The market-based dissemination of energy-access technologies as a business model for rural entrepreneurs: Evidence from Kenya

Improving access to more modern forms of energy requires supply chains that reach further into rural areas. This paper studies a supply-side intervention intended to foster last-mile distribution of energy-access technologies through local small-scale entrepreneurship. We use a staggered-implementation evaluation design to assess the impact on employment and income outcomes of the intervention, which is a large-scale program in Kenya that supports the diffusion of improved cookstoves and small solar products. The results demonstrate how trained entrepreneurs intensify and diversify their income-generating activities, often by shifting away from subsistence farming as a main source of income. For cookstove entrepreneurs, this goes along with improvements in individual and household incomes as well as perceived economic well-being. Our estimates suggest that impacts do not only differ between the two technologies but also across subgroups including gender, age, and baseline occupation. Our findings substantiate that market-based interventions can foster energy access in rural areas by supporting the establishment of local businesses. We highlight several contextual factors that are of relevance when considering the adoption of this approach.     

科技企业孵化器何以激活区域创新——风险投资与孵化基金的中介作用

完善创新生态系统、提升区域创新能力是我国科技企业孵化器建设的重要目标。基于2013-2018年中国（内地）30个省份面板数据，采用面板数据模型实证检验科技企业孵化器是否促进了区域创新能力提升，并基于中介效应模型探讨风险投资和孵化基金在其中的间接作用。结果发现：①科技企业孵化器建设显著提升了区域创新水平，但主要增加的是实用新型和外观设计专利申请授权数总量，对发明专利申请授权数并没有显著促进作用。上述结果在剔除直辖市样本、采用随机效应模型及空间计量模型的稳健性检验后依然成立；②通过中介效应模型检验发现，区域风险投资和孵化基金集聚效应是科技企业孵化器影响区域创新水平的主要机制；③科技企业孵化器对区域创新的影响在不同区域间差异较大，在东部地区的创新激励效应更加显著，而且政策工具强度对科技企业孵化器与区域创新水平的关系具有正向调节作用。     

Legally astute managers as a source of value in organizations

The legal and compliance departments in organizations have more influence than ever before. Why then are companies so vulnerable to legal liability? The problem may not be with talented legal professionals, but with the lack of legal knowledge held by MBAs and other business school graduates that make day-to-day decisions in modern organizations. Firms can close this knowledge gap and minimize legal liability by training their managers in legal astuteness—the ability of a manager to address legal issues successfully—by instilling four essential traits: respecting the rule of law, recognizing legal issues, resolving problems proactively, and reporting complex legal issues to experts. Job candidates should also be screened for traits of legal astuteness. A legally astute candidate, especially a graduate of a business school that requires legal education for all its students, can be a cultural ambassador for legal astuteness and a valuable liaison between legal and compliance departments and the candidate’s functional area. A legally ignorant candidate will require significant training and a frank assessment of the legal risk they bring to the organization. Modern firms in today’s legal environment face two choices: hire a legally astute manager now or deal with a compliance headache later.     

实现2035年发展目标的潜在增长率*

党的十九届五中全会提出了到2035年人均GDP达到中等发达国家水平的远景目标，因此测算和回答能否和如何如期实现该目标，对于我国实现第二个百年奋斗目标和坚持“四个自信”具有重要的意义。为此，本文根据跨越和陷入“中等收入陷阱”经济体的发展经验，对2021—2035年我国潜在增长率变化进行了测算。一是参照跨越和陷入“中等收入陷阱”经济体在我国相同发展阶段时各主要生产要素的变化，模拟设定我国未来各主要生产要素的增长率；二是通过运用附加人力资本的增长核算模型测算基准、乐观和悲观三种不同情境下未来我国经济的潜在增长率，验证我国2035年发展目标实现的可能性；三是依据主要要素对潜在增长率的贡献度，提出我国如期实现2035年发展目标的相应政策建议。     

Large agricultural investments in Kenya’s Nanyuki Area: Inventory and analysis of business models

Many experts agree that more agricultural investment is needed in the global South to improve local food security and reduce poverty. However, there is a lack of consensus about the types of investment needed to achieve these goals. This paper contributes to the literature on large agricultural investments and corresponding business models by inventorying and analysing such investments in Kenya’s Nanyuki area. We identify four clusters of business models that differ primarily by type of production and other distinct determinants, namely: demand from markets; access to land; land tenure regime and colonial history; actors involved; biophysical context; labour availability; and governance of the value chain via private standards. The study results shed light on the factors that help or hinder implementation of large agricultural investments and shape their impacts in the context of African land use systems. The way land is accessed represents one of the most-decisive factors determining the risks and opportunities associated with such projects. We find that most investments in the Nanyuki area occur on land bought or leased from private owners.     

全国煤炭交易中心运营模式研究

全国煤炭交易中心的设立对规范我国煤炭交易市场规则、实施能源宏观调控、提升我国煤炭国际定价话语权具有重要意义。在分析全国煤炭交易中心功能定位和业务的基础上,设计中长期合同邀约、现货挂牌、现货竞价、现货招投标4种交易模式及业务流程,提出依托国家重大战略争取政策支持、加强各方沟通完善综合物流体系、建立银企合作机制与信用体系、完善煤炭交易中心协调机制、增强信息服务与风险防控能力等对策建议。研究成果对优化煤炭供给结构、规范煤炭交易市场和保障国家煤炭能源安全提供了支撑。     

优化营商环境与外资企业FDI动机——市场寻求抑或效率寻求

在优化营商环境已成为当前发展中国家引资竞争新优势的背景下,针对优化营商环境影响外资企业FDI动机的考察变得尤为重要。本文在构建企业层面营商环境指数的基础上,考察了发展中国家优化营商环境影响外资企业FDI动机的机制及效应。结论表明:优化营商环境减弱(增强)了外资企业的市场(效率)寻求型FDI动机;内资企业竞争力的增强、外资企业特惠资源的取消和加工贸易型外资企业的存在,使得优化营商环境降低了外资企业的生产率,进而市场(效率)寻求型FDI动机减弱(增强)。细分样本的考察发现,上述结论仅存在于独资企业、工业和低收入国家的外资企业中,对于合资企业、服务业和高收入国家的外资企业,优化营商环境对其FDI动机无显著影响,且生产率的中介效应不存在。本研究从优化营商环境的视角为当前中国引资政策的制定提供了更为具体的政策启示。     

National response strategies and marketing innovations during the COVID-19 pandemic

During the COVID-19 pandemic, different nations have adopted a variety of response strategies to fight and contain the new coronavirus. Such national response strategies can be classified into three categories based on their underlying philosophy: strict control with unlimited resources, relentless contribution with limited resources, and rough rationality with limited resources. We discuss the philosophies, characteristics, and performances of the three response strategies and when they should be adopted. We also examine what marketing innovation strategies enterprises should adopt to survive and grow their businesses in both the short and long term. This study provides important strategic implications for national policymakers and enterprises on the use of response strategies as well as marketing innovation tactics and strategies to be used both during and after the pandemic.     

Deep learning for modeling the collection rate for third-party buyers

This study evaluates a wide range of machine learning techniques such as deep learning, boosting, and support vector regression to predict the collection rate of more than 65,000 defaulted consumer credits from the telecommunications sector that were bought by a German third-party company. Weighted performance measures were defined based on the value of exposure at default for comparing collection rate models. The approach proposed in this paper is useful for a third-party company in managing the risk of a portfolio of defaulted credit that it purchases. The main finding is that one of the machine learning models we investigate, the deep learning model, performs significantly better out-of-sample than all other methods that can be used by an acquirer of defaulted credits based on weighted-performance measures. By using unweighted performance measures, deep learning and boosting perform similarly. Moreover, we find that using a training set with a larger proportion of the dataset does not improve prediction accuracy significantly when deep learning is used. The general conclusion is that deep learning is a potentially performance-enhancing tool for credit risk management.     

国有股权参股对家族企业创新效率影响机制与路径研究

在混合所有制改革和创新驱动发展战略实施背景下，国有资本“举牌”民营企业对企业创新体系的作用机制亟待研究。基于2008-2018年上市家族企业数据，从创新投入和创新产出两个视角探讨国有股权参股对家族企业创新效率的影响，根据股东资源理论分析可能的影响路径。通过Heckman两阶段模型实证发现：国有股权参股显著促进家族企业创新投入和创新产出，并最终对创新效率产生积极影响，而获取政府补贴和提升创新管理能力是两条中介路径。该结论揭示了混合所有制改革在激发民营企业创新活力中所发挥的重要作用和影响机制，为家族企业提高创新效率提供了新方向。