On cox processes and credit risky securities

A framework is presented for modeling defaultable securities and credit derivatives which allows for dependence between market risk factors and credit risk. The framework reduces the technical issues of modeling credit risk to the same issues faced when modeling the ordinary term structure of interest rates. It is shown how to generalize a model of Jarrow, Lando and Turnbull (1997) to allow for stochastic transition intensities between rating categories and into default. This generalization can handle contracts with payments explicitly linked to ratings. It is also shown how to obtain a term structure model for all different rating categories simultaneously and how to obtain an affine-like structure. An implementation is given in a simple one factor model in which the affine structure gives closed form solutions.  

Electricity Prices and Power Derivatives: Evidence from the Nordic Power Exchange

This paper examines the importance of the regular pattern in the behavior of electricity prices, and its implications for the purposes of derivative pricing. We analyze the Nordic Power Exchange's spot, futures, and forward prices. We conclude that the seasonal systematic pattern throughout the year, in particular, is of crucial importance in explaining the shape of the futures/forward curve. Moreover, in the context of the oneand two factor models analyzed in this paper, a simple sinusoidal functionis adequate in order capture the seasonal pattern of the features and forwardcurve directly implied by the seasonal behavior of spot electricity prices.  

衍生产品使用对公司价值和业绩影响的实证检验

本文在回顾企业使用衍生产品相关理论的基础上，分析了中国上市公司使用衍生产品现状，并以深沪两市有色金属加工或生产行业上市公司为研究样本，实证检验中国上市公司使用衍生产品进行风险管理是否提高了公司价值和业绩，结果发现中国企业使用衍生产品并没有像西方理论所认为的那样可以提升公司价值，其原因在于国内企业使用衍生产品的负面影响抵消了其正面作用，所以无法起到提升公司价值的作用。在此基础上，文章提出了相关的政策建议。  

LIBOR and swap market models and measures

A self-contained theory is presented for pricing and hedging LIBOR and swap derivatives by arbitrage. Appropriate payoff homogeneity and measurability conditions are identified which guarantee that a given payoff can be attained by a self-financing trading strategy. LIBOR and swap derivatives satisfy this condition, implying they can be priced and hedged with a finite number of zero-coupon bonds, even when there is no instantaneous saving bond. Notion of locally arbitrage-free price system is introduced and equivalent criteria established. Stochastic differential equations are derived for term structures of forward libor and swap rates, and shown to have a unique positive solution when the percentage volatility function is bounded, implying existence of an arbitrage-free model with such volatility specification. The construction is explicit for the lognormal LIBOR and swap “market models”, the former following Musiela and Rutkowski (1995). Primary examples of LIBOR and swap derivatives are discussed and appropriate practical models suggested for each.  

场外金融衍生品市场监管的国际实践与启示

近年来，全球场外金融衍生品交易的快速发展及次贷危机的爆发暴露出场外金融衍生品市场监管的缺陷和风险管理的不足。我国场外金融衍生品市场尚处于发展初期，如何构建有效的监管体系确保市场健康发展成为我国金融市场建设中面临的重要问题。该文立足于当今国际场外衍生品市场的监管实践，以次贷危机为视角分析场外衍生品市场监管体系的薄弱、不足及将来的监管动向，在此基础上提出了我国场外衍生品市场监管的政策建议。  

信用违约风险传染建模

在信用组合中,企业的违约是相互随机依赖的。除了来自宏观经济因素的影响,即因果传染;还有一种影响来自于企业间的直接相互关系,我们称其为信用违约传染。在目前,席卷全球的次贷风暴,就是一个信用风险传染的实例。到目前为止,人们尝试了从不同角度为违约传染建模,特别是从简约模型角度出发。本文从结构模型角度出发,为信用违约传染建模。并在此模型基础上,分析其对信用衍生品定价的影响。  

金融衍生产品发展及其有效管理

随着我国金融自由化及汇率、利率改革,金融衍生产品发展步伐日益加快。在国内金融衍生产品市场存在基础性缺陷的条件下,金融衍生产品的内在风险因素将有可能转化为系统风险,故要在“有节制发展”的指导思想下对金融衍生产品进行有效管理。  

信用衍生品对货币政策传导效应的影响

选取美国1981~2008年的数据,研究信用衍生品发展对货币政策传导效应的影响。通过运用协整回归、格兰杰因果检验及方差分解等实证分析方法的研究表明,信用衍生品的发展弱化了货币政策的效果,增大了货币政策时滞的不确定性。因此,中央银行制订货币政策时应考虑信用衍生品的因素。  

美国次贷危机与金融制度重构

美国次贷危机暴露出的种种问题表明,系统性风险的来源已经发生了变化,而金融基础制度的安排,无论是国际金融风险监测预警框架,还是监管制度、会计标准和评级体系,却未跟上金融市场的发展。为了恢复投资人信心,提升金融市场效率,亟需重构金融制度。  

世界黄金期货市场、工具与法规政策环境的比较分析

本文比较了世界主要黄金期货市场、投资工具与各国黄金市场法规政策环境,分析了不同的市场条件、法规政策环境对本国黄金期货市场发展产生的影响,探讨了成为国际性黄金期货市场应具备的基本要素:现货市场发展程度、市场规模、现货商影响力对黄金衍生工具的发展产生重要影响;外汇管制政策和进出口政策对确定本国黄金期货市场是国际性市场还是区域性市场起到关键性作用;黄金市场流通、增值税、监管政策对确定本国各类黄金市场交易的活跃度产生关键性作用。