新一代车险“理赔难”

保险作为现代服务行业之一,服务质量问题始终贯穿其中。其中,“理赔难”的现象层出不穷。从1929年11月在中国上海成立第一家保险公司太平保险,到目前保险行业已发展90余年,中国的车险理赔还难吗?依然难,只是难点变了,老矛盾得到部分解决,新矛盾层出不穷,唯独对理赔服务质量的评价参差不齐是永恒的。     

险资股权投资的结构性改革研究*——基于险资投资的倒U型效应分析

保险资金作为重要的机构投资者能否发挥促进公司绩效提升的作用在已有研究和监管政策制定上都存在较大争议。本文以2005-2017年A股上市公司为研究样本，发现险资持股比例对上市公司绩效以及估值影响存在显著的倒U型曲线效应，相应机制研究表明险资持股通过显著影响两类代理成本的渠道发挥治理作用。在适度持股比例以下，险资增持能够降低被投资公司管理费用率和其他应收款占比，并提高资产周转率，从而降低两类代理成本；持股超过一定比例反而造成两类代理成本上升。险资持股比例变化对保险机构调研次数的影响则从公司治理参与角度印证了以上结论。对倒U型曲线效应的深入分析既有助于深化对机构投资者影响公司绩效的多重效应和机制的认识，同时为在金融机构层面落实金融供给侧结构性改革、增强险资服务实体经济能力提供参考。     

Winning us with trifles: Adverse selection in the use of philanthropy as insurance

Research Summary: We study the use of corporate philanthropy as a form of reputation insurance, developing a formal model of such insurance to examine how the terms of insurance in equilibrium change under different assumptions about the firm and its stakeholders. We then test the predictions from this model in the U.S. petroleum industry and find that philanthropic donations offer insurance‐like benefits, but are also positively associated with subsequent oil spills—firms that give more, spill more—with this association being stronger for spills that are under firms’ control and in states with low civic capacity. These results are consistent with an adverse selection/moral hazard equilibrium and suggest that the use of philanthropy as reputation insurance may benefit firms at the cost of society. Managerial Summary: Firms that donate to social causes develop a reputation for being socially responsible, and are often given the benefit of doubt when negative information about them comes to light. But are philanthropic firms truly more responsible? We argue that firms that donate more may be more likely to do harm—those that expect to do harm later are likely to give more now, and those that know their reputation protects them may become less careful. Evidence from the U.S. petroleum industry is consistent with this argument, with firms that give more having more subsequent oil spills, but only the type of spills that are under the firm's control, and only in states where the firm faces weaker scrutiny.     

How to fight against southern pine beetle epidemics: An insurance approach

The southern pine beetle (SPB) is among the leading biological agents killing southern pine species in the eastern United States. In light of recognized spatiotemporal autocorrelation in SPB outbreaks, we devise a spatiotemporal block bootstrapping method that can be applied to analyze spatiotemporally dependent infestations. We also identify the relevant risk determinants and evaluate their impacts on the frequency of SPB outbreaks. For example, we find forest type, climate, and natural disasters like storm and forest management are all significantly associated with SPB risks. Using the results of a statistical model, we design a county-level group index insurance plan that generates estimates of actuarially fair premium rates for timber stands containing southern pine species. Given that no government-provided compensation scheme for SPB epidemics currently exists, application of this new insurance product could reduce forest owners losses. Our study offers an approach to analyzing and protecting against risks of other destructive pests affecting the timber sector.     

Pharmaceutical cost‐sharing systems and savings for healthcare systems from parallel trade

This paper studies the consequences of parallel trade in a two‐country model. It compares a coinsurance scheme (consumers pay a percentage of the drug price) and an indemnity insurance scheme (reimbursement is independent of the drug price) with respect to changes in copayments and public health expenditure. In the destination country, copayments for patients decrease to a larger extent under indemnity insurance, whereas reductions in public health expenditure occur only under coinsurance. In the source country, copayments increase less under coinsurance, whereas health expenditure is reduced more under indemnity insurance. In both countries, total expenditure under parallel trade is lower.     

An application of two-stage quantile regression to insurance ratemaking

Two-part models based on generalized linear models are widely used in insurance rate-making for predicting the expected loss. This paper explores an alternative method based on quantile regression which provides more information about the loss distribution and can be also used for insurance underwriting. Quantile regression allows estimating the aggregate claim cost quantiles of a policy given a number of covariates. To do so, a first stage is required, which involves fitting a logistic regression to estimate, for every policy, the probability of submitting at least one claim. The proposed methodology is illustrated using a portfolio of car insurance policies. This application shows that the results of the quantile regression are highly dependent on the claim probability estimates. The paper also examines an application of quantile regression to premium safety loading calculation, the so-called Quantile Premium Principle (QPP). We propose a premium calculation based on quantile regression which inherits the good properties of the quantiles. Using the same insurance portfolio data-set, we find that the QPP captures the riskiness of the policies better than the expected value premium principle.     

Audit Firm Attributes and Auditor Litigation Risk

This study examines the association between auditors' litigation risk and audit firm attributes. Using professional liability insurance premiums as a proxy for auditors' litigation risk, we present evidence that the risk is lower in audit firms having: (1) separate non-audit and audit divisions; (2) a higher proportion of partners; and (3) a higher annual growth in number of CPAs employed. Additionally, we find that the risk is higher in audit firms having: (1) operating losses; and (2) high revenue growth. Our results are consistent with the idea that audit firms' financial condition and organizational structure affect their independence/ expertise, and, in turn, their litigation risk. Our results are broadly supportive of the PCAOB's (2015) and US Department of Treasury's (2008) views that investors, audit committees, management, and other regulators could benefit from having access to financial and organizational information about audit firms.     

Unemployment insurance benefits and income smoothing

Labor unemployment insurance reduces unemployment concerns. We argue that these benefits moderate incentives to smooth earnings to reduce employees’ concerns about unemployment risk. Using exogenous variations in unemployment insurance benefits, we find evidence consistent with this argument. We also find that the link between unemployment insurance benefits and income smoothing is stronger when there is higher unemployment risk and when the firm is likely to employ more low-wage workers, who find unemployment insurance benefits especially useful. Our paper contributes to the literature by showing that public policy decisions such as unemployment insurance have significant, albeit probably unintended, externalities on corporate financial reporting.     

Oil price and automobile stock return co-movement: A wavelet coherence analysis

This paper explores possible co-movement between oil price and automobile stock return in a joint time-frequency domain. Daily price series from August 01, 1996 to June 20, 2017 is used in this analysis. The results indicate that the co-movement between oil price and automobile stock return is strong during November, 2000–December, 2002 and March, 2006–December, 2009. The co-movement is found to be more pronounced in the long-term and stock return is sensitive to the higher oil price emanating from the demand shock. This contravenes the conventional wisdom that crude oil is always counter-cyclical to the automobile stocks. For investor, this weakens the probable gain from including oil asset in a portfolio of automobile stocks as crude oil does not offer cushion against bearish automobile stock markets during the crisis period.     

Interaction between crop insurance and technology adoption decisions: The case of wheat farmers in Chile

This paper examines relationships between crop insurance and input technology decisions among Chilean wheat farmers. Using nationwide farm‐level data, a bivariate probit model is estimated. We investigate the extent to which the adoption of production input technologies is associated with farmers’ participation in the insurance program. We find that relationships between insurance and technology decisions are significant only for family farmers. In particular, there is a negative relationship between participation in the insurance program and the adoption of modern irrigation. Interpretations based on the role of input technologies on insurance adoption and adverse selection behaviours are discussed.