对策选择。     

跨越反倾销税的外国直接投资研究述评

征收反倾销税的目的是保护国内产业免受倾销的损害，但外国厂商通过直接投资方式跨越反倾销税壁垒，降低甚至消除了反倾销税对国内产业的保护效果，对东道国贸易与投资政策提出挑战。本文对国外关于反倾销税的外国直接投资效应、跨越反倾销税的外国直接投资对东道国国内企业的影响以及东道国政府的政策选择等方面的研究作简要述评。     

澳大利亚反倾销政策及其特点探析

澳大利亚是世界上第二个制定反倾销政策的国家,其反倾销政策具有自身的特点。同时,在反倾销实践中,澳大利亚被称为全球四大传统反倾销用户之一,而中国则成为澳大利亚实施反倾销政策的首要目标国。本文从澳大利亚的反倾销管理体制出发,分析了澳大利亚反倾销政策的主要内容,进而考察了澳大利亚反倾销政策及其实践的特点。     

On the role of retaliation in trade agreements

This paper analyzes the role of retaliation in trade agreements. It shows that, in the presence of private information, retaliation can always be used to increase the welfare derived from such agreements by the participating governments. In particular, it is shown that retaliation is a necessary feature of any efficient equilibrium.We argue that retaliation would not be necessary if governments could resort to international transfers or export subsidies to compensate for terms-of-trade externalities. Within the current world trading system, though, in which transfers are seldom observed whereas export subsidies are prohibited, the use of the remaining trade instruments in a retaliatory fashion might be optimal. The model is used to interpret the retaliatory use of antidumping observed in the last decades, and the proliferation of these measures relative to other trade remedies.