Why does the peso-dollar exchange rate show a depreciation trend? The role of productivity differentials

Over the last three decades, Mexico's macroeconomic policy has been driven by a sound orthodox strategy: an open economy via many trade agreements signed since the mid-1980s, a nominal exchange rate under a flexible regime since 1994, central bank autonomy, and responsible fiscal policy, among other benchmarks. Nevertheless, the exchange rate has continued on a path of depreciation against the US dollar. In this paper, we show that although an equilibrium relationship exists between the exchange rate and prices in Mexico and the US (its main commercial partner), there are other forces affecting the former. The main factor in this relentless long-term depreciation is the loss of productivity in Mexico relative to the US. In addition, we show that the extraordinary liquidity supplied by the US during the 2008 crisis caused the Mexican peso to appreciate against the dollar.     

山东省耕地后备资源变化及驱动因素分析

[目的]揭示耕地后备资源变化规律及其驱动因素是进行耕地后备资源合理保护、开发利用的重要基础,但目前对于耕地后备资源变化及驱动因素的研究较为匮乏。[方法]文章以山东省为例,基于2003年和2015年两期耕地后备资源数据库,在分析耕地后备资源时空变化的基础上,采用空间回归模型分析了其变化的驱动因素。[结果]2003~2015年期间,山东省集中连片耕地后备资源减少了30.81万hm~2,其中可开垦土地减少24.97万hm~2,可复垦土地减少5.84万hm~2。[结论]总人口、文盲率、农民人均纯收入、建设用地扩张速度、第一产业产值占总产值比重等是山东省耕地后备资源变化的显著性驱动因素,并且总人口和建设用地扩张的驱动作用最大,受教育程度和产业结构调整的作用次之,农民人均纯收入变化对耕地后备资源变化的影响最小。"宏观统筹协调,异地代补"是解决"耕地后备资源空间分布不均衡、供需不匹配",实现耕地占补平衡、高效合理的开发利用耕地后备资源的必经之路。但异地代补的数量比例和质量应严格控制,并注重对补充耕地地区的经济补偿和政策倾斜,逐步缩小与发达地区之间的差距。     

Interventions in Markets with Adverse Selection: Implications for Discount Window Stigma

I study the implications for central bank discount window stigma of a workhorse model of adverse selection in financial markets. In the model, firms (banks) need to borrow to finance a productive project. There is limited liability and firms have private information about their ability to repay their debts, which gives rise to the possibility of adverse selection. The central bank can ameliorate the impact of adverse selection by lending to firms. Discount window borrowing is observable and it may be taken as a signal of firms' credit worthiness. Under some conditions, firms borrowing from the discount window may pay higher interest rates to borrow in the market, a phenomenon often associated with the presence of stigma. I discuss these and other outcomes in detail and what they suggest about the relevance of stigma as an empirical phenomenon.     

Clinical and economic benefits of professional CGM among people with type 2 diabetes in the United States: analysis of claims and lab data

Background: It is estimated that one in 10 people in the US have a diagnosis of diabetes. Type 2 diabetes accounts for 95% of all cases in the US, with annual costs estimated to be $246 billion per year. This study investigated the impact of a glucose-measuring intervention to the burden of type 2 diabetes.

Objective: This analysis seeks to understand how professional continuous glucose monitoring (professional CGM) impacts clinical and economic outcomes when compared to patients who are not prescribed professional CGM.

Methods: This study utilized a large healthcare claims and lab dataset from the US, and identified a cohort of patients who were prescribed professional CGM as identified by CPT codes 95250 and 95251. It calculated economic and clinical outcomes 1 year before and 1 year after the use of professional CGM, using a generalized linear model.

Results: Patients who utilized professional CGM saw an improvement in hemoglobin A1C. The “difference-in-difference” calculation for A1C was shown to be –0.44%. There was no statistically significant difference in growth of total annual costs for people who used professional CGM compared to those who did not ($1,270, p?=?.08). Patients using professional CGM more than once per year had a –$3,376 difference in the growth of total costs (p?=?.05). Patients who used professional CGM while changing their diabetes treatment regimen also had a difference of –$3,327 in growth of total costs (p?=?.0023).

Conclusion: Significant clinical benefits were observed for patients who used professional CGM. Economic benefits were observed for patients who utilized professional CGM more than once within a 1-year period or who used it during a change of diabetes therapy. This suggests that professional CGM may help decrease rising trends in healthcare costs for people with type 2 diabetes, while also improving clinical outcomes.     

Counting the cost: the reserve price scheme for wool 1970‐2001

This paper provides a policy commentary on the collapse in 1991 of the Australian Reserve Price Scheme for wool. A key cause of the collapse in the Scheme was a change in the RPS's governance arrangements, which led to increased political pressures to raise prices to unsustainable levels. In addition, in this paper an estimation has been made of the direct, upfront costs of the operation of the scheme, drawing on the financial accounts of the various agencies operating the RPS and subsequent wool stockpile. This was undertaken to determine the scale of the policy failure.     

时空大数据支持的土地储备智能决策体系与应用研究

研究目的:设计土地储备智能决策体系,将土地储备决策环节进行科学化、定量化和模型化,为政府合理开展土地储备提供决策依据。研究方法:遵循科学性、实用性、先进性、开放性原则,以数据为驱动,人工智能为核心,通过基于Hadoop/Spark的大数据处理技术、多源异构数据融合技术、智能决策模型集对多源时空大数据挖掘分析。研究结果:提出了土地储备智能决策体系,研究了一套面向土地储备的决策方法集,实现对现状条件的精准刻画,对土地储备规模、结构、时序等内容的科学决策;在此基础上,研发了智能决策支持平台,将数据资源共享、现状条件评估、智能决策专题等功能集成,构建土地储备智能决策"一张图",并实现平台的自我学习和更新。研究结论:应用于宁波市实例验证,该体系有效地促进了土地储备科学智慧决策,对优化土地资源配置具有参考意义。     

自然保护区生态旅游发展对贫困农户生产经营能力的影响研究

基于云南省轿子山国家级自然保护区的调查数据,从3个维度构建农户生产经营能力指标体系,运用熵值法及多元线性回归模型研究保护区生态旅游发展对贫困农户生产经营能力的影响。结果表明:轿子山国家级自然保护区样本贫困农户生产经营能力总体处于中等水平,且呈现出区域差异性;社区社会保障缺乏和政府帮扶政策措施滞后是造成农户生产经营能力不足的主要原因;在控制“农户家庭基本特征”类别下的4个变量中,保护区开展生态旅游效果的主客观认知是影响贫困农户生产经营能力的一个重要因素,贫困农户参与保护区生态旅游相关工作正向显著影响农户生产经营能力,并对保护区生态旅游扶贫效果起到中介效应。因此,提出政府相关部门应合理规划,构建全域化生态旅游发展体系;增强基层治理水平,提供就业创业培训路径;转变观念,提升自我脱贫可持续能力等建议。     

松嫩平原自然宜垦性及耕地后备资源开发潜力

［目的］为保障我国粮食安全，为耕地后备资源的合理开发利用提供科学依据，同时完善中国区域耕地后备资源自然开发潜力方面的研究。［方法］文章从自然适宜性的角度出发，选取了地形、气候、土地类型和土壤4个方面15个评价因子，采用层次分析、专家打分等方法确定评价因子权重，构建松嫩平原宜垦性评价指标体系。［结果］（1）1980—2015年松嫩平原自然宜垦性整体较好，最适宜垦区与较适宜垦区占松嫩平原面积的5068%，分布在松嫩平原腹地大部地区，中部、中北部、中南部等地；(2)松嫩平原已开垦耕地资源中，持续利用耕地占松嫩平原面积的4814%，空间上与宜垦程度高值区高度吻合；(3)新增耕地占区域面积的126%，以中度适宜垦区和较适宜垦区为主；(4)松嫩平原耕地后备资源占松嫩平原土地面积的1556%，在松嫩平原西部地区、中部和东北部地区均有分布，耕地后备资源中度及以上宜垦区占后备资源总量的7465%。［结论］目前大庆市和白城市可开发耕地后备资源最为丰富，但其中轻度及不适宜开垦区所占比例大，开发难度较大； 松原市可开发资源相对丰富且开垦难度小。     

完善我国应急财政资金管理的途径

应急财政资金管理是我国建设应急管理体系的重要环节。当前我国的应急财政资金使用中存在常规资金规模偏小、筹集比例不合理、资金管理不完善、资金使用缺乏监督等问题。应从完善应急财政资金预算管理制度,拓宽筹资渠道,优化应急财政资金的拨付和使用程序,健全应急财政资金的监管制度等方面,完善我国应急财政管理。     

基于补偿检验理论的铁矿石储备规模探讨

建立储备是化解资源供应风险的有效措施之一,储备规模的大小是其中的核心问题,规模过大则成本过高,有可能得不偿失,规模太小,又难以发挥应有作用。考虑到储备一般情况下应当是政府向社会提供的公共产品,是一项公共政策,因此,西方福利经济学中卡尔多—希克斯补偿检验理论应当作为储备制度安排的依据之一。2005年以来铁矿石进口价格连续上涨,使得铁矿石供应风险问题引起了社会各界的广泛关注,本文基于卡尔多—希克斯补偿检验理论,通过建立成本—效益分析模型,对铁矿石储备的合理规模进行探讨。