声誉机制、信任机制与小额信贷

小额信贷之所以在不需要抵押担保的情况下也能为借款者放款,究其原因,除了贷款者所实施的信贷规范起到了降低风险的作用以外,建立在"声誉效应"基础上的信任机制作用的发挥起到了关键性的作用,如果借贷双方以及借款联保小组成员间缺乏基本的信任,那么合作行为是不会出现的.本文对建立在声誉效应基础上的信任机制所发挥的作用进行动态博弈分析,在此基础上根据实地调研的数据进行实证剖析,提出了通过借贷双方长期博弈建立信任关系、不断投入资源以维护信任机制、发挥农业保险与专业组织的作用降低农户经营风险等政策建议.  

高技术企业联盟所有权配置动态博弈与实证研究

高技术企业通过联盟可以获得技术诀窍,分享合作剩余,但所有权配置对联盟合作绩效产生重要影响。不完全合同框架下的动态博弈模型与实证分析表明,拥有控制权是企业披露诀窍的基本条件,企业的诀窍披露和努力投入决策会因所有权结构的不同发生改变,这对探索联盟科学治理途径,提高企业合作创新绩效具有重要启示和指导意义。  

关于煤电矛盾的思考——基于煤企、电企、政府的三方博弈分析

煤电矛盾由来已久,近期煤炭价格的持续下跌导致了煤电矛盾的激化。文章在分析煤电矛盾由来的基础上,建立煤厂、电厂以及政府的静态博弈模型,分析后,得出最优选择。继而,分析基于三者的动态博弈模型,并结合静态、动态模型得出社会效用最大化时选择,并进行了深入思考。  

我国货币政策的信贷传导效果分析——基于商业银行与中小企业的博弈视角

信贷渠道是我国货币政策传导的主要途径,其传导效果依赖于企业对银行贷款的依赖性。基于我国中小企业对银行贷款的依赖性较低这一现实状况,本文运用不完全信息动态博弈模型,分析了商业银行与中小企业之间的信贷博弈,结果表明,在紧缩的政策下,并不是银行＂惜贷＂,而是企业＂惜借＂而转向民间渠道,信贷渠道对于投资的调控力度大大减弱;相反,在扩张政策下,中小企业都＂抢贷＂,信贷渠道对于投资的扩张效应就大大增强。这样就造成了信贷渠道传导效果的扭曲,导致货币政策易放难收。本文继而对2008年至2011年我国货币政策与银行新增贷款规模进行观测,结果与理论相符。最后,本文对这一现状提出相关的政策建议。  

后危机时代中资银行对外扩张模式选择的博弈分析

本文分别从完全信息动态博弈和不完全信息动态博弈这两个角度，对银行新建投资和并购两种对外投资模式的选择进行了分析，从理论上验证了并购是中资银行拓展海外市场的理性选择。并结合中资银行已开展的海外并购活动，得出后危机时代中资银行施行“走出去”战略的启示。  

Strategic market games with cyclic endowments

We consider an infinite horizon cash-in-advance market economy with symmetric agents. In each stage, a representative agent receives an independent, random endowment from one of k known distributions. The endowment distribution changes cyclically across stages. We suppose that a central bank sets a fixed, nominal interest rate for both borrowing and investing. In equilibrium, the expected rate of inflation across each cycle of length k is strictly greater with random endowments from cyclic distributions than with deterministic endowments.   

改革预期、动态博弈与专项中央银行票据兑付

专项票据是新一轮农村信用社改革中主要的资金支持方式。本文通过分析认为,中央银行在专项票据兑付考核中建立的威胁具有不完全可置信,农村信用社对改革及专项票据的兑付存有强烈的预期,专项票据兑付是中央银行与农村信用社间的完全但不完美信息动态博弈,博弈的结果取决于中央银行设立的威胁的可信性,较低的威胁将引致农村信用社较高的作假行为,达不到花钱买机制的改革目标。为此,中央银行要提高威胁的置信度,降低农村信用社对专项票据兑付的预期,激励农村信用社通过真实努力深化改革,实现改革方案设计的目标。  

How Does Information Disclosure Affect Bank Systemic Risk in the Presence of a Deposit Insurance System?

ABSTRACT

This article establishes a dynamic game with incomplete information to theoretically analyze the influence mechanism of information disclosure on systemic risk in the presence of a deposit insurance system. To verify the mechanism, we use panel data on 247 global banks in 41 countries during the period 2006 to 2015 in an empirical analysis. Our article finds that a high degree of information disclosure can reduce deposit insurance premiums and weaken the negative incentive from a bailout by regulatory authorities. Moreover, the effect of deposit insurance on financial stability is not apparent, but the synergistic effect of deposit insurance and information disclosure reduces bank systemic risk. Furthermore, different deposit insurance designs affect bank behavior, so it is crucial for bank supervisors to create proper deposit insurance systems, which are helpful in strengthening market discipline and preventing moral hazard thus contributing to a stable financial environment. Therefore, under the deposit insurance system, regulatory authorities should strive to improve the standard of information disclosure to ensure systemic stability.  

A Dynamic Game Theory Analysis about the Listed Company＇s Information Disclose

上市公司的信息披露可以看做一个涉及多个当事人的复杂博弈。本文通过博弈论的动态博弈方法分析了上市公司信息披露的过程，并提供了四阶段的动态博弈模型：一阶段分析表明上市公司管理者在无外部约束的情况下必然会选择“夸大”型信息披露方式；二阶段分析表明尽管审计公司可以拒绝上市公司虚假的信息披露，但这种威胁是不可信的；三阶段分析模型在监管者加入后对上市公司的威胁成为可信的，上市公司会进行诚实的信息披露；四阶段分析表明寻租的存在会使上市公司能够继续从事“夸大”型信息披露方式，并造成了社会资源的浪费。最后本文加入了不确定性的讨论并提出相关的建议。  

The unsung impact of currency risk on the performance of international real property investment

The paper revisits the currency risk debate to ascertain the statistical significance of currency risk on the return of international real property investment, especially in a period of increased exchange rate volatility. After statistical analyses of the returns of a portfolio of office investments in seven Asia Pacific cities over the 1986 to 2007 period, it was found that currency risk had a statistically significant positive impact on the performance of the portfolio of office investments. This is confirmed by the results of stochastic dominance test. If the results of this study are verified by subsequent studies, and the past reliably presages the future, they would imply that investors holding portfolios of real property investments in the sample markets might not need to be unduly concerned with currency risk.