股份制取代合作制是历史的必然——对中国农村金融制度选择的思考

目前，合作金融在中国遇到了种种困惑，这不是合作金融本身的错。一方面中国从来就没有建立过真正的合作金融；另一方面合作金融与中国当前的经济环境也不相适应。而那种异化了的合作金融既没有存在的必要，也没有存在的可能。股份制取代合作制是一种历史的必然。     

金融信用之法律制度支撑——一个法经济学视角的解读

金融活动的存在与正常运转有赖于良好的信用制度与法治环境,金融信用是金融业赖以生存的基础。良好的金融信用依靠多种因素的支持,法律制度的健全是关键。本文主要从法经济学的视角提出构建完善的金融信用法律制度体系,以此防范金融信用风险,保障国民经济的增长与发展,进而促进社会的安全与稳定。     

Does direct foreign investment affect domestic credit constraints?

Firms in developing countries cite credit constraints as one of their primary obstacles to investment. Direct foreign investment may ease credit constraints by bringing in scarce capital. Alternatively, if foreign firms borrow heavily from domestic banks, they may crowd local firms out of domestic capital markets. Using firm data from the Ivory Coast, we test whether: (1) domestic firms are more credit constrained than foreign firms, and (2) whether borrowing by foreign firms exacerbates domestic firm credit constraints. Results provide support for both hypotheses. We also find that state-owned enterprises (SOEs) are less financially constrained than other domestic enterprises.     

Credit risk and sustainable debt: a model and estimations of why the Euro is stable in the long-run

Sustainable debt has become the key issue in rating of private as well as sovereign debtors. The problem of how to estimate sustainable debt has also been at the center of the debate over the Asian 1997–1998 financial crisis. If the external value of the currency depends on the external debt of a country, it is necessary to estimate the creditworthiness of the country. This paper studies credit risk and sustainable debt in the context of a dynamic model. For a dynamic growth model with an additional equation for the evolution of debt, we demonstrate of how to compute sustainable debt and creditworthiness. The model is estimated by employing time series data for the core countries of the Euro-area. The computations show that the Euro-area has large external assets. Using time series methods, the sustainability of external debt (assets) is estimated for those core countries of the Euro-area. Those estimations show that the Euro will be a stable currency in the long-run.     

导游专业计算机教学中任务性学习的研究与实践

素质教育的一个重要部分就是学生综合应用能力及探究能力的培养。笔者针对导游专业的特点,在计算机基础教学中引入任务性学习方式,改善了教学效果,提高了该专业学生的计算机综合应用能力及自主探究能力。     

Forecasting recovery rates on non-performing loans with machine learning

We compare the performance of a wide set of regression techniques and machine-learning algorithms for predicting recovery rates on non-performing loans, using a private database from a European debt collection agency. We find that rule-based algorithms such as Cubist, boosted trees, and random forests perform significantly better than other approaches. In addition to loan contract specificities, predictors that refer to the bank recovery process — prior to the portfolio’s sale to a debt collector — are also shown to enhance forecasting performance. These variables, derived from the time series of contacts to defaulted clients and client reimbursements to the bank, help all algorithms better identify debtors with different repayment ability and/or commitment, and in general those with different recovery potential.     

Strategic freedom, constraint, and symmetry in one-period markets with cash and credit payment

Summary. In order to explain in a systematic way why certain combinations of market, financial, and legal structures may be intrinsic to certain capabilities to exchange real goods, we introduce criteria for abstracting the qualitative functions of markets. The criteria involve the number of strategic freedoms the combined institutions, considered as formalized strategic games, present to traders, the constraints they impose, and the symmetry with which those constraints are applied to the traders. We pay particular attention to what is required to make these strategic market games well-defined, and to make various solutions computable by the agents within the bounds on information and control they are assumed to have. As an application of these criteria, we present a complete taxonomy of the minimal one-period exchange economies with symmetric information and inside money. A natural hierarchy of market forms is observed to emerge, in which institutionally simpler markets are often found to be more suitable to fewer and less-diversified traders, while the institutionally richer markets only become functional as the size and diversity of their users gets large.Received: 5 June 2003, Revised: 18 November 2003, JEL Classification Numbers: C7, G10, G20, L10, D40, D50. Correspondence to: Eric SmithEric Smith, Martin Shubik: We are grateful to Lloyd Shapley, Duncan Foley, and Doyne Farmer for discussions in the course of this work.     

Structure,Clearinghouses and Symmetry

We introduce and justify a taxonomy for the structure of markets and minimal institutions which appear in constructing minimally complex trading structures to perform the functions of price formation, settlement and payments. Each structure is presented as a playable strategic market game and is examined for its efficiency, the number of degrees of freedom and the symmetry properties of the structure     

安徽省房地产市场信用建设研究

“以诚实守信为荣,以见利忘义为耻“被列为“八荣八耻“之一.安徽省房地产市场信用建设研究,是社会主义荣辱观大讨论在安徽房地产领域的具体体现.房地产市场信用建设不仅是整顿和规范房地产市场的治本之策,也是落实以人为本的科学发展观的需要和着力建设和谐社会的需要,只有安徽省房地产业整体诚信建设得到提升,才能实现安徽省房地产市场跨越式的发展.本文结合安徽省房地产市场信用建设的实际情况,分析了安徽省房地产市场信用建设存在的主要问题,剖析了造成房地产市场信用缺失的原因,并提出了相应的对策和建议.