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1.
A moral hazard model is used to show why overly optimistic revenue forecasts prior to elections can be optimal: Opportunistic governments can increase spending and appear more competent; ex post deficits emerge in election years, thereby producing political forecast cycles – as also found for US states in the empirical literature. Additionally, we obtain three theoretical results which are tested with panel data for Portuguese municipalities. The extent of manipulations is reduced when (i) the winning margin is expected to widen; (ii) the incumbent is not re-running; and/or (iii) the share of informed voters (proxied by education) goes up.  相似文献   
2.
Informal work is traditionally large in Russia and has further increased in the recent years. We explore the implications of this shift in terms of wage dynamics. Our characterization is based on the estimation of informal pay gaps at the mean and along the wage distribution, relying on the Russian Longitudinal Monitoring Survey for 2003–2017. Our approach comprises three original features: we rely on unconditional quantile effects of informality, we incorporate quantile-specific fixed effects using a tractable approach, and we suggest a treatment of the incidental parameter bias. Over the whole period, informal wage penalties are relatively small and do not suggest heavily segmented labor markets, even at low wage levels. Yet, in the past decade, a substantial negative selection into informal employment and self-employment has taken place, on average and especially at low earnings. Economic downturns and labor market policies have likely contributed to the shakeout of less productive workers in the formal sector, making the low-tier informal sector more of a last resort.  相似文献   
3.
森林运动旅游的健康效应及其影响因素研究   总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1  
以衢州市灵鹫山森林运动小镇为例,采用随机抽样的方法对游客进行问卷调查获取相关数据信息,然后运用结构方程分析游客行为感知和森林旅游资源对游客健康效应的影响。结果表明:森林运动体验对身体健康、心理健康和社会健康具有正向促进效应,其中促进身体健康的效应最大、促进心理健康的效应最小;运动项目体验、自然景观资源、生态环境资源和配套设施资源均对健康效应产生正向影响,且运动项目体验的健康促进效应更为综合和显著;对于提升森林运动旅游的健康效应,自然景观资源发挥的作用最理想,其次是运动项目体验和配套设施资源;生态环境资源的正向影响作用与游客的感知评价差异最大。因此,为有效提升森林运动旅游对游客的健康促进效应,森林运动型景区要在持续提升森林运动的项目种类、运动强度和难度适宜性的基础上提高景观资源、森林生态环境、管理人员专业素质和配套设施的质量和水平。  相似文献   
4.
Using data on European Central Bank's (ECB's) reserve currency portfolios, we find that money managers react to relative rankings (i.e., own vs. peers’ performance) by adjusting portfolio active risk levels measured ex ante by actual deviations from their benchmark. This occurs in the absence of explicit incentives as no monetary reward is promised for winning this “tournament” among portfolio managers. We collect information on managers’ characteristics, including age, education, tenure, salary, and career path, and investigate the role played by implicit incentives. We provide evidence that both individual career concerns and institutional peer pressure contribute to the documented relationship between ranking and risk taking.  相似文献   
5.
保险业是我国金融业对外开放的排头兵,改革开放以来,保险业取得巨大进步,目前我国已成为全球第二大保险市场。但外资保险机构在华的发展仍相对缓慢,存在市场份额较小、区域布局不平衡等问题。使用跨国面板数据实证分析发现,扩大金融保险业的开放有利于经济增长;使用制度变量实证发现,良好的制度环境特别是稳定的政权和政府高质量监管有利于发挥金融保险业经济增长效应。未来我国保险业首先应以市场化为原则,负面清单制度为核心,加快金融保险业对外开放的步伐,提高保险市场供给效率。其次,要强化监管,完善偿付能力监管等监管工具,确保监管能力和对外开放水平相适应。最后,实施“引进来,走出去”并举的双向开放战略。  相似文献   
6.
Prior studies on power and interfirm learning in alliances have devoted limited attention to multiplicate influences of diverse power sources on exploration and exploitation and whether such influences on these two strategies are similar or different. This study investigates the joint effects of two types of perceived power—capability-driven power and position-driven power—on exploration versus exploitation in asymmetric alliances. Using a sample of 205 high-technology firms in China, the analyses suggest that each of the two types of perceived power separately has no direct effects on either exploration or exploitation. However, they complement (multiplicative effects) each other in promoting exploitation and exploration. Interestingly, the balanced effect of perceived position-driven power and perceived capability-driven power is positively related to exploration, while no such an impact is found in terms of exploitation. This study provides alternative insights about inter-organizational learning in asymmetric alliances and points out a direction for future research.  相似文献   
7.
This study investigates whether major USDA reports still provide important news to changing crop markets. The news component of each report, or market “surprise,” is measured as a difference between the USDA estimate and its private expectation in corn, soybeans, and wheat markets. Changes in the relevance of USDA information are assessed by examining changes in the magnitude of market surprises and shifts in the futures price reaction to these surprises, which isolates the impact of each report. The stable size of market surprises over time suggests that competition from alternative data sources has not reduced the news component of USDA crop reports. Increasing price reaction to most reports, including those facing competition from alternative information sources, suggests that value of public information may be enhanced in uncertain markets affected by structural changes.  相似文献   
8.
《Journal of Retailing》2019,95(4):111-115
Sensory elements are an important aspect of both offline and online retail stores and can non-consciously influence consumer judgments and purchase behavior. In offline settings, ambient factors like scent, lighting, and music have been shown to influence customers’ shopping experiences and their buying behaviors. For online retail outlets, sensory factors related to color, display patterns, and layouts can have significant effects on consumer behavior. Sensory elements have strong managerial relevance since they can non-consciously influence behaviors and because they are relatively easy to change; for example, it requires minimal effort to change the lighting or the music at a physical retail store or the display pattern for an online store. The eight papers in this special issue address theoretical and practical issues related to how different sensory elements can strongly influence retail practices. These papers focus on underexplored topic areas and also on emerging technologies, which stimulate thoughts for further research in these areas.  相似文献   
9.
This paper endogenizes the number of firms in an industry with positive network effects, complete incompatibility, and firms that compete in quantity. To this end, we compare two possibilities: free entry and second‐best number of firms (the one that maximizes social welfare). We show that with business‐stealing competition, free entry yields, in general, more firms than the socially optimal solution. In addition, we find that by the nature of the industry with firm‐specific networks, total production may be greater or lower under free entry than with a regulator; moreover, some industries attain their maximum social welfare with a monopoly.  相似文献   
10.
Demand forecasting is critical to sales and operations planning (S&OP), but the effects of sales promotions can be difficult to forecast. Typically, a baseline statistical forecast is judgmentally adjusted on receipt of information from different departments. However, much of this information either has no predictive value or its value is unknown. Research into base rate discounting has suggested that such information may distract forecasters from the average uplift and reduce accuracy. This has been investigated in situations in which forecasters were able to adjust the statistical forecasts for promotions via a forecasting support system (FSS). In two ecologically valid experiments, forecasters were provided with the mean level of promotion uplift, a baseline statistical forecast, and quantitative and qualitative information. However, the forecasters were distracted from the base rate and misinterpreted the information available to them. These findings have important implications for the design of organizational S&OP processes, and for the implementation of FSSs.  相似文献   
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