Consistency of elementwise-weighted total least squares estimator in a multivariate errors-in-variables model <Emphasis Type="Bold">AX=B</Emphasis>

A multivariate measurement error model AXB is considered. The errors in [A,B] are rowwise independent, but within each row the errors may be correlated. Some of the columns are observed without errors, and in addition the error covariance matrices may differ from row to row. The total covariance structure of the errors is supposed to be known up to a scalar factor. The fully weighted total least squares estimator of X is studied, which in the case of normal errors coincides with the maximum likelihood estimator. We give mild conditions for weak and strong consistency of the estimator, when the number of rows in A increases. The results generalize the conditions of Gallo given for a univariate homoscedastic model (where B is a vector), and extend the conditions of Gleser given for the multivariate homoscedastic model. We derive the objective function for the estimator and propose an iteratively reweighted numerical procedure.Acknowledgements.A. Kukush is supported by a postdoctoral research fellowship of the Belgian office for Scientific, Technical and Cultural Affairs, promoting Scientific and Technical Collaboration with Central and Eastern Europe. S. Van Huffel is a full professor with the Katholieke Universiteit Leuven. This paper presents research results of the Belgian Programme on Interuniversity Poles of Attraction (IUAP Phase V-22), initiated by the Belgian State, Prime Ministers Office-Federal Office for Scientific, Technical and Cultural Affairs, of the Concerted Research Action (GOA) projects of the Flemish Government MEFISTO-666 (Mathematical Engineering for Information and Communication Systems Technology), of the IDO/99/03 project (K.U. Leuven) Predictive computer models for medical classification problems using patient data and expert knowledge, of the FWO projects G.0200.00, G.0078.01 and G.0270.02. The scientific responsibility is assumed by its authors. The authors would like to thank Maria Luisa Rastello and Amedeo Premoli for bringing the EW-TLS problem to their attention. The authors are grateful to two anonymous referees for the valuable comments.     

Keynesian theorising during hard times: stock-flow consistent models as an unexplored 'frontier' of Keynesian macroeconomics

This paper argues that the stock-flow consistent approach tomacroeconomic modelling (SFCA) is a natural outcome of the pathtaken by Keynesian macroeconomic thought in the 1960s and 1970s,a theoretical ‘frontier’ that remained largely unexploredwith the end of Keynesian academic hegemony. It does so in twosteps. First, it phrases the representative views of Davidson,Godley, Minsky and Tobin as different ‘closures’of the same (SFC) accounting framework, calling attention totheir similarities and logical implications. Second, it discussesunresolved issues within this approach and how it differs from‘modern’ theorising.     

我国稀土外贸管制实施效果及困境分析

本文分析了我国对于稀土产品出口外贸管制面临的几大瓶颈问题：内外贸政策的一致性、价格传导机制影响实体经济、环境保护及可持续发展问题。通过分析发现,出口限制有效地改善了出口的价格劣势,但是国内市场行业集中度的提高和企业分散经营同时并存;管制让市场形成了价格上涨的预期,引致企业之间的无序扩张,放大了产业链的“牛鞭效应”并最终损害了行业利益;虽然能源利用效率得到提高,但对环境污染问题却有加重趋势,尤其是在稀土金属矿采选行业。最后提出需要转变监管方式,以资源税、环境税替代关税等措施;让市场信息充分流动．减少行政干预,改变国有企业独大的现状：加强环境保护的监管等。     

养老保险体制改革的动态时间一致性研究

本文构建了一个动态时间一致性模型,并利用中国数据对养老保险体系的动态时间一致性做了经验检验和动态预测。研究发现,按照帕累托效率标准对养老保险体系的参数或结构进行调整只是手段,而提高动态时间一致性才是目的。一项养老改革只有在能够同时增进社会福利和个人投资收益率时,才符合动态时间一致性原则;经验检验表明,1978～2012年间,现收现付制向基金制转轨是不符合动态时间一致性原则的;而1994年之后,将统筹比率控制在06～075之间,则有利于提高养老保险体系的动态时间一致性。预测结果表明,中国政府在2014～2037年和2038～2044年间应将统筹比率分别控制在06～09和025～06之间。     

存在遗漏变量时的内生性研究

存在遗漏变量时回归系数的估计是计量经济学的一个重要内容。本文讨论单方程计量经济模型中随机解释变量的内生性,指出了目前的计量经济理论所存在的问题,提出了普通最小二乘估计一致性判别的新方法,并证明了存在遗漏变量情况下的普通最小二乘估计仍是一致估计。     

基于宏观资产负债表的居民债务问题及其风险研究

本文从宏观资产负债表的编制出发,对比世界主要经济体的居民债务演变,有效度量中国居民部门的债务杠杆水平。通过宏观部门经济间的关联,构造基于存量-流量一致的部门结构化均衡模型,剖析居民部门债务风险的传导机制,分析货币、财政和地产政策在居民债务风险防范中的作用。结果表明:中国居民部门金融资产负债率和偿债比例偏高,偿债压力逐步加大。但适中的资产负债率和较高的潜在经济增速为我国居民部门债务风险的化解提供了足够的空间。紧缩性货币政策有利于居民部门去杠杆化,但由此引发的消费减速和经济下行将导致企业和政府部门债务攀升;减税较政府直接支出更能激发消费内需、降低居民和企业债务杠杆,同时,长期经济的好转利于政府债务风险稳定。紧缩性地产政策虽然有助于长期经济结构的调整,但需防范短期经济下滑。