基于状态空间模型的政产学研资协同创新四螺旋影响因素实证研究

在三螺旋理论框架下，搭建政府、产业、大学、研究机构和资本部门四螺旋模型，运用文献归纳法选取多元主体协同创新6类影响因素，以主体间协同程度测度结果为因变量基础，利用状态空间模型动态分析这些因素影响方向、大小和趋势。实证结果表明，中国经济因素表现为促进作用持续提升；中国技术市场规模和创新产业规模表现为先抑制后促进，且促进作用不断提升；中国产品市场需求和创新投入表现为抑制作用持续提升；中国创新产出在时间上表现为促进作用先提升后下降并最终稳定的状态。最后，提出不同政策建议，以促进中国政产学研资协同创新体系后续发展。     

Persistence of Price–Cost Margin and Technical Efficiency in the Indonesian Food and Beverage Industry

Abstract

This research investigates the persistence of price–cost margin (PCM) and technical efficiency (TE) of firms and the relation between these two factors in 44 subsectors of the Indonesian food and beverage industry in the period 1980–2014. Data envelopment analysis with a bootstrapping approach is applied to estimate TE. An autoregressive model, accounting for endogeneity, is applied to estimate the persistence coefficients of PCM and TE. A cross-sectional regression model is also applied to estimate the relation between the persistence of the PCM and the persistence of TE. The results show that for these food and beverage firms, high PCM and low TE persist. Furthermore, the persistence of PCM negatively affects the persistence of TE in the industry.     

Multi-criteria analysis of economic complexity transition in emerging economies: The case of Paraguay

Like many emerging economies, the productive structure of the Paraguayan economy is not complex. It relies extensively on low value-added activities in the primary sector such as agriculture and cattle ranching. These activities have a lower return in terms of economic and social benefits than other potential productive activities and do not contribute to increasing capability accumulation. In this paper we present a tool to support the identification of strategic sectors and products which if taken advantage of, could leverage development through the accumulation of productive capabilities. Our guiding question is: Which productive sectors should be promoted to foster economic development in Paraguay through a transition towards a more complex economy? To answer this question, we use concepts from the Economic Complexity theory to identify new products and cluster them based on the Product Space methodology for the determination of potential products and combine it with the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) for multicriteria analysis considering multiple criteria. In doing so, our proposed methodology contributes to both the Economic Complexity and the AHP literature. Through this combination, we tackle the multiplicity of juxtaposed criteria, which should be considered at the prioritization stage in the crafting of economic restructuring measures according to the country's capabilities. Our evaluation showed that the combination of the approaches is useful, and for Paraguay's case, it helped identify sectors, which, if promoted by policymakers, could help boost economic development through complexity and capability accumulation.     

央行货币政策报告文本信息、宏观经济与股票市场

本文利用金融情感词典和文本分析技术,分析中国人民银行货币政策执行报告的文本情绪、文本相似度和文本可读性等多维文本信息,刻画央行货币政策执行报告的文本特征,探究货币政策报告的文本信息与宏观经济和股票市场的关系。实证研究发现,货币政策报告的文本情绪的改善会引起显著为正的股票市场价格反应,报告文本相似度的增加会引起股票市场波动性的显著降低,报告可读性对公布后股票市场的波动性影响不显著。货币政策报告文本情绪还与诸多宏观经济指标显著相关。进一步研究发现,引起股票市场显著反应的是报告文本情绪中反映货币政策指引的部分,而反映宏观经济历史状态的部分对股票市场的影响不显著。本文从文本大数据分析角度证明了我国央行沟通的有效性,对国内央行沟通相关研究形成了有益补充。     

Cluster Analysis for mixed data: An application to credit risk evaluation

Credit risk is one of the main risks faced by a bank to provide financial products and services to clients. To evaluate the financial performance of clients, several scoring methodologies have been proposed, which are based mostly on quantitative indicators. This paper highlights the relevance of both quantitative and qualitative features of applicants and proposes a new methodology based on mixed data clustering techniques. Indeed, cluster analysis may prove particularly useful in the estimation of credit risk. Traditionally, clustering concentrates only on quantitative or qualitative data at a time; however, since credit applicants are characterized by mixed personal features, a cluster analysis specific for mixed data can lead to discover particularly informative patterns, estimating the risk associated with credit granting.     

An integrated SWOT based fuzzy AHP and fuzzy MARCOS methodology for digital transformation strategy analysis in airline industry

Driven by business strategies, digital transformation (DT) facilitates dramatic change in air passenger behavior. This study aims to determine and analyze different DT strategies (DTSs) with the help of an integrated SWOT-based fuzzy AHP-MARCOS methodology that is proposed for the first time in the literature for this purpose. This methodology is validated with a case study concerning the airline industry in Turkey. The weights of the SWOT factors are determined with the fuzzy AHP method. The fuzzy MARCOS approach is used to select the most suitable DTS. The most appropriate strategy is obtained as “focusing on differentiated digital customer experience and service quality by the adaptation of business models to DT to provide benefits”.     

研发市场界定的适用困境及应对策略

研发市场是经营者在特定产品和技术竞争中形成的市场范围。由于研发活动的不确定性，反垄断执法机关在界定研发市场时难以准确厘定市场边界，更深层次的原因在于维持竞争与激励研发的关系尚不明晰。研发竞争中的垄断行为难以通过相关市场界定的方式判断其违法性，需要结合具体案情和市场条件，动态分析涉案行为是否损害产品或技术研发竞争。     

组织性格维度及表征与认知差异：员工认知视角

新经济环境下，组织性格成为企业差异化竞争优势的源泉。根据认知心理学进行研究设计，通过问卷调查获得员工认知视角下的组织性格描述性词语，利用质性分析工具进行编码，提取得到中国情境下企业组织性格的5个维度，并对不同性质企业组织的性格表征差异和不同类型员工对组织性格的认知差异进行分析。结果表明：企业组织性格可以分为创新、宜人、开放、责任、发展等5个维度，5个维度围绕情感、思想和目标3个中心构念形成完整体系，由此提出企业组织的“五型性格”框架；企业组织在性格表征与认知方面均存在差异，表明组织性格既有内生也有外生成分，从人格心理学和认知心理学角度对其进行诠释都有一定的科学依据。企业组织的性格维度及其表征与认知差异，为中国企业性格培育带来了一些重要管理启示。     

改革开放40年持续性产业升级的动力机制与路径——广东迈向高质量发展之路

产业升级是高质量发展的主要目标及核心推力。通过分阶段观测广东改革开放40年产业转型升级进程发现，广东产业转型升级的演化轨迹是一条迈向高质量发展的产业跃升之路，贯穿其中的主线是持续性产业升级。生产要素供给、市场需求、技术创新、政府干预及制度安排等四大动因相互影响、相互作用，形成动态更迭比较优势、推动产业持续升级的耦合动力机制。在国际产业分工的背景下，适应不同的阶段特征及红利条件，通过比较优势的动态化调整，广东产业发展模式由低成本要素驱动、投资驱动向创新驱动转变。站在新时代的历史起点上，广东应以全面创新驱动作为产业转型升级的动力，加快数字经济与实体经济深度融合，抢占全球价值链高端，迈向一个更高质量的发展阶段。     

基于广义价值论的内生增长理论初探

增长理论是经济学的重要部分，关系到每一个人的福利和一个国家的地位。文章运用广义价值论研究经济增长问题，以分工为切入点，把分工产生的新增利益和该利益的公平分配统一起来，论述了递增性假设之外另一条增长的可能路径。主要结论如下：（1）基于比较优势的分工交换可以持续地产生比较利益即超过自给自足收益的净收益，这一收益不依赖于技术的递增或递减变化，具有普遍持久稳定性；（2）由分工交换产生的净收益构成原始积累的重要来源，既促进了生产规模和分工范围的扩大，又支持了研发和技术进步；（3）劳动生产力任何提高的效应都通过分工交换产生的比较利益加以放大，在一个分工交换系统中，行为主体提高比较优势产品和比较劣势产品的生产力分别具有正的和负的外部性；（4）基于广义价值论的内生经济增长体现了效率与公平的统一，一个好的制度是能够保证在交易中各方的比较利益率相等，掠夺性制度不仅直接损害经济增长，也不具备长期可持续性。