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1.
苏冬蔚  彭松林 《金融研究》2019,471(9):188-207
本文研究上市公司内部人减持、年报、诉讼、分析师评级、停复牌以及高送转等重大公告前后卖空交易行为的变化,系统考察卖空者是否参与内幕交易以及何种因素影响卖空者参与内幕交易,发现卖空率较高的股票具有较低的未来收益,表明卖空者拥有信息优势,属知情交易者;卖空者拥有非常精确的择时交易能力,在重大利空公告前显著增加卖空量,而在利好公告前则显著减少卖空头寸,表明卖空者作为知情交易者的信息优势源自内幕消息;公司内、外部投资者的信息不对称程度越低或公司所在地的法治水平越高,卖空者参与内幕交易的行为就越少。因此,监管机构应密切关注公司重大消息发布前后卖空量的异常变动,同时,完善信息披露规则、健全证券分析师制度并强化法律法规的执行力度,才能有效防范卖空者参与内幕交易。  相似文献   
2.
胡冬梅  袁君宇 《南方经济》2019,38(11):94-112
文章扩展了Yang(2007)的厂商定价模型,对汇率传递非对称性、特点和成立条件进行理论分析,发现对称传递需要满足严格的条件,而现实中更常见的是非对称汇率传递。在一定条件下,商品需求弹性越大,越可能呈现出口国货币贬值传递率高而升值传递率低的特点。利用2000年1月至2011年12月我国出口日本的966种商品价格数据,发现汇率波动向价格传递具有非对称性:(1)人民币升值时,日元价格上涨较少;而贬值时,价格下降较多。我国出口商品的需求弹性较大,在日本市场上面对的是一个强竞争结构。(2)若月度升值超过一定幅度(测算约为2.43%),传递率又会有所上升,说明尽管日元价格易跌难涨,但在升值导致成本上涨较多、明显挤压利润时,厂商不得不适当提高日元售价。采用2000年至2018年9月日本从中国进口单位价值指数进行稳健性检验,得出类似结论。现阶段稳定的人民币名义汇率对我国出口企业是更为有利的。  相似文献   
3.
本文利用上市公司的相关数据,实证研究了异质信念对我国股票市场股价波动的 影响,探讨了在不同的市场行情和企业性质下异质信念对股价波动的非对称性影响,并对融资 融券推出前后异质信念对股价波动的非对称性影响进行了研究。研究结果表明:(1)股票投 资者异质信念的差异程度越大,股价偏离其股票的内在价值就越大,进而导致股价的波动程度 更剧烈;(2)异质信念对股价波动的影响呈非对称性,在熊市行情下异质信念对股价波动的 影响要高于牛市,在国有企业背景下异质信念对股价的波动程度大于非国有企业;(3)融资 融券推出后在一定程度上可以减缓异质信念对股价波动的影响。  相似文献   
4.
This study explores the spillovers between economic policy uncertainty (EPU) and stock market realized volatility (RV). The monthly index of Chinese and US EPU and RV are used to analyze the pairwise directional spillovers. We find that RV is a net receiver that is more vulnerable to shocks from U.S. EPU than to shocks from Chinese EPU. We further decompose the RV into good and bad volatility to test the asymmetric spillover effect between the stock market and EPU. The results suggest that EPU has a bigger effect on bad volatility in the stock market throughout most of the sample period. However, we find that good volatility spillovers become larger during periods of stimulated reform, whereas bad volatility spillovers become larger during periods of international disputes. We show that Chinese stock market volatility is sensitive to both U.S. and Chinese EPU and that the spillover is asymmetric in different periods.  相似文献   
5.
宫汝凯 《金融研究》2021,492(6):152-169
信息传导的非同步和投资者情绪变化是股票市场的两个典型特征,前者会引发投资者之间出现信息不对称问题,后者主要体现为投资者过度自信,两者共同作用影响股票价格变动。本文将信息不对称和投资者过度自信情绪置于同一个分析框架,建立两阶段动态序贯定价理论模型研究现实市场上信息传导过程中股价变动的内在机制。结果表明:(1)面临新信息的进入,投资者对股票收益预期的调整与均衡价格之间具有正相关关系;(2)面临有利消息时,过度自信投资者比例越大,股票的均衡价格越高,投资收益将越低;面临不利消息时则相反;(3)随着过度自信投资者比例以及过度自信程度升高,市场风险溢价将下降;(4)投资者群体在信息传导过程中出现分化,对股价变动形成异质信念,未获取信息和获取信息但未出现过度自信的投资者认为股价被高估,获取信息且出现过度自信的投资者认为价格被低估,促使更多的交易,引发市场成交量和股价变动;(5)过度自信投资者比例与过度自信程度提高均会对市场效率产生正向影响,而对市场深度具有负向效应。最后,基于理论结果对非对称性和持续性等典型的市场波动性特征进行解释。  相似文献   
6.
We extend the GARCH–MIDAS model to take into account possible different impacts from positive and negative macroeconomic variations on financial market volatility: a Monte Carlo simulation which shows good properties of the estimator with realistic sample sizes. The empirical application is performed on the daily S&P500 volatility dynamics with the U.S. monthly industrial production and national activity index as additional (signed) determinants. We estimate the Relative Marginal Effect of macro variable movements on volatility at different lags. In the out-of-sample analysis, our proposed GARCH–MIDAS model not only statistically outperforms the competing specifications (GARCH, GJR-GARCH and GARCH–MIDAS models), but shows significant utility gains for a mean-variance investor under different risk aversion parameters. Attention to robustness is given by choosing different samples and estimating the model in an international context (six different stock markets).  相似文献   
7.
Organic agriculture, which produces commodities that can be qualitatively differentiated from conventional food products, has grown into an important market in many countries. The dynamics of commodity prices in both sectors are partly interdependent, but are also shaped by independent determinants and have rarely been studied. We analyze organic food markets and their interdependencies with conventional markets in the context of wheat markets in Germany, which have been subject to a number of fundamental changes during the last two decades. Based on institutional market characteristics, we suggest a flexible Markov‐switching asymmetric time series model. We find a pronounced temporal sequence of market phases that differ in their asymmetric dynamics and the extent to which the organic price is influenced by the conventional price. Organic wheat prices tend to be increasingly connected to prices of conventional wheat.  相似文献   
8.
Abstract

There remains academic debate on the association between credible financial information and small firms’ access to diversified sources of finance. This study investigates the role of credible financial information and its interaction with a country’s legal and regulatory environment on the access of small- and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) to diversified sources of finance in 129 developing countries. The findings indicate positive impacts of financial information quality and a country’s legal and regulatory environment on small firms’ access to diversified sources of finance. SMEs operating in a weak legal and regulatory environment benefit more from providing credible financial information. The findings are robust after controlling for the endogeneity of firms audit decision using a two-stage instrumental variable method. Our evidence suggests that firms’ credible signaling of the quality of their financial information helps reduce the adverse selection problem for finance suppliers, increasing small firms’ access to diversified sources of finance.  相似文献   
9.
This study employs the linear and nonlinear ARDL cointegration methodologies to examine the potential symmetric and asymmetric responses of suicide rates to unemployment rates in the US from 1928 to 2013. Our results suggest that suicide rates are pro-cyclical with respect to the business cycle (measured by changes in the unemployment rate) after extensively controlling for divorce and fertility rates. Unemployment has symmetric long-run effects on the age-adjusted suicide rate and four age-specific (from ages 25–34 to 55–64) suicide rates, while the effect of an economic expansion on suicide rates for those aged over 45 is greater than the effect of an economic recession. These findings imply that the effect of an economic expansion on the decrease of the suicide rate is higher than the effect of an economic recession on the increase of the suicide rate for individuals aged over 45. Therefore, intervention designed to reduce suicidal behaviors should emphasize periods of economic recession more than periods of economic expansion for those of middle age and beyond.  相似文献   
10.
Usual inference methods for stable distributions are typically based on limit distributions. But asymptotic approximations can easily be unreliable in such cases, for standard regularity conditions may not apply or may hold only weakly. This paper proposes finite-sample tests and confidence sets for tail thickness and asymmetry parameters (αα and ββ) of stable distributions. The confidence sets are built by inverting exact goodness-of-fit tests for hypotheses which assign specific values to these parameters. We propose extensions of the Kolmogorov–Smirnov, Shapiro–Wilk and Filliben criteria, as well as the quantile-based statistics proposed by McCulloch (1986) in order to better capture tail behavior. The suggested criteria compare empirical goodness-of-fit or quantile-based measures with their hypothesized values. Since the distributions involved are quite complex and non-standard, the relevant hypothetical measures are approximated by simulation, and pp-values are obtained using Monte Carlo (MC) test techniques. The properties of the proposed procedures are investigated by simulation. In contrast with conventional wisdom, we find reliable results with sample sizes as small as 25. The proposed methodology is applied to daily electricity price data in the US over the period 2001–2006. The results show clearly that heavy kurtosis and asymmetry are prevalent in these series.  相似文献   
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