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1.
This study evaluates a wide range of machine learning techniques such as deep learning, boosting, and support vector regression to predict the collection rate of more than 65,000 defaulted consumer credits from the telecommunications sector that were bought by a German third-party company. Weighted performance measures were defined based on the value of exposure at default for comparing collection rate models. The approach proposed in this paper is useful for a third-party company in managing the risk of a portfolio of defaulted credit that it purchases. The main finding is that one of the machine learning models we investigate, the deep learning model, performs significantly better out-of-sample than all other methods that can be used by an acquirer of defaulted credits based on weighted-performance measures. By using unweighted performance measures, deep learning and boosting perform similarly. Moreover, we find that using a training set with a larger proportion of the dataset does not improve prediction accuracy significantly when deep learning is used. The general conclusion is that deep learning is a potentially performance-enhancing tool for credit risk management.  相似文献   
2.
Exploiting a unique conditional disclosure mandate on management earnings forecasts (MEFs) in China, we examine the differential effects of voluntary and mandatory MEFs on the cost of debt. We find that firms providing voluntary MEFs have lower cost of debt than do mandatory forecasters and nonforecasters. The results of the channel analyses reveal that voluntary forecasters have greater commitment to voluntary MEFs in future periods than do mandatory forecasters and nonforecasters, and the precision, accuracy, and timeliness of MEFs are higher for voluntary forecasters than for mandatory forecasters. Additional analyses show that the differential effects of voluntary and mandatory MEFs on cost of debt are stronger for voluntary forecasters operating in opaque information environments, issuing high-quality and confirming forecasts, controlled by private shareholders, and operating in highly competitive product markets. Overall, our results indicate that, compared with mandatory MEFs, voluntary MEFs are more informative for credit investors, particularly for firms facing greater information risk and operating uncertainty.  相似文献   
3.
The purpose of this article is to contribute to an understanding of the impact of the Lebanese economic crisis on fashion buying behavior. It uses a qualitative approach by conducting semi-structured interviews with 29 Lebanese consumers. The study reveals that consumer fashion purchases are motivated by emotional, social, and functional drivers. It also indicates that subjective norms, such as societal and cultural values dictate buying behaviors. The findings provide further insights into social media and highlight its influence on shaping trends and making fashion products desirable. The article concludes that Lebanese consumers exhibit impulsive buying behavior, and explains how fashion brands can remain relevant amidst a wrenching economic crisis.  相似文献   
4.
This article offers a bottom‐up contribution to the fixity–motion literature. It aims to unravel the apparent contradiction of real estate spatial fixity in Spain, which is portrayed both as a barrier to accumulation and as a unique source of investment by different capitalist actors. Empirically, it describes the shifts in real estate ownership and changes in profit‐making strategies that have taken place across the real estate sector during the crisis years, and the role of the state in these shifts. The article asserts that the idea of spatial fixity representing a spatial barrier for accumulation does not necessarily apply in the Spanish case. It further claims that the tensions in capital circulation through real estate are not only to be found in the action of time, but in different state strategies pursued by various actors. The opposing representations of fixity are the result of state regulation of interest rates, taxation and risk weighting. The state also increasingly promotes land rents as a source of liquidity creation.  相似文献   
5.
Using a novel data set for the U.S. states, this paper examines whether household debt and the protracted debt deleveraging help explain the dismal performance of U.S. consumption since 2007 in the aftermath of the housing bubble. By separating the concepts of deleveraging and debt overhang—a flow and a stock effect—we find that excessive indebtedness exerted a meaningful drag on consumption over and beyond wealth and income effects. The overall effect, however, is modest—‐around one sixth of the slowdown in consumption between 2000–06 and 2007–12—and mostly driven by states with particularly large imbalances in their household sector. This might be indicative of non‐linearities, whereby indebtedness begins to bite only when misalignments from sustainable debt dynamics become excessive.  相似文献   
6.
The authors investigate the global and extreme dependence structure between investor sentiment and stock returns in 7 European stock markets (Belgium, France, Germany, Greece, the Netherlands, Portugal, and the UK), over the period 1985–2015. Global dependence refers to the correlation of changes in sentiment and stock returns over the whole range of these 2 variables, and extreme dependence refers to the local correlation of high (i.e. asymptotic) changes in sentiment and high stock returns. Using copula models and a bootstrap procedure, 6 statistical tests are performed for this purpose. Among the results of the tests, the authors highlight those that provide evidence of contemporaneous lower extreme dependence and contemporaneous upper extreme independence between sentiment and returns. As policy implications, these results suggest that financial stability can be promoted if regulators consider the impact of their decisions on investor sentiment. Also, the results seem to support the arguments in favor of short selling ban during turmoil periods. Finally, overall, the results are relevant for both investors and regulators and reinforce the importance of considering investor sentiment to better understand the behavior of financial markets.  相似文献   
7.
The purpose of this article is twofold. First, we examine if, and to what extent, a general Kaleckian analysis of the potential effects of financialisation on income shares in advanced capitalist economies is of relevance for the three Eurozone countries under investigation—France, Germany and Spain—in the period before the recent financial and economic crisis. Second, we study changes in the financialisation–distribution nexus that have occurred in the course of and after the financial and economic crisis. We find that the countries examined here have shown broad similarities regarding redistribution before the crisis, although there are some differences in the underlying determinants. These differences have continued during the period after the crisis and have led to different results in the development of distribution since then.  相似文献   
8.
In developed economies, social expenditure is alleged to cause the rise in public debt over the last three decades. With dynamic panel data of 34 OECD countries from 1980 to 2014, we find robust evidence that the rise in public debt is not attributable to social expenditure.  相似文献   
9.
Consumers’ thinking style (e.g., dialectical thinking), which is fundamental to cognition, has been paid inadequate attention in the consumer literature. This research explores the impact of dialectical thinking on Chinese consumer responses toward crisis‐associated products/brands. Findings in three experimental studies indicate that, in comparison to those primed with nondialectical thinking, consumers primed with dialectical thinking report higher levels of purchase intention and trust for a crisis‐associated product/brand. This is the case not just for products with Chinese cultural background, but also for products with western cultural background. Consumers’ perceived severity of crises moderates the impact of dialectical thinking, with a stronger impact in a highly severe crisis situation than in a less severe one. A survey study indicates a similar pattern. These findings are important in suggesting ways of encouraging Chinese consumers to be insistent on quality standard in order to better protect their consumer rights, and moreover, for multinational corporations on how best to respond and formulate strategies of handling product‐harm crises in the Chinese market.  相似文献   
10.
本文从人口流动的区位黏性这一全新视角,将地方政府性债务的李嘉图等价命题纳入新经济地理研究框架进行理论分析。为了进一步揭示理论模型的政策含义,采用空间计量方法验证沿海地区地方政府性债务的局部正相关特征。最优的债务政策取决于经济系统的初始条件,在非对称经济结构已经存在的情况下,单纯建设本地区的基础设施只会降低区域内的交易成本,这对于那些仅着眼于投巨资用于城市“硬件”建设的地方政府来说显然是一叶障目。建议依靠基础设施网络提高区域协同创新能力,培育规模报酬递增的专业化产业集群。  相似文献   
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