管理层权力制衡强度、债务约束与企业创新投资

企业创新是国家经济可持续增长的关键，受到管理层意愿的影响，因而需要对内部经营者的权力进行制衡。以2010-2018年我国A股上市公司为研究样本，实证检验管理层权力制衡强度对企业创新投资的影响，以及不同债务约束情境下高商业信用配置、高负债水平的调节效应，此外，还考察了产权性质的差异化影响。研究表明，管理层权力制衡强度越大，企业创新投资水平越高；高商业信用强化了该促进作用，而高负债水平弱化了该促进作用。进一步研究发现，管理层权力制衡强度与企业创新投资的关系在民企中更显著；国企能够更好地获得和运用商业信用，使其高商业信用对该关系的强化效应更显著；民企具有更强的债务约束，其高负债水平对该关系的弱化效应更明显。     

Toward a new business model of retail industry: The role of brand experience and brand authenticity

While the customer-to-manufacturer (C2M) business model has received increasing attention as a new business model for e-commerce and retail industry, little is still known about it and the effect of its approach. This study aims to understand how brand-related stimuli in C2M environments affect customer responses as the worldwide COVID-19 pandemic. The outcomes reveal that the Sensory, affective, and intellectual aspects of brand experience positively influence brand authenticity. Brand authenticity has a positive effect on behavioral intention, such as reuse intention and word-of-mouth. Additionally, this research finds that social presence moderates the association between the sensory aspect of brand experience. Thus, this study can suggest a C2M business model as a means of sustainable operation of the retail industry to both researchers and practitioners in relation to the retail industry.     

团队科学创造力的提升需重视团队成就目标导向——被调节的中介效应

基于创造力成分等多维理论，构建以团队反馈寻求行为为中介变量，团队凝聚力为调节变量的被调节的中介效应模型，以期深入解释创新团队成就目标导向如何影响其团队科学创造力。基于129个理工科大学生科技创新团队数据，研究结果表明，团队学习目标导向和团队表现目标导向分别与团队科学创造力有显著的正向和负向关系；团队反馈寻求行为在团队成就目标导向与团队科学创造力间起部分中介作用；团队凝聚力负向调节团队反馈寻求行为与团队科学创造力间的关系，并弱化了团队成就目标导向通过团队反馈寻求行为对团队科学创造力的间接影响。结论对提高科技创新团队科学创造力有一定指导价值。     

Customer purchase forecasting for online tourism: A data-driven method with multiplex behavior data

Online tourism has received increasing attention from scholars and practitioners due to its growing contribution to the economy. While related issues have been studied, research on forecasting customer purchases and the influence of forecasting variables, online tourism is still in its infancy. Therefore, this paper aims to develop a data-driven method to achieve two objectives: (1) provide an accurate purchase forecasting model for online tourism and (2) analyze the influence of behavior variables as predictors of online tourism purchases. Based on the real-world multiplex behavior data, the proposed method can predict online tourism purchases accurately by machine learning algorithms. As for the practical implications, the influence of behavior variables is ranked according to the predictive marginal value, and how these important variables affect the final purchase is discussed with the help of partial dependence plots. This research contributes to the purchase forecasting literature and has significant practical implications.     

众创空间类型如何塑造创业服务行为？基于制度逻辑视角的分析

文章基于制度逻辑视角,以浙江省746家众创空间为样本,分析了政府、高校、民营企业三类主体设立的众创空间和创业服务行为选择的关系。研究发现：（1）制度逻辑对众创空间的创业服务行为选择具有塑造作用,持有行政逻辑的政府型众创空间会将时间更多的分配给办公场所服务,而持有专业逻辑的高校型和持有公司逻辑的民企型众创空间,则分别会将时间更多的分配给培训咨询服务和投融资服务。上述发现在替换了其它两种因变量测量指标后依然成立。（2）国家级认证会使民企型众创空间显著减少在投融资服务上的时间分配比重,而显著增加在办公场所服务和培训咨询服务上的时间分配比重,这种调节效应在另外两类众创空间中并不显著,在替换了省级认证后结果依然成立。这表明,相较于公司逻辑,政府逻辑和专业逻辑更具稳定性,更不易受高阶制度因素的影响和干扰。文章拓展了制度逻辑和众创空间创业服务行为关系的理论认识,为创业者的众创空间入驻决策以及政府针对众创空间的政策制定提供了实践启示。     

The effects of credit default swaps on corporate investment

ABSTRACT

This paper examines how credit default swaps (CDS) affect the corporate investment of the referenced entities. We document a significant reduction in corporate investment after CDS trading, a result that is robust to alternative model specifications and a set of endogeneity tests. Our findings of the increased firm risk and cost of capital support the costly external capital channel. The cross-sectional variations in CDS effects demonstrate that both reduced monitoring and the empty creditor problem might be the underlying forces driving the costly external capital channel. Our additional analysis implies that CDS trading is associated with an enhancement in investment efficiency for firms that are prone to overinvestment.     

财政政策对军民融合企业创新绩效的影响——创新投入的中介效应分析

我国军民融合战略的提出旨在促进科技创新和经济效率提升,保障国防和国家安全。基于2008—2019年我国(内地)276家上市军民融合企业面板数据，运用当期、滞后期多元回归模型和中介效应模型，实证探究财政政策对军民融合企业创新绩效的影响机制。结果表明：财政补助对企业当期创新绩效以及滞后期创新科技绩效起显著促进作用，对滞后期创新经济绩效没有显著影响；税收优惠对企业当期和滞后期创新绩效均具有显著促进作用；创新投入对当期及滞后期创新绩效均具有显著促进作用，但对滞后期的影响更加显著。创新投入的中介效应在财政补助对当期创新科技绩效和滞后期创新绩效的影响过程中显著，在税收优惠对当期和滞后期创新绩效的影响过程中显著。其中，税收优惠完全通过创新投入对当期创新科技绩效产生正向影响。     

经济政策不确定性、区域经济复杂度与企业创新行为

构建包含宏观经济政策不确定性指标、区域经济复杂度和上市公司特征变量“宏观-区域-企业”的实证面板数据，在理论分析经济政策不确定性对企业创新行为作用机理的基础上，以区域经济复杂度为视角，对经济政策不确定性与企业创新行为作用机制进行再检验。研究发现：经济政策不确定性对企业创新存在正向激励综合效应，同时，区域经济复杂度不仅能够促进企业创新行为，而且能够强化经济政策不确定性对企业创新行为的影响即抑制负向作用而强化正向作用。考虑内生性，通过替换核心变量检验稳健性以保证研究结论可靠，并且，研究企业特征发现，高科技企业和非高科技企业存在差异。     

Do significant risk warnings in annual reports increase corporate bond credit spreads? Evidence from China

Based on listed companies issuing bonds on the Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges from 2007 to 2017, this study analyzes the relationship between significant risk warnings in Chinese companies’ annual reports and corporate bond credit spreads. The main findings are as follows. First, in the Chinese market, “substantial warnings of significant risks” can significantly improve corporate bond credit spreads, reflecting the risk-warning effect; second, state-owned property rights weaken this effect, which only pertains to listed companies with poor risk management and low information quality; third, significant risk warnings increase investors’ heterogeneous beliefs, also affecting credit spreads; and fourth, through textual analysis, it is found that the corporate bond credit spread is greater when the disclosed risk factors are more pessimistic and less similar to those of the previous year. The findings of this paper help to enrich the literature on credit spreads and risk disclosure.     

On credit and output: Is the supply of credit relevant?

The consensus that changes in the supply of credit were irrelevant to making monetary policy decisions existed among macroeconomists during the second half of the twentieth century. Transmission of shocks to the real economy through changes in the supply of credit, however, played an important role in the recent U.S. financial crisis. This paper explores the extent to which policymakers should consider changes in the supply of credit when making forecasts and monetary policy decisions. More specifically, it considers whether a measure of real credit balances offers consistent and stable information, beyond that of a real interest rate and real money balances, about future output gaps during the U.S. post-war era. Results yield evidence that changes in real credit balances are the only variable, among those considered, to provide consistent and stable information about future output gaps over the entire sample period. Each information variable, however, provides relatively little value added for forecasting future output gaps, beyond a simple autoregressive model. To improve upon forecasts and monetary policy decisions, policymakers therefore should consider a broader range of information variables and occasionally reassess the relative weightings assigned to each.