Entry in contests with incomplete information: Theory and experiments

This paper studies entry decisions in contests with private values. Potential contestants observe their value and the common opportunity cost of entry, and make entry decisions simultaneously. Theory predicts that whether or not contestants are informed of the number of entrants prior to choosing their expenditures has no effect on entry or aggregate expenditures. We test these assertions in our experiments. We find substantial over-entry in both information structures. However, entry is higher when contestants are informed. Since expenditures do not, on average, differ across information structures, aggregate expenditure is also higher when contestants are informed. Contestants earn on average less than the opportunity cost of entry.     

Volatility dynamics under an endogenous Markov-switching framework: a cross-market approach

This study uses an endogenous Markov-switching framework to examine the interrelatedness of the volatility dynamics of the US and Korean markets. Previous literature assumes that the US market implied volatility index is exogenous to the Korean implied volatility index. Here, we allow for correlations between the US and Korean variables and suggest two types of endogeneity, namely endogeneity in the regressors and in the regime-switching probabilities. The estimation results show that both types of endogeneity are present in the US variables and that the parameter estimates are quite different when endogeneity is considered, indicating a serious endogeneity bias in the parameter estimates. The results of the endogeneity test for the regressors show that the effects of global shocks are often persistent and may last for as long as six periods. Sub-period analyses indicate that the degrees of endogeneity were especially strong during the global financial crisis.     

产业集群内生性集体行动影响因素案例研究与效度检验

基于利益集团等多重主流理论视角和半开放性编码技术的部分探索性案例研究，发现产业集群内生性集体行动受到内生需求、长期导向、本地嵌入、政策激励、同行反应、协会治理、集群规模和集群类型等因素的综合影响。经因子分析和逐步回归等方法检验，上述影响因素组合具有较为理想的建构效度和效标效度。其中，内生需求、长期导向、本地嵌入、政策激励、同行反应和协会治理等属于正面激发因素，对集群企业参与内生性集体行动具有积极促进作用，而集群规模和集群类型等则属于负面阻碍因素，对集群企业参与内生性集体行动具有消极抑制作用。     

Endogenous innovation under New Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model

This paper constructs an endogenous growth model using the framework of New Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models. We incorporate the Schumpeterian approach that generates seemingly sticky prices and reinterpret the Calvo mechanism from the perspective of Bertrand competition and successful entrepreneurs. Our results demonstrate that both positive productivity shocks and endogenous innovation have a negative effect on subsequent endogenous innovation. These self-destructive effects of endogenous innovation might account for the IT productivity paradox and productivity slowdown seen in advanced countries. Furthermore, it is shown that there are both neutral and non-neutral properties of monetary policy shocks. They are neutral in terms of the growth effect, but non-neutral in terms of the level effect. In particular, expansionist monetary policies are desirable to facilitate endogenous innovation.     

Socio-institutional determinants of educational resource efficiency according to the capability approach: An endogenous stochastic frontier analysis

We investigate the role of private and public resources in educational attainments and the socio-institutional determinants of educational resource efficiency in Italy. Following the Sen's capability approach, we consider social capital and the quality of government part of the social conversion factors through which resources can be converted into human capabilities, such as education. We analyze the case of Italy by constructing a new longitudinal dataset from 1993 to 2012, using repeated cross sections from the main social survey of the Italian Statistical Institute and a panel stochastic frontier model that takes into account endogeneity. The results show the relative importance of private resources (measured by an ad hoc constructed wealth index), the complementarity between private wealth and public expenditures on education, and the positive impact of social capital and the quality of government on educational resource efficiency.     

金融资源配置、技术进步与经济高质量发展

随着我国发展阶段及内外部条件的变化,科技创新已成为新时代引领我国经济高质量发展的核心驱动力。本文以金融驱动技术进步的视角,构建内生增长DSGE模型,分析金融资源配置、技术进步和经济增长之间的关系。研究佐证了我国技术创新的逆周期性,并发现金融资源在企业生产性投资与创新投资之间的分配,可以通过改变生产要素投入规模和技术进步率两种途径影响经济增长,且这两种影响之间存在“跷跷板”关系,但后者更具主导性。在此基础上,诠释了金融、技术与经济的动态传导机制:经济扩张期,企业生产规模扩张,金融资源对生产性投资的支持增加,对创新的投入相对减少,技术进步率放缓;经济收缩期,企业缩减生产规模,金融资源对生产性投资的支持减少,对创新的投入相对增加,技术进步率提升。本研究的政策启示为,面对当前发展新矛盾、新挑战,应把握发展新格局、新机遇,进一步深化金融改革,优化金融资源配置机制,鼓励创新投资,充分发挥股权市场对企业研发创新的支持作用,并辅以稳健适度的宏观调控政策,为企业创新提供良性的宏观环境,激活企业创新需求,促进技术进步,推动经济高质量发展。     

中国健康资本内生折旧率估算及成因分析

"健康中国"战略背景下,准确估算健康资本折旧率对把握我国人口健康资本动态变化具有重要意义。在经典的健康资本需求框架内,正式引入年龄、环境与健康投资的异质性,扩展构建健康资本内生折旧率模型。基于永续盘存法基本原理,结合精算模型与生命表数据,对不同年龄、性别和风险假设下我国居民健康资本折旧率进行估算与分析。研究发现,我国居民健康资本折旧率存在明显的年龄差异与性别差异:中青年阶段折旧率缓慢提高、老年阶段加速上升;男性健康资本折旧率始终高于女性。随着人口老龄化程度加深,年龄对健康资本折旧率的影响下降,健康投资的影响则持续增强。提高健康投资回报率,是降低折旧率进而提高我国人均健康资本存量的关键。     

On the closed-form solution of an endogenous growth model with anticipated consumption

This paper derives a closed-form solution of the AK endogenous growth model with logarithmic preferences and anticipated future consumption which enters additively into effective consumption. We get an explicit representation of the time paths of the economic variables in level by resorting to Gaussian Hypergeometric functions. We compare the model with anticipated future consumption to the model with habit formation. The maximum utility attainable in the model with anticipation is shown to be higher than the one attainable in the model with habits. Using the derived explicit expressions, we perform some comparative-dynamics and -statics analyses with respect to relevant parameters. Numerical simulations complement the theoretical results. Thus, this work provides further support to the usefulness of especial functions in the study of economic dynamics.     

Internal habits formation and optimality

In a very influential model with internal habits, Carroll et al., (2017, 2000), establish that an increase in economic growth may cause a positive change in savings. The optimality of this result, and of many other contributions using a similar framework, has been questioned by some authors who have observed that the parametrization used in these models always implies a utility function not jointly concave in consumption and habits. In this paper, we revisit the optimality issue and, using advanced techniques in Dynamic Programming, we answer the following long-standing open questions: (i) Is the solution found in Carroll et al., (2017, 2000) optimal? (ii) Is it also unique or do other optimal solutions exist?     

External constraints and endogenous growth: Why didn't some countries benefit from capital flows?

Empirical evidence on the growth benefits of capital inflows is mixed. The growth benefits accruing from capital inflows also appear to be larger for high savings countries. We explain this phenomenon using an OLG model of endogenous growth in open economies with borrowing constraints that can generate both positive and negative growth effects of capital inflows. The amount an economy can borrow is restricted by an endogenous enforcement constraint. In our setting, with physical capital and a pay-as-you-go pensions system, the steady state is unique. However, it can either be constrained or unconstrained. In a constrained economy, opening up to equity and FDI inflows can be bad for growth because it makes the domestic interest rate too low, which endogenously tightens borrowing constraints. Agents decrease savings and investment in productivity-enhancing activities resulting in lower growth. Results are reversed in an unconstrained economy. We also provide a quantitative analysis of these constraints and some policy implications.